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Chapter 2: Big waves for gold (4)

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Looking at Zhou Tian's charming face, Zhao Zhenzhong was also a little curious about how much profit she had gained so much that she was so contented. He asked with a smile: "Depending on how you look, you should have gained a lot, but how many of them are there?"

"I won't say it for now, guess." Zhou Tian told Zhao Zhenzhong almost clearly on his smile.

"Haha, then I'll guess." Zhao Zhenzhong couldn't bear to discourage Zhou Tian's interest, so he speculated based on the stock market situation she mentioned earlier, "When I returned to China in 25 years, the more than 24 million US dollars we brought were left after paying some equipment payments. Excluding the 1 million US dollars as your daily expenses in the United States for several years, there should be 22 million US dollars invested in the stock market."

"Last year, the largest gain was radio stocks, with the stock price rising almost 400%. However, considering all factors, our returns should not reach this level every year. I'll give it a discount, and calculate it based on the annual returns being twice the principal. From 26 years to now, we will temporarily calculate based on the 4-year earnings time. It turns out that our 22 million US dollars can grow to about 1.782 billion US dollars at most."

"However, I think there shouldn't be so many."

Zhou Tian was stunned at first, but then became even more proud. He smiled and said, "Our income has not reached an annual growth rate of 200% in the other few years except in 1928. However, our income is much higher than your calculation result."

"The annual rate of return is less than 200%, but the result is more than I have calculated? How is this possible?" Zhao Zhenzhong was incredible.

"Hehe, Lao Zhao, when my sister introduced the US stock market just now, there was one aspect that my sister did not introduce. That is, before the Federal Reserve banned margin trading loans in February this year, the US stock market was filled with margin trading. If the margin ratio was 10%, then you pay $100. After the operation of Wall Street stock market loan brokers, you can enjoy the profit of $1,000 in the specified period. That is to say, as long as you pay 10% of the funds, the other 90% of the funds will be paid for you by the bank loan first. When the expiration date, you will sell the added value-added stocks and return the loan amount and interest to the bank after obtaining the profit. All the profits of the stocks belong to you. I only know about this aspect. I have to ask my sister what the actual situation is." Zhou Hao explained with a wicked smile.

"There is such a good thing? Is this the so-called financial derivative tool?" Zhao Zhenzhong was a little surprised.

"It is a financial derivative tool, but it actually plays a role in amplification of leverage." Zhou Tian explained with a smile: "But don't think that the people on Wall Street came up with such a task to help you make money. They are all more sophisticated than monkey spirits, but they won't do things that are of no benefit to themselves."

"If you want to engage in margin trading, you must first apply to the margin trading broker in the stock market to obtain a loan transaction. At the same time, pay the margin amount at different ratios. After the transaction is completed, the stocks you purchased will be automatically deposited in the bank as collateral. Of course, many of these brokers have done for you. You just need to wait for the purchased stocks to appreciate or depreciate within a certain period of time."

"If the stock you purchased appreciates, then after you make a profit from selling the stock at maturity, the principal and interest of the bank loan and commission will be deducted by the broker on your account, and you will get the gain after the stock appreciation. If the stock depreciates and its actual price is lower than the amount of guarantee they provide, the broker will remind you that you must add margin. If you do not add in time, the broker and the bank will take corresponding measures to ensure that their own interests are not lost. Specifically, it is to sell the mortgaged stock as soon as possible. If the mortgaged stock cannot make up for the losses of the bank and the broker after the sale, they will still pursue the insufficient part from you."

"In this way, through margin trading, the bank obtains loan interest and the broker receives commissions after amplification. Because there are stocks and margin that can be cashed at any time under normal circumstances as a guarantee, the loans released by the bank can be requested to be returned at any time. For banks and brokers, margin trading basically does not have to bear much risk."

After listening to Zhou Tian’s explanation, Zhao Zhenzhong pondered: “In this way, when the stock market is in an upward channel, everyone will naturally be happy. But if the stock market falls, banks and brokers will basically not suffer much losses, and the final loss will still be on the buyer. Moreover, through the amplification of margin trading, it will inevitably lead to the prevalence of speculation in the stock market and the bubble will become bigger and bigger."

"You're right." Zhou Tian nodded in agreement, "And, with the prevalence of speculation and the bubble in the stock market became bigger and bigger, and the people on Wall Street began to notice it. Its performance was the increasing margin ratio. In 1926, the margin ratio was basically around 10%, by 1927, the margin ratio was above 20%, and in 1928, the margin ratio was above 30%. As for this year, although the Federal Reserve announced in February that it was banning the issuance of loans for margin trading, some commercial banks dared to ignore this regulation. The most typical example is the National City Bank, which I mentioned to you earlier, borrowed funds from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York at a rate of 5%, and then issued loans at a rate of 15%. Of course, the margin ratio is now between 40% and 50%.

"In theory, as the margin rate continues to rise, the total amount of bank loans should be reduced. However, as the stock market continues to rise and people are in a fever, margin trading loans continue to break records. According to what I have learned, in the early 20s, loans in margin trading were used as short-term loans due to their liquidity, with a scale of between 1 billion and 1.5 billion. By the beginning of 1926, it had expanded to 2 billion to 2.5 billion US dollars. In 1927, the loan scale increased by about 1 billion, and by the end of the year it had reached 3.48078 billion US dollars. On June 1, 1928, the loan scale reached 4 billion US dollars, and on November 1, it expanded to 5 billion US dollars, and by the end of the year it rose to 6 billion US dollars. As for this year, since we have stopped using margin trading, we are not very clear about the corresponding loan scale, but it is definitely higher than at the end of last year."

