Chapter 22 Whoever loses who wins
When Chandler arrived, McMillan had just finished supper and was flipping through the Washington Post.
This is a rare leisure time for the president in the day. After he finished reading the newspaper, he had to sleep busy. Because the first lady went to Chicago to participate in charity activities, the president's dinner was very simple. If his family was in Washington, the president would take some time to handle some family affairs after supper.
Chandler was very tactful and waited outside until the president finished reading the newspaper before entering the restaurant.
"General, what happened so early?"
Chandler nodded and glanced at the secret service staff standing at the door.
"Jack, let me talk to the general alone."
The special service staff nodded, turned around and left the restaurant, and pulled the door.
"What happened?"
"I just received the news that China and Japan may be about to go to war."
"Is that?" Macmillan was not surprised, as if he had expected it.
"About five hours ago, a conventional submarine of the Chinese Navy was attacked dozens of kilometers east of the Diaoyu Islands, and a Japanese submarine operating nearby was also attacked. We just received a message from the Japanese Ministry of Defense that the attacked Japanese submarine had sunk."
"Sinking!?" Macmillan's brow jumped a few times.
"It should have been sunk by torpedoes."
Macmillan nodded thoughtfully and said, "Is this matter related to us?"
"No, at least the Japanese authorities don't think so."
"General, what you mean is that China and Japan think that the other side sank their submarine?"
Chandler smiled and said, "The water depth of the submarine is less than a thousand meters and is within a salvage range. However, in the short term, both sides cannot salvage the sunken submarine."
"What if the incident calms down?"
"There is nothing to worry about. Even if the sunken submarine is salvaged, there will be no evidence related to us, which will deepen the suspicion of both sides. It is just..." Chandler paused for a moment and said, "If both sides adopted a more restrained attitude like two months ago, then the situation is likely to calm down, at most it will only deepen the conflict between the two sides, and we cannot guarantee that something similar will happen again."
"You mean, we have to make a difference?"
Chandler nodded and said, "The key is, who we hope to win the final victory."
Now, Macmillan was silent.
Chandler did not continue to clarify the point because he had already spoken of crucial issues.
Fundamentally speaking, the US authorities certainly hope that Japan will win. However, if we go deep into the core of the problem, this view will not stand.
Let’s talk about Japan first. In the short term, the United States must continue to implement a defensive strategy, that is, to curb China’s rise, rather than confronting China head-on. In the United States’ global strategy, Japan plays an important role, even surpassing Britain, which is a traditional ally.
This situation makes the United States' attitude towards Japan very contradictory.
In order to contain China, the United States needs a strong, at least with independent strategic defense capabilities, but does not want Japan to have independent strategic offensive capabilities, which will become a new challenge in the Western Pacific and pose a threat to the United States' hegemony in the Western Pacific.
This contradictory attitude directly affects the United States' policy toward Japan.
For example, after announcing the withdrawal of troops from Japan, the United States did not promise to withdraw all troops at any time, but instead transferred some of the withdrawn military forces to the Okinawa Islands.
If Japan wins in this conflict, it will inevitably accelerate the pace of military independence.
It is obviously much more difficult to control Japan, which is confident that it will defend national security alone and no longer need foreign aid, than to control Japan, which still needs the protection of the United States.
From China's perspective, the consequences of losing are also difficult to predict.
Not to mention, relying on strong economic strength, China has already had the foundation to become a military power, and has gained the confidence to become a military power through the Second Korean War. Losing the East China Sea conflict will only make China suffer, and realize that it will encounter more obstacles and challenges on the road to becoming a military power, so it will lie in firewood and taste gall, pay more attention to military modernization, and prepare for the next transcendence.
So, can this conflict make China lose its foundation for becoming a military power?
The answer is obviously no: for a long time in the future, China's status as a major economic power will not be affected, but will continue to strengthen.
As long as China remains an economically vibrant country, no one can stop China from making bold attempts in the military field.
Then, in the next war, China will not only not lose, but will achieve greater victories.
For the United States, this is exactly what needs to be considered. That is, is the United States facing China head-on in the next war?
If not, there is no need to worry about it.
The problem is that as the United States gradually emerges from the adversity of the Second Korean War and consolidates its position as global hegemony, it is very likely that conflicts with China will break out again.
