Chapter 10 A slap doesn't make a sound
.As the saying goes, one can't clap his hand.
At this time, Fu Xiubo "find trouble for Japan," the fundamental reason lies in Japan, especially Japan's foreign policy after the Second Korean War.
Before the Second Korean War broke out, Chandler asserted that the war would change the world and that the United States would remain invincible before the war began.
In a sense, Chandler is right.
Although on the battlefield.
The US military lost a lot and lost all the capital accumulated after the Vietnam War in a large-scale ground war that lasted less than three months. However, outside the battlefield, the United States not only did not lose, but instead won some fruits that could not be achieved through other means.
Economically, this war has brought the United States out of the quagmire of the financial crisis.
By expanding arms procurement, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to its lowest point since the outbreak of the financial crisis at the end of 2014, less than three percent, down ten percentage points from the highest 13 percent.
A higher employment rate means greater market consumption capacity, which means faster capital turnover.
The huge war consumption not only digested the excess production capacity of the United States, but also increased the level of market activity.
Starting from 2015, as the US real estate market began to recover steadily, the US economy once again started to make full use of war. Although during this period, because the federal government raised funds for war by issuing additional Treasury bonds, the Federal Reserve Bank had to increase the issuance of currency, resulting in a sharp depreciation of the US dollar, the losses were mainly those countries holding huge U.S. Treasury bonds.
Among them is China.
By increasing resource procurement during the war, the United States not only consolidated the US dollar's international freight status, but also took the opportunity to import the rise to other countries, alleviating the pressure on the rise in China.
If you have to say the loss, the euro may be the biggest loss when it comes to rising.
It is only in the short term, especially in the EU moving from economic integration to political integration.
And until the final political integration is completed, the euro does not have the capital to challenge the US dollar.
When solving the eurozone sovereign debt problem, the EU also issued a large amount of additional currencies.
This led to the depreciation of the euro, other major economies, such as China, also depreciated the RMB by increasing the issuance of currency during the same period.
Japan, which did not participate in the war, had to depreciate the yen in order to promote exports and accelerate economic recovery.
With major currencies around the world depreciating significantly, the depreciation of the US dollar is no longer a matter of life and death.
Objectively speaking, the benefits the United States has gained in economic terms, especially the quagmire of the financial crisis, and ushered in the first peak of economic growth after 2002, is enough to make up for all the losses in war and lay the foundation for the United States to regain its strength in ten or twenty years.
In addition to economic benefits, the United States also scores far more than China in diplomacy.
Needless to say, Japan and Southeast Asian countries, China's aggressive rise and tough stance on foreign policy have made these countries with territorial and territorial waters disputes turn to the United States and are very active in seeking support and assistance from the United States.
Take the Philippines for example, since 2015, the United States' military aid has increased to $5 billion.
This money is twice the Philippines’ defense expenditure!
More importantly, in South Asia, the United States also made full use of China's "performance in the Second Korean War" and won over India, which also had territorial disputes with China.
Although this one-sided foreign policy has made the United States and Pakistan go further and further, especially after the United States announced the sale of F-22 fighter jets to India and only agreed to sell F-22a to Pakistan, the Pakistani Prime Minister, Minister of Defense and Air Force Commander visited Beijing within a month, and signed the China-Pakistan Free Trade Area General Agreement, the China-Pakistan Military Cooperation Memorandum, and the intention to expand the scale of large and old procurements and purchase J-blade fighter jets. Subsequently, Pakistan also invested 1 billion US dollars.
He participated in the JX program led by Cheng Fei, the fourth-generation medium-sized multi-purpose fighter, to obtain the production license for the fighter. He also promised to purchase forty aircraft directly from Cheng Fei after mass production, and to purchase supporting maintenance equipment and weapons and ammunition from China.
There is nothing to say about the relationship between China and Pakistan.
Since the Third India-Pakistan War, that is, the United States violated its promise and imposed a military embargo on Pakistan, Pakistan has pursued a pro-China policy.
Although there are huge differences in history, culture and values between the two countries, China-Pakistan relations have withstood the test of time in the face of their common enemies. For decades.
Pakistan is the only country that has not been affected by the outside world and has always maintained close relations with China.
In a sense, Pakistan is an ally of China.
This relationship was more obvious after the Second Korean War.
In the "Memorandum of Sino-Pakistan Military Alliance", Pakistan has promised to redeem the Gwadar Port managed by Singapore Shipping Company, or to open a new port in neighboring areas and invest and build it by China, and then give Chinese companies more than 50 years of management and use rights.
