.Chapter 8 Economic Account

What is the relationship between the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait?

If the correlation between the East China Sea dispute and the Taiwan Strait issue is mainly reflected in politics, then the correlation between the South China Sea dispute and the Taiwan Strait issue is mainly reflected in military affairs.

As long as China can prove that it has the ability to prevent foreign intervention forces from swaying the situation in the South China Sea, it can prove that it has the same ability to prevent foreign forces from intervening in the Taiwan Strait. This so-called "foreign force" refers to the United States. Without the support of the United States, Taiwan will have no choice.

The question now is, is China capable of resolving the South China Sea dispute?

Huang Zhibo's answer is simple and clear: Military is not a problem, the key is political decision-making.

Mu Haoyang's view is the same. It is not difficult to defeat Vietnam. Even if the United States directly intervenes, China has enough military force to win a local war in the South China Sea. The key is whether the top leaders can support politics, that is, give up the policy of peace negotiations that has adhered to for decades.

This answer is obviously not that simple.

"If military action is taken, how sure is it?" Li Pingkoo did not rush to give the answer, but first asked the most concerned question, which was also the reason why he came to the Chief of Staff in person. "To put it bluntly, if force is needed, how much investment is needed and how much time is needed?"

Huang Zhibo smiled and left this question to Mu Haoyang.

"It depends on what kind of result is needed." After listening for a long time, Mu Haoyang had already made preparations. "If it were just to recover the islands and reefs and prevent Vietnamese ships from entering the South China Sea, at most, they only needed to use a land battle battalion and the South China Sea fleet. The total investment of troops would not exceed 30,000, and the combat time would be within one week."

Li Pingko frowned, as if he was a little unbelievable.

"I haven't figured out how to fight it, but I can talk about it roughly." Mu Haoyang paused for a moment and said, "After the war broke out, we will first attack Vietnam's naval bases and air bases, destroy Vietnam's military command system through surgical air strikes, and paralyze Vietnam's military forces. With Vietnam's military strength, air strikes will last for about three days, and then dispatch marines to capture the islands and reefs occupied by Vietnam, and the fleet will be responsible for the maritime blockade. Air strikes will continue, and if necessary, Vietnam's national infrastructure, such as roads, bridges, power stations, factories, etc., until Vietnam admits defeat."

"A week is enough?"

Mu Haoyang nodded and said, "The South China Sea Fleet has about 100 carrier-based fighters, about 300 shore-based fighters and bombers. Using 500 to 600 air force combat aircraft can ensure that more than 1,000 air strikes are carried out every day. Vietnam is not a big country, with a very narrow land area, and most of its strategic goals are concentrated at the north and south ends, and air strikes last for up to one week."

"What if the United States sends troops to intervene?" Du Lei asked.

"Does the United States have a reason to send troops?" Mu Haoyang smiled and said, "Even if there is, the United States will not fight us more than a thousand kilometers away from our country for Vietnam. Although the US Navy's advantages are very obvious, we are confident that we will win."

"Will the combat time be extended?" Li Pingko asked afterwards.

"It shouldn't be." Mu Haoyang breathed a sigh of relief and said, "If the United States participates in the war, we have to change our focus and mainly attack foreign intervention forces. As long as we defeat the US military on the marine battlefield, the Vietnamese authorities will make a decision quickly and may immediately admit defeat."

Li Pingkou nodded thoughtfully, as if he understood what Mu Haoyang meant.

"Of course, the possibility of the United States joining the war is slim. If..."

Huang Zhibo suppressed his hand and stopped Mu Haoyang's words and said: "Although we have to consider external factors, it is by no means the first thing to consider. According to the Foreign Minister's introduction, the United States' strategic intention is very obvious. Vietnam is just a chess piece used by the United States to restrain us, and it is a chess piece that can be sacrificed. Therefore, we must consider another issue, namely whether we can obtain a stable surrounding environment as a result."

"This is also what I worry about the most." Li Pingkoo smiled and then sighed.

Du Lei glanced at the two of them and said, "Defeating Vietnam in the military will definitely give Vietnam a new understanding and make Vietnam change its basic policies."

"How sure are you?" Huang Zhibo shook his head and said, "We taught Vietnam a lesson half a century ago, and at that time they all believed that thirty years of peace had been achieved. Although it seems that we have achieved 50 years of peace, it has not fundamentally solved the problem, but has made Vietnam worse. If the same trick repeats itself, we will achieve thirty years of peace at most, and no one can guarantee that Vietnam will not go astray again."

After Huang Zhibo said this, Du Lei didn't say much.

