Chapter 5

Military adventure

On September 19, under the help of the King of Jordan, diplomatic officials from Israel, Egypt and Syria held an informal meeting in Amman. Diplomatic representatives from China, the United States, Russia and the European Union participated in the meeting as an aid to negotiations. [bsp;   In fact, China, the United States, Europe and Russia are the leaders of the meeting.

At that time, the representatives of the side clearly stated that Israel, Egypt and Syria must stop all military mobilization operations before 0:00 on the 20th, disband the mobilized reserve forces, withdraw the regular troops stationed in the border defense line back to the military camp, prohibit combat aircraft from taking off patrols, and all ships must return to the military port within 24 hours, and open military bases for the mediators to supervise.

In order to make its position, the representatives of China and the United States also proposed that they would never support any acts of war.

It can be said that China and the United States have made the best efforts for peace.

Before this, Du Xiaolei had reached an agreement with the US Secretary of State in Washington to jointly resolve the Middle East crisis and prevent the outbreak of war.

The problem is that this is not the common will of all parties.

During the mediation process, the EU and Russia did not perform well. For example, the EU clearly stated that Israel's mobilization mechanism was more effective, so Israel should stop military mobilization first and accept supervision from international forces. Russia raised the Golan Heights issue, believing that if the Syria-Israel territorial dispute cannot be resolved, it will not be able to eradicate the turbulent factors in the Middle East, and sooner or later it will lead to a war crisis again.

According to the information released later, the EU and Russia had reached a secret agreement with Egypt and Syria at that time.

Simply put, after Egypt recognized the EU's sphere of influence in North Africa and promised not to encourage Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya to join the "Great Arab League", the EU supported Egypt's establishment of the "Great Arab League" in politics and diplomacy. From a realistic perspective, what Egypt had to do first was to use the Syria-Israel territorial dispute to establish the "Egypt-Syrian axis", and then win over other Arab countries. In this way, in this crisis, Egypt must intensify conflicts and even engage in wars.

As for Russia, its core interest in the Middle East is Syria.

Before China made a big move into the Middle East, Syria has always been Russia's main aid target in the Middle East, and Russia is also Syria's biggest backer. Unfortunately, compared with China, Russia's strength is much worse. Affected by natural disasters, China successfully won over Syria in just one year, causing Russia to lose its most important allies in the Middle East and its influence on the Middle East.

The problem is that China has not made any commitment on the issue that Syria is most concerned about.

This is also true. After the crisis broke out, Russia made a comeback and used the Golan Heights issue to win over Syria and weaken China's impact on Syria.

When the opinions of the four parties are not unified, it is naturally difficult to achieve results in the mediation work.

After six hours of intense negotiations, Israel, Egypt and Syria reached only one symbolic agreement, that is, no longer expanding the scope of military mobilization.

Because the three countries have issued a comprehensive mobilization order, this agreement has no practical significance.

As long as mobilization is still going on, war cannot be avoided.

By the afternoon of that day, Mu Haoyang had submitted the seventh military situation analysis report to Li Pingko.

According to Mu Haoyang's analysis, if war is unavoidable, Israel will attack first and focus on the direction of the Sinai Peninsula, striving to defeat the Egyptian ground troops that had entered the Sinai Peninsula within 24 hours. During this period, the Israeli army mainly defended the defense on the Golan Heights to resist the attack from Syria. When the battle in the Sinai Peninsula ended, the Israeli generals rushed north.

Because there are too many changes, Mu Haoyang did not give a final conclusion.

In fact, before the war breaks out, no one can tell what it will be like.

Not to mention, Egypt's main force is not in the Sinai Peninsula, but on the west bank of the Suez Canal. According to the peace agreement signed between Egypt and Israel more than 40 years ago, Egypt cannot deploy offensive military forces on the Sinai Peninsula, but only symbolically deployed a military police force to maintain public order. In this way, even if Israel takes the initiative to attack, it may not be able to quickly defeat the Egyptian army. At most, it only expands the strategic depth and causes trouble for the Egyptian army. Because the Suez Canal is not an insurmountable natural danger, even if Israel occupys the Sinai Peninsula, it cannot be pulled.

To transfer the main force northward, we still have to focus on the Egyptian army on the other side of the canal. The result is that in the direction of the Golan Heights, it is difficult for the Israeli army to gain military advantage, or even take the initiative. If the Israeli air force cannot seize air supremacy and defeat the Egyptian and Syrian air forces within 24 hours after the outbreak of the war, even if the Egyptian ground forces fail to cross the Suez Canal, they can still use air strikes to support Syria's combat operations on the Golan Heights. As long as the Golan Heights are lost, Israel will enter the inside line to fight, and its narrow land area is simply not enough to resist the Syrian army.