What made Macmillan even more worried is that if China is defeated and the Taiwanese authorities take the opportunity to attack, it will make the United States extremely passive in diplomacy. To put it simply, if Taiwan takes the opportunity to declare independence, the United States will have to make a major decision, namely whether to recognize Taiwan’s independence status.
If so, then the United States has to prepare for a total war with China in a few years, or decades later.
If not, the United States will fall into a passive diplomacy, making Taiwan's independence unlegal and giving China a reason to launch a war of unity as soon as possible.
At this time, can the United States stay out of the matter?
It can be said that as long as the Taiwan authorities take a substantial step, the United States will be forced to be involved in a regional war head-on battle with China.
Perhaps, the United States can win the next war, but it will definitely pay a very huge price.
Now, Macmillan has to look at the problem from a different perspective.
If China wins this war, what long-term impact will it have?
There is no doubt that China will take this opportunity to complete the great cause of unification and even take this opportunity to gain dominance in the Western Pacific. However, it is absolutely impossible to completely resolve the Sino-Japanese conflict, which will make the contradiction uncontrollable. It can be imagined that driven by national interests, countries that have territorial and territorial waters disputes with China will move closer to the United States and use the United States to fight against China, such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, India, etc. More importantly, Japan will not surrender to China, and will rely more on the United States, willingly act as a pawn of the United States for national interests, helping the United States consolidate the regional hegemony of the Western Pacific.
After figuring out these issues, the choice in the United States becomes very simple.
However, the real interest is not China's victory, but China must win after paying a heavy price.
Only a victory that makes China shed all its blood can curb China's expansion momentum and force China to spend a lot of time to deal with wounds after winning, rather than immediately creating new trouble for the United States. As long as China slows down, the United States can plan the next war step by step.
McMillan breathed a sigh of relief and said, "General, what do you think we should do?"
"First of all, we must let Japan understand our position that the US-Japan alliance treaty does not target disputes and conflicts outside Japan's legal territory."
Macmillan was stunned and said, "General, if this is the case, Japan will probably have to back down."
"Japan must overcome this hurdle, otherwise we will be involved in this war, which goes against our original intention." Chandler paused for a moment and said, "To encourage Japan, we must make a commitment that in defensive conflicts, we will provide Japan with the best assistance we can, including intelligence, strategic materials, weapons and equipment, and even at the economic level."
"What kind of commitment?"
"No matter what the outcome is, we will help Japan get out of the predicament."
“Is this related to conflict?”
"When considering whether to take military action, the biggest concern of the Japanese leader is not whether he can win, but whether the war has an impact on the economy, especially after the sharp deterioration of Sino-Japanese relations, can Japan withstand the pressure after the war and maintain the momentum of economic development. It is obvious that this concern is enough to allow the Japanese authorities to dispel all attempts to war and resolve the contradiction between China and Japan with a restrained attitude."
Chandler said this, and it was impossible for Macmillan to understand.
"General, your proposal is important, but this problem is not easy to solve." Macmillan sighed and said, "If we make economic commitments to Japan as you said, it means that more markets must be opened, which is equivalent to suppressing our businesses."
"President, the problem must be viewed from two aspects."
"Yeah?"
"If we want to maintain the US-Japan alliance for a long time, economic relations are essential, and the closer the better. Japan can stand on the same position as us on the Western Pacific issue, rather than moving closer to China, and economic factors play a crucial role. In any case, Japan is a country that relies heavily on import, export and processing trade, that is, it needs strategic resources and overseas markets. If we cannot take this opportunity to continue to maintain Japan's position as the largest overseas market, sooner or later it will be replaced by China. At that time, without a war, Japan will turn to China. Although strengthening opening to Japan will allow Japanese companies to gain more benefits from us, in the short term, Japan still lacks sufficient competitiveness, especially in the crucial cutting-edge military field, Japan still has to rely on us. After Japan loses this war, it will inevitably vigorously expand its arms, and our surplus in arms trade will be enough to offset other losses."
"It seems that you have thought about it."
Chandler smiled and said nothing because he had said enough.
"I will try to convince other cabinet members, but someone needs to go to Tokyo so that the Japanese Prime Minister can feel our concern for China-Japan issues at a close distance."
"this……"
"Since it's a military issue, I think you're the most suitable." Macmillan smiled and said, "I will call the Japanese Prime Minister before you arrive, and other things will depend on you. No matter what, since the fuse has been lit, you can't let it go."
"Okay, I'll set off right away."
"It's a result, remember to call me."
Chapter completed!