Chapter 2: Big waves for gold (3)
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"In addition to cultivating overseas students and accumulating a large number of professional talents for future construction, we have another important purpose, which is to increase the funds we bring as soon as possible so as to provide sufficient financial guarantees for our future construction. In this era, if the United States wants to expand its funds as soon as possible, investing in the stock market is undoubtedly a shortcut to obtain considerable returns. Although this is a bit speculative, if we have sufficient preparations, we can not only swim in the stock market and fight against the wind and waves, but also use the wind and waves of the stock market to rush gold and obtain amazing returns."
"I remember when the three of us were on the ship, you suggested that Xiaohao and I use the ship's electronic library to find and record some information that we can use in this era, and also focused on me to pay attention to the economic situation in the United States before and after the 29th century, especially the changes in the stock market. However, at that time, most of the libraries were military and engineering technology e-books. Although there were many books on social science management, there were only a few of them related to the economic situation in the United States around 29 years ago. After all, it turned out that more than 120 years had passed since 1929."
"From that limited information, I did not find detailed records about the US stock market 29 years ago. I only found some news cited in the New York Times and Wall Street Journal in the 1920s, including some stock market fluctuations and some very representative stock price changes at that time. These were all recorded one by one by one by one by one and memorized in my heart."
"Although these news is incomplete, we can still roughly understand the fluctuations in the US stock market in the 1920s, especially the price changes of some famous stocks. This made me feel at ease in the subsequent stock market operations. However, due to the lack of detailed information, I had been unable to figure out some of the problems before I arrived in the United States, such as the specific connection between the 'points' in the average index of the 25 industrial stock price set by the New York Times at that time and the stock prices represented by the US dollar. It was not until I arrived in the United States in 1925 that I truly understood the specific meaning of the 'points' in this index by understanding the stock prices in the stock market and comparing the stock market news published in the New York Times."
"In the second half of 1925, I did not rush to invest the funds I brought in into the stock market, but instead used this six months to fully understand the U.S. stock market and the financial industry in this era, laying the foundation for the future investment of a large amount of funds into the stock market."
With Zhou Tian's slightly complacent and excited narration, Zhao Zhenzhong also gained a general understanding of the current US stock market.
Although this and that problem occurred in the United States before the economic crisis in 1929, overall, the years of the 1920s were still considered a good time for the United States. Production and employment were both high and showed a trend of continued growth. Although wages did not rise very quickly, prices were stable. Take the price of wheat as an example. In 1920, the average price of 1 bushel was USD 1. However, before the 29th crisis, the average price of 1 bushel was only about USD 1.7, and even at the highest price did not exceed USD 20. In other words, a ton of wheat was only a price of more than USD 60. This has a lot to do with the slow growth of agricultural products, but it can also be seen that the growth rate of inflation in the United States was not large in the past 10 years before the crisis.
Although there are still many poor people in the United States in this era, many people live a well-off life. It can be seen from relevant statistics that the United States before the great crisis was still full of vitality.
From 1925 to the great crisis of 1929, the number of manufacturing companies in the United States increased from 183,900 to 206,700, and their output value increased from 60.8 billion US dollars to 68 billion US dollars. The Federal Reserve Industrial Production Index was only 67 points in 1921 (100 from 1923 to 1925), and rose to 110 points in July 1928, and even as high as 129 points in June 1929.
In 1926, the United States produced 4.301 million cars. Three years later, in 1929, the United States' production reached 5.358 million vehicles, an increase of more than 1 million vehicles from 1926. The record set by the United States' automobile production in 1929 is even comparable to the statistics of 5.7 million vehicles in 1953 after World War II.
As the US economy grew in the 1920s, many American companies began to grow and grow. General Motors, Telephone and Boeing in the United States developed rapidly during this period. These companies not only have good returns at present, but also have promising prospects. In addition, the stock prices of American companies in the early 1920s were relatively low, investors could obtain good dividend returns from some powerful large companies every year, attracting more and more people to invest in the stock market, and the US stock market also flourished.
In the second half of 1924, stock prices began to rise, and the rise continued until the end of 1925. At the end of May 1924, the average price index of 25 industrial stocks in the New York Times was 106 points, and by the end of the year it rose to 134 points. As of December 31, 1925, the stock price index rose by almost 50 points, reaching 181 points. The stock price trend for the whole year was very stable, with only two months of which, and the stock price did not rise significantly.
There was some sign of recession in 1926. At the beginning of the year, statistics showed that the US economy shrank slightly. This led many people to believe that the rise in stock prices in the previous year was unreasonable. Starting from February, the US stock market fell continuously, and by March, the stock market almost reached its lowest point since 1925. The New York Times Industrial Stock Index fell from 181 points at the beginning of 1926 to 172 points at the end of February, and then plummeted by nearly 30 points, and had fallen to 143 points by the end of March. Then, the stock market stopped falling and rebounded. Another moderate decline in the stock market occurred in October. However, the stock market quickly recovered, and by the end of 1926, the stock price had basically returned to the level at the beginning of the year.