The conclusion drawn from this is that the battle for the Golan Heights will determine the survival of Israel.

Based on this conclusion, Mu Haoyang made another inference, that is, Egypt and Syria took the initiative to attack, and the Egyptian army successfully crossed the Suez Canal and restrained the main force of the Israeli army. In that case, Israel would be destroyed within a week.

This inference indirectly proves Mu Haoyang's analysis that Israel will take the initiative to attack.

After Mu Haoyang submitted this situation analysis report, Li Mingyang provided a crucial piece of information: Israel's military mobilization was completed at 18 o'clock, all 800,000 reserve soldiers were built, and 120 reserve army brigades will be deployed before 22 o'clock.

It is undeniable that Israel's mobilization mechanism is indeed very good.

If the population ratio is the basis, Israel's mobilization ability is definitely the best in the world. If the mobilization of equipment and other hardware facilities is included, Israel is definitely a military power that can make any opponent afraid, because Israel mobilizes not only 800,000 reserve soldiers, but also all the main combat equipment of 120 army brigades, including the sealed 3,000 main battle tanks.

Only countries and nations that are always under existential threats can have such strong war mobilization capabilities.

The problem is that Israel's mobilization capabilities do not bring substantial security.

After completing the mobilization, the total strength of the Israeli Army exceeded one million, with 5,000 main battle tanks, 7,800 armored combat vehicles, 3,200 self-propelled artillery and rocket launchers, 4,800 various towing artillery and large-caliber mortars, as well as countless coaxless guns, small-caliber machine guns, rocket launchers, anti-tank missiles, individual air defense missiles, etc., as well as millions of individual weapons.

If the force is divided by the land area, it is equivalent to a row of each square kilometer.

Unfortunately, compared with the already growing Egypt and Syria, Israel's military strength is still not strong enough.

After Egypt and Syria complete mobilization, the total army will exceed 3 million, with 7,800 main battle tanks, 12,600 armored combat vehicles, 5,600 self-propelled artillery and rocket launchers, 8,400 various towing artillery and large-caliber mortars

More importantly, in terms of quality, the gap between the two sides is still obvious.

Take the main battle tanks as an example. The total number of "Mekava 6" main battle tanks that the Israeli army can take is about 800, while the fourth generation main battle tanks in Egypt and Syria exceeded 2,000. As the main force, the third generation main battle tanks, namely the "Mekava 5" and "Mekava 4" in Israel, had a total of only 2,400, while the third generation main battle tanks in Egypt and Syria exceeded 3,800.

Perhaps, on other battlefields, the Army is just a secondary role.

In the narrow Middle East battlefield, no matter how powerful the air force is, the army is still the key force in determining the outcome for the vast majority of the time.

In fact, even in air power, Israel has no advantage.

In terms of total combat aircraft, Israel only has about 1,200, while Egypt and Syria have more than 2,000 aircraft. In terms of the quality of fighter jets, Israel has no more fifth-generation fighters than Egypt, while the number of fourth-generation fighters on both sides is one to one or seven.

Although Israel has a relatively obvious advantage in combat command system and also in terms of pilot quality, on such a narrow battlefield, when the military density reaches saturation, the suddenness of the offensive and the scale of the force are often determined by the suddenness of the offensive and the scale of the force.

In addition, Israel has an extremely serious fatal flaw: it has no strategic depth.

Although the land area of ​​Egypt and Syria is not vast enough, completely within the attack range of the Israeli Air Force, Israel's land area is even narrower, not only within the attack range of the Egyptian and Syrian Air Force, but also within the attack range of the long-range artillery.

For Israel, as long as the local military base is hit, defeat is the inevitable result.

More importantly, as long as the border defense line, especially the Golan Heights, is broken, Israel will not have any ability to resist the enemy's armored forces.

Tactically speaking, even if Israel can successfully attack, it may not be able to win.

The reason is very simple. In addition to the air force, Egypt and Syria have enough long-range artillery, as well as thousands of tactical ballistic missiles with very good accuracy, which are enough to use missiles to paralyze Israel's air bases, causing the Israeli air force to completely lose its combat capabilities.

Without air cover, it will be difficult for the Israeli Army, which does not have the advantage at all.

These factors determine that Egypt and Syria are likely to take military adventures based on their existing advantages. After Israel determines that the other party will definitely take military adventures, it will launch a sudden attack without hesitation. Even if it does not seek to defeat Egypt and Syria alone, it will still buy time for the United States to intervene.

Now, the problem has been handed over to Li Pingko.
Chapter completed!