Chapter 56 Window Paper
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On December 16, 2034, the fifth verification of Japan ended.
In the afternoon of the same day, the chief representative of China in the International Atomic Energy Agency Verification Mission announced to the media that the fifth verification still did not solve the substantive problems, that is, China's request for a surprise inspection of suspicious facilities was not approved, and even the normalization of verification was rejected, and China will take necessary measures to do so.
Now, the situation is serious.
After the fourth verification in September, China's Executive Vice Premier and Foreign Minister Du Xiaolei said that if the fifth verification still fails to make significant progress, China will take necessary countermeasures against Japan's secret nuclear weapons program.
At that time, Western media reported that China was likely to impose a strategic embargo on Japan.
Chinese officials have sent another threat signal that the Chinese government is about to take substantial action.
Two days later, after the Japanese negotiating delegation unilaterally withdrew, the negotiations on oil and gas resources exploration and development in the East China Sea of China and Japan broke down.
It can be said that this is the most unwise action taken by the Japanese authorities before the war broke out.
Although judging from the situation at that time, Japan withdrew from resource negotiations mainly to put pressure on China, or divert China's attention and reduce the verification problem, Japan overestimated the importance of the East China Sea oil and gas resources to China, which overestimated the significance of this move.
It must be admitted that this is a major defeat for Japan on the diplomatic battlefield, or a major victory for China's diplomatic struggle.
Before this, almost everyone who paid attention to Sino-Japanese relations believed that China urgently needed oil and gas resources in the East China Sea and would not turn against Japan.
The main basis for making this judgment is that China is very rational in resource negotiations.
At that time, China even made some major concessions, such as dividing oil and gas resources based on the actual controlled area of bilateral areas around the neutral sea area according to Japan's proposal. This means that Japan can obtain at least 45%, while China can only obtain 55%. Before that, China's bottom line was 37% open. That is to say, just this point, China gave up 15% of the resources. According to the oil and gas resources that have been identified in the neutral sea area, the economic value of 15% is about 150 billion US dollars. If it is not identified, but the existing oil and gas resources theoretically calculated, the economic value is more than 300 billion US dollars.
Perhaps, the economic value of these oil and gas resources is not very large, but the strategic value is very prominent.
Judging from the oil and gas consumption of China and Japan, oil and natural gas worth 300 billion US dollars can at least make up for China's consumption growth in the next ten years, or Japan's consumption growth in the next eighteen years, driving the total economic scale of related industries to be around 5 trillion US dollars.
It is precisely this that many people believe that China attaches great importance to the oil and gas resources in the East China Sea.
In fact, these people overlook a crucial issue.
At the end of July 2034, the first commercial fusion nuclear power plant was started in Ganzhou, Jiangxi. The first phase of the project is expected to be completed by the end of 2035, with an installed capacity of 55 million kilowatts and an annual power generation of up to 400 billion kW. The power gap in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2033 was about 340 billion kW. That is to say, after the power station is completed, the power supply problem in the Yangtze River Delta region will be completely solved. In addition, there are 2,000 volt ultra-high voltage backbone power grids from Ganzhou through Nanjing to Shanghai, passing through industrial cities such as Suzhou, and the 100 kilovolt branch power grids will lead to industrial areas such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Wenzhou. The entire project will also be completed by the end of 2035.
This shows that China is about to enter the era of fusion energy.
Although China cannot enter the fusion energy era in one step, its strategic position in oil has been greatly reduced.
For example, at the end of 2034, Huang Hanlin signed the "State Council Order No. 14" and made clear plans for the development of the national energy strategy. He will review 18 fusion nuclear power plant projects in 2035, and build eight fusion nuclear power plants with a total installed capacity of more than 50 million kilowatts by 2040, and strive to make fusion electricity account for 25% of the national power consumption by 2045. As a supporting project, four horizontal and eight vertical, totaling twelve 2,000 kilowatt-level ultra-high voltage backbone transmission lines will be built before 2040, and sixteen 5,000 kilowatt-voltage ultra-high voltage transmission lines will be built before 2045, forming an ultra-high voltage transmission network covering all large and medium-sized cities in the country.
If this speed continues, fusion nuclear energy will become China's main energy source as early as 2050.
If more stimulus policies are introduced and private enterprises are encouraged to increase investment, by 2050, fusion nuclear energy will exceed 65% of the national electricity consumption.
In fact, this is still a very conservative estimate.
After solving the problem of power supply, some other problems need to be solved, such as changing the existing energy consumption model and replacing fossil energy equipment with electric equipment. For example, vigorously promote electric vehicles and encourage private enterprises to increase their scientific research investment in power reserve technology.
Of course, this is also a gradual process.