"The 6 billion US dollars in this era is really crazy." Zhao Zhenzhong couldn't help but be amazed. Then he said: "After saying so much, I should tell me how much the income is, right?"

"Haha, let me tell you about the margin to let you understand why we can get a great gold harvest from the stock market in less than 4 years. Next, I will briefly talk about the returns in the past few years." Zhou Tian shook his head and smiled proudly.

"In 1926, when the margin rate was only about 10%, we entered the market when the stock market was at a low point in the spring. Through margin trading, we purchased stocks worth about 22 million US dollars with $22 million. After several buying and selling operations that year, we basically achieved the goal of doubling that year. This doubling is not a doubling of $22 million, but a doubling of $200 million. After deducting bank loan interest and various other expenses, our net profit reached 200 million US dollars."

"In 1927, due to the increase in margin rate to more than 20%, we purchased more than 700 million US dollars in stocks through margin transactions. The 700 million US dollars in stocks also basically doubled that year, becoming more than 1.3 billion US dollars. After removing about 500 million loans, interest and other expenses, our funds have reached 800 million."

"In 1928, due to the increase in margin rate again, we purchased $1.7 billion in stocks through margin trading. Because the rise of several stocks purchased in 28 years was relatively high, our net funds reached $4.3 billion that year."

"At the time of this year, margin trading has been stopped by the Federal Reserve authorities. Although margin trading still exists in the stock market, the margin ratio is as high as about 50%, and secondly, our funds are already relatively high, and it is not convenient to conduct margin trading anymore, so we only use our own funds to conduct related operations. The funds recovered are now 6.3 billion US dollars, and it is estimated that by the end of the month, we can recover at least more than 8 billion US dollars in total."

"How is it? Is it considered a surprise?" Zhou Tian asked with a smile on his head.

"Haha, of course!" Zhao Zhenzhong never thought that the original funds had grown to such a level after less than four years of operation. He couldn't help laughing and said, "Then Ba, who was called the 'Stock God' in the future, is really far behind you, Xiaotian."

"It can't be compared like this." Zhou Tian waved his hand and said, "I used the killer to know in advance that the stock market changed between 26 and 29 years, plus the effective means of margin trading, to get such a rich return. It can also be said that I was cheating. And those two people were called "Stock God" by relying on their real talents and real ideas. They cannot be compared."

"Haha, no matter what, it is worth being happy to have such fruitful results! There is basically no need to worry about construction funds in the future." Zhao Zhenzhong was overjoyed. Then, he remembered something and asked: "Such a huge amount of funds entering and leaving the stock market will not attract the attention of those big forces, right?"

"No." Zhou Tian was very sure, "I have been observing the stock market for half a year in 25 years and have long thought about it. In addition, I met several celebrities at the end of 25 years. With some help from them, I spread the funds into many small shares and used the names of everyone to carry out related operations, which would definitely not attract the attention of those major forces."

"You did so many things by yourself?" Zhao Zhenzhong was really surprised that Zhou Tian could operate such a huge amount of funds smoothly.

"No. I also have a small team here. I call it the 'Fund Management Committee', which is under my charge and Tang Ming assisted. The members of the Fund Management Committee were selected from the first two batches of overseas students, and are sensitive to economics or numbers. There are 11 people in total. They also have specialized personnel selected from the next few periods of overseas students. These specialized personnel are responsible for contacting stock market trading brokers and workers in our factory who we borrowed from. At the beginning of last year, we took out a sum of funds to establish Huamei Investment Company to operate investment business. Our Fund Management Committee is hidden in it, specifically responsible for the management and operation of our team's funds. In addition, the convenience provided by the celebrities I know, there is no need to worry that there will be major forces to pay attention to us."

"How many times have you mentioned several celebrities? Who are they?" Zhao Zhenzhong was a little curious.

"Hehe, I won't tell you now. I'll take you to visit them at that time and you'll know." Zhou Tian proudly kept him in a silence.

"How do you plan to arrange the funds withdrawn from the stock market? They may not be insured in the future if they are placed in the bank." Zhao Zhenzhong reminded.

"Stock market growth is just the beginning. We will also short the US stock market in the futures market, secretly buy a large amount of gold in London and other measures. Anyway, you don't have to worry about our lack of money in the future." Zhou Tian said confidently.

"Since you talk about the futures market, I will make a request. In the futures market this winter and next spring, we will buy a large amount of grain crops such as wheat, corn, soybeans, as well as strategic materials such as cotton, fine copper, and high-quality steel. Grain and cotton are mainly used to rescue victims caused by the warlords in China this year and next year, and other materials are reserved in advance." Zhao Zhenzhong asked.

"It should be fine to buy materials in the futures market. We can now sell 3-month to half a year futures contracts at a price 10% lower than the market price. Before the contract is delivered, we will buy a large number of contracts to close the position when the price drops. At that time, we will not only obtain extremely low prices of grain and other materials, but also make another profit." Zhou Tian was careful in his calculations.

"Haha, you are responsible for the specific operation. I will only make a request. After a few days, I will learn about the situation here in detail. Let us make a plan to take advantage of the opportunity to take advantage of the opportunity to lay a solid foundation for our future." Zhao Zhenzhong said with a smile.
Chapter completed!
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