"My opinion is that if we don't fight or talk, we must fight thoroughly." Huang Zhibo glanced at Li Pingkou and said, "Although as a soldier, I should not be too concerned about political matters, I personally believe that since we are working hard to create a peaceful and stable situation in Southeast Asia, we should look at it longer-term. For us, Southeast Asia is a strategic place that must be won and controlled. Only by eliminating worries can we make great efforts in the Indian Ocean and play a greater role in other regions. Since the opportunity is right in front of us, we should seize and use this opportunity to fundamentally change the strategic pattern of Southeast Asia."

“How to change?”

"Start with the encirclement and suppression of Vietnam."

Li Pingkoo frowned, as if he was a little hesitant.

Huang Zhibo did not continue to say it because he had already said enough.

After hesitating for a moment, Mu Haoyang said: "If we aim to encircle Vietnam, we can unite Laos and Cambodia and divide ASEAN through this."

"How to unite?" Li Pingko looked at Mu Haoyang and said, "Laos and Cambodia are both weak, and their economic and military strength are not worth mentioning, so it is not helpful at all."

“What we need is not economic and military help, but political help.”

"politics?"

Mu Haoyang was a little hesitant, after all, this was a political topic.

"General Mu, there are only a few of us here. Just say anything." Li Pingkoo smiled and said, "Sometimes, your soldiers are more direct in their view of the problem, so I came here."

Huang Zhibo nodded to Mu Haoyang.

"Simply put, we need to use Laos and Cambodia. A direct point is to use Laos and Cambodia to launch a war against Vietnam."

"this……"

"There are territorial and territorial waters disputes between Laos and Vietnam, especially Cambodia and Vietnam. Although Laos and Cambodia are not our allies for the time being, they are very close to us and are not aligned with us. As long as we offer good enough conditions, we can get support from Laos and Cambodia. In this way, we can get support from some ASEAN countries and limit Vietnam's actions diplomatically. More importantly, as long as Laos and Cambodia and Vietnam are in conflict, the South China Sea dispute is only an affiliated issue of this conflict."

“That is, can we get more political support?”

Mu Haoyang nodded and said, "More importantly, this can provide us with a reason to fight ground war."

"Ground war?" Du Lei said in a startle moment, "I think that if there is no absolute need, ground war should not be fought."

Li Pingko nodded and expressed his support for Du Lei's point of view.

"It is undeniable that fighting a ground war in Vietnam will definitely encounter a lot of trouble. Moreover, more than 60 years ago, the United States, which was in full swing, failed to win in Vietnam, so some people will definitely doubt whether we can surpass the United States. But we also have to admit that if we want to completely solve the problem, we have to fight a ground war."

"What is the purpose?" Li Pingko asked.

“Support a pro-China regime in Vietnam.”

"this……"

"Maybe, this regime will not exist for too long, but it will definitely greatly reduce our war burden and provide us with decades of peace and stability." Mu Haoyang paused for a moment and said, "More importantly, Vietnam's reform and opening up lasted for more than 30 years and has experienced three generations. We have had similar experiences, so there is reason to believe that Vietnam is no longer the Vietnam it was in the past. As long as we grasp other policies, we can disintegrate the fighting spirit of the Vietnamese and change our minds."

“What policy?”

"After the war, helping Vietnam achieve modernization and economically assimilate Vietnam has to rely on us and only on us."

"It takes a lot of time, maybe decades."

"It's about ten to twenty years, but the war will only last for a few months."

Li Pingko smiled and did not refute Mu Haoyang.

Although Mu Haoyang did not mention it, Li Pingko had already thought of a more critical issue, that is, helping Vietnam to carry out post-war reconstruction will also be beneficial to China.

Here, the Second Korean War was involved.

By 2030, the war dividends China received in the Second Korean War were almost used up, that is, North Korea had completed post-war reconstruction, becoming the most active economy in Northeast Asia, basically achieving industrialization, and is moving rapidly towards modernization. Although North Korea has lost its economic strength and must rely heavily on China, the economic achievements of North Korea are obvious to all. According to the evaluation of some Western media, it is a miracle that North Korea has undergone a huge change in the past fifteen years. Now North Korea has been regarded as the most promising country in Northeast Asia and even the entire Asia. Because North Korea attaches great importance to the financial industry, it is still called Switzerland in the East.

China has also gained huge benefits by helping North Korea carry out post-war reconstruction and national modernization.

To be precise, China's private economy has achieved huge benefits.

However, North Korea's benefits are declining, and when the country still has not achieved full marketization, Chinese private enterprises need a new growth point.

North Korea has only more than 20 million people, which provides China with a golden period of development for fifteen years.

There are 110 million people in Vietnam. If we can seize this opportunity, let alone fifteen years, maybe within thirty years, Chinese private enterprises will not need to worry about development space.

Economically, this battle must be fought...
Chapter completed!