There is only one thing that can be confirmed, that is, China is trying to get rid of its high dependence on mineral energy such as oil, natural gas, coal, etc., and fundamentally solve the energy problem.
In this case, what is the importance of the East China Sea oil and gas resources?
Perhaps within ten to twenty years, electric equipment will not be able to completely replace fossil energy equipment, such as internal combustion engines and turbine engines, but China itself has enough fossil energy reserves to at least ensure energy supply during wartime.
It can be said that China is very confident in energy issues.
For example, at the end of 2034, after signing the "State Council Order No. 14", Huang Hanlin announced a policy through the Ministry of Water Resources, that is, starting from 2040, China will gradually reduce the supply of water and electricity and strive to demolish all hydropower stations, including the Three Gorges Dam, by 2055. By 2056, only water conservancy facilities with agricultural irrigation as the main one and cultural value will be retained.
On the surface, this is an inevitable step in the transformation of China's economic development model.
For China, whose annual average national output value has reached nearly 30,000 US dollars and has initially reached the level of developed countries, protecting the environment has become more important than economic development. In fact, this is also the requirement of most citizens and the survival basis of many private enterprises.
Looking deeper is also a direct manifestation of China's high confidence in the energy field.
You should know that hydropower accounts for more than 10% of China's energy, and the initial investment is huge, and many hydropower stations are in the best state. Take the Three Gorges Dam as an example. Even by 2055, it will have less than 50 years of history, and its design life is more than 100 years.
Anyway, Japan played the wrong card this time.
On December 22, Li Pingko left Beijing and returned to the capital three days later.
Although it was not announced to the public, everyone insiders knew that Li Pingko must have gone to see Fu Xiubo and made the final decision on the war against Japan.
On the same day, Mu Haoyang received a call from Huang Zhibo and rushed over.
"I heard that you have submitted a plan of war?"
"This is a copy." Mu Haoyang was prepared for a long time and knew that Huang Zhibo would look for him, so he brought a plan. "Only planning to the battle level, the tactical details were formulated by the General Staff. However, the head of state has not made a decision yet, and there is no further information on establishing a front-line command."
"I'll feel relieved when you have made the plan." Huang Zhibo smiled and did not take the document, but said, "You don't have to worry about the matter between the head of state. When the time is ripe, he will naturally find you. As for the front-line command center, you can first determine the personnel and discuss with Lao Teng."
Mu Haoyang nodded, indicating that he understood Huang Zhibo's meaning.
"I'm looking for you, just want to hear your opinion on this war."
"view?"
“Military view.”
"this……"
"Is there anything else I can't tell me?"
Mu Haoyang smiled and said, "Mr. Huang, my main point is that this war must be decided quickly and must not be fought into a protracted war."
"The idea is right, but is it possible?"
Now, Mu Haoyang fell silent.
"You were brought out by me and can be regarded as my disciple. Your idea is not wrong, but as the supreme military commander, you must consider it comprehensively." Huang Zhibo paused for a moment and said, "Twenty years ago, I had the same idea, thinking that I could fight quickly, but the facts were just the opposite. To put it bluntly, in your position, you can't have any fantasies. Only by being well prepared can you defeat your opponent."
"You mean, it's impossible to fight quickly?"
"It's not that it's impossible militarily, but that it's impossible politically."
"this……"
"First of all, this is a total war. Our goal is not only to defeat Japan, but to completely defeat Japan and ensure that in the next few decades, Japan will no longer be threatening. If this goal cannot be achieved, then this war will have no meaning."
Mu Haoyang nodded, expressing his agreement with Huang Zhibo's point of view.
"Secondly, Japan is not a small country. Even if it is small, it has a population of more than 200 million, the fourth largest economic scale in the world, and a very complete industrial foundation. In addition, Japan also has huge strategic reserves. All of these determine that Japan will not be defeated quickly."
“It takes at least one year.”
"Is this called a quick battle?" Huang Zhibo smiled and said, "In the end, if the fight is too fierce, Japan is likely to compromise with us, which will inevitably lead to the intervention of the United States and other Western countries. If this is true, even if it does not develop into a world war, we will not get a single point of war dividend."
"In other words, I have to give Japan some hope?"
"So you have to think about the issue from a different perspective," Huang Zhibo paused for a while, saying, "For us, this war is related to the destiny of the country in the next few decades, and for Japan. Japan is so active in preparing for war, and it certainly believes that this will be the best opportunity to gain independence, or the best opportunity to get rid of American control, so that we will not rush to ask for help from the United States."
"So giving Japan some hope will be beneficial to us."
"Just understand."
Mu Haoyang certainly understood, and knew that Huang Zhibo asked him to come for this.
Chapter completed!