In 1927, the US economy began to grow continuously, and the stock market also entered an upward channel, and a big bull market appeared. However, although stock prices rose day after day, month after month, the growth rate of stock prices could not be considered large by later standards, and it was just an important performance of reliability. In 1927, the average stock price index did not rise for only two months. As stock prices continued to rise in mid-1927, not only did the people who left due to the stock market recession last year come back, but more ordinary people were also attracted to the stock market.
In the summer of 1927, the Federal Reserve Industrial Production Index fell due to Ford's closing of the factory for producing T-models. However, with production rebounding again, by the end of 1927, the New York Times industrial stock average index reached 245 points, an annual net increase of 69 points, and an annual net increase of 39.2%.
Unlike the continued steady growth of the stock market in 1927, the US stock market in 1928 was more fanatical. Although the stock market suffered a heavy blow in June 1928, among which the radio stocks fell sharply on December 8, the stock market still stabilized and rebounded by the end of the year. In 1928, the New York Times industrial stock average rose by 86 points, which was from 245 points at the beginning of the year to 331 points at the end of the year, with an increase of 35.1%. During this year, no
Although the wire stocks suffered a heavy blow at the end of the year, they rose from 85 points to 420 points throughout the year, with an increase of 394.1%! The stocks of several other famous companies also achieved good growth results. Among them, DuPont's stock rose from 310 points to 525 points, an increase of 69.35%; Montgomery Ward's stock rose from 117 points to 440 points, an increase of 276.1%; Wright Air's stock rose from 69 points to 289 points, an increase of 318.8%.
The bull market for two consecutive years has made people begin to rush to the stock market fanatically. Coupled with the influence of some big shots’ optimism about the economy and the confident remarks on the stock market, the stock market in 1929 became even more crazy.
In 1929, President Coolidge made a passionate speech a few days before leaving office, saying that the current economic situation was "absolutely healthy" and that stocks were "cheap at current prices". Inspired by his optimism, the New York Times industrial stock average rose by 30 points in January 1929 compared with November after the presidential election.
Although the U.S. Federal Reserve authorities later suppressed the stock market, their position was not firm because the authorities were in a conflicting state of policy choices. For example, in February 1929, the Federal Reserve authorities issued a letter banning commercial banks from using Federal Reserve credit to participate in stock market speculation to tighten their money. This news caused the stock market to suffer a heavy blow. But in late March, Charles E?, president of the National City Bank, one of the largest and most influential commercial banks in the United States, the president of the National City Bank, one of the largest and most influential commercial banks in the United States.
Mitchell made a public statement, saying that "National City Bank will provide the funds necessary to prevent liquidation, and will borrow funds from the New York Federal Reserve Bank to do what the Federal Reserve warns not to do." Since Mitchell is also a director of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, and the Federal Reserve authorities remain silent about Mitchell's statement, this statement was interpreted as the Federal Reserve authorities asked Mitchell to come forward to resolve the current stock market dilemma, and the stock market regained confidence.
After Mitchell made a public statement, the stock market resumed its rapid upward trend at the end of March. In June 1929, the New York Times industrial stock average index rose by 52 points, another 25 points in July, and 77 points in two months. Although August is not over yet, judging from the end of the few trading days, it is basically certain that it is still an upward situation again. The New York Times industrial stock average index rose by only 86.5 points in the whole year of 1928.
Not only the prices of common stocks have risen all the way, but the scale of speculation has also expanded at an astonishing rate. Broker loans increased at a rate of $400 million a month in the summer of 1929. Although the summer is not over yet, the total amount of broker loans is now estimated to have exceeded $15 billion, more than half of which are provided by domestic and foreign companies and individuals. They have taken a fancy to the extremely high returns paid by the New York currency market. This summer, the interest rates for short-term loans are rarely below 6%. The normal interest rates are between 7% and 12%. At one point, the interest rates for short-term loans reached 15%.
The entire stock market is full of fanaticism, filled with increasingly larger bubbles, and eventually collapses.
"Have we withdrawn the funds in the stock market? How much has it grown now?" After hearing what Zhou Tian said, Zhao Zhenzhong asked with concern.
"Our funds will be withdrawn by the end of this month. As for the doomsday carnival before the arrival of the great crisis, we will not participate. In order to avoid attracting the attention of the major forces in the United States." Zhou Tian said confidently, and smiled at Zhao Zhenzhong with a complacent look: "As for how much we can gain from the stock market now, although there are still some stocks that are not sold and cannot be finalized, there are still rough numbers. This is a harvest you will never imagine."
Chapter completed!