Although this is not a formal military agreement, nor is it a rental agreement, everyone knows that China will definitely turn this port into a military port, and it is the heaviest China in the Indian Ocean
The military port that is the most important.
Become a logistics support base for Chinese naval teams in the Indian Ocean.
Because China did not formally send troops to North Korea, but only some volunteer troops were stationed, after the agreement was implemented, China is likely to have its first overseas military base in Pakistan.
It is this military agreement that has brought the South Asian issue or the Sino-India conflict to the surface.
At that time, the first thing India did was to move closer to the United States and proposed to deduct the purchase amount of part of the F-22a with the use rights of Port Blair in the Andaman Islands.
At first, the United States was not concerned.
In the Indian Ocean, the United States does not lack naval bases. Singapore is on the east and Djibouti is on the west.
In the middle is Digo Garcia, who belongs to the United Kingdom.
The Gulf region has even more bases. As the South China Sea issue heats up, it is not impossible for the US military to return to the Philippines, and it will be able to block the Chinese Navy's access to the Indian Ocean. There is no need to obtain more military bases in the Indian Ocean and bear unnecessary financial expenses for this.
However, the United States soon changed its mind.
China's rise is unstoppable, and countries like the Philippines that win weakly are simply unreliable. If the Chinese Navy forcibly enters the Indian Ocean in order to protect the maritime strategic lifeline, even Singapore will reserve the issue of providing support to the US military for its own security.
In this way, the US military is in the Indian Ocean, and the closest to the Strait of Malacca is Digo Garcia, thousands of kilometers away.
Strategically, it is very necessary for the United States to obtain a reliable military base near the Strait of Malacca, and preferably used alone.
Obviously, Port Blair is an ideal choice.
But when the United States felt profitable, India stopped doing it.
To be precise, it is not the Indian authorities, but the Indian people quit.
As the initiator of the Non-Aligned Movement in the 1960s, India has never formed an alliance with other countries.
After independence, India never rented military bases to other countries.
Although today is different, and almost all Indians believe that China is India's biggest threat, the opposition Congress does not believe that providing military bases to the United States can bring more security to India.
Instead, it may drag India into the military confrontation between the United States and China, so protests and demonstrations were launched nationwide, forcing the ruling coalition to make concessions.
The result is that India quits.
Of course, this incident did not have much impact on the hot US-India relations.
The United States needs India to restrain China, and India also needs the military, technical and diplomatic support provided by the United States.
In addition to surrounding areas, China's diplomatic losses are also huge in other places.
For example, in Europe, nearly 60% of the people believe that China's dispatch of troops to North Korea is protecting a dictatorial government.
Instead of defending an independent country, this understanding has great prejudice, for example, those who hold this view ignore it. After the war, China did not control North Korea's political situation. Instead, North Korea organized a general election and established a democratic government elected by citizens. However, with more than half of the people being deceived, European countries that claim to be democratic and free will inevitably favor the United States in foreign policy.
Even Russia, which supported China during the war, became cold after the war.
Of course, the reason why Russia is alienated from China is not that China engages in democratic elections in North Korea, but that it does not gain much benefit after the war.
It can be said that after the Second Korean War ended, China was very lonely in the international community.
From Chandler's standpoint, this is the victory that the United States has achieved
If China lost points in diplomacy half a century ago, it would be enough to cause disastrous consequences.
Fortunately, now is not the closed era, dominated by bilateral exchanges, but an era of multilateral internationalization and a relatively civilized era.
China needs the world, and the world also needs China.
As the world's largest industrial producer.
China needs overseas markets to digest severely oversupply domestic productivity and also needs resources from other countries. But similarly, other countries, especially developed countries, also need high-quality and low-priced goods provided by China.
It can be said that at that time, no country could replace China's position in the global production system.
Although theoretically speaking, India has this qualification, because by 2027, India will surpass China.
It has become the most populous country in the world, but India has no capital at all before it solves basic education and allows illiterate people who account for 60% of the country's total population to master knowledge.
You should know that modern large-scale production requires high cultural qualities even for workers on the industrial line.
Looking around the world, no country or even no region can provide up to 800 million qualified industrial workers like China.
This is true. When surrounding China, Western countries also have to trade with China, and the United States is no exception.
However, not all countries are willing to let the past pass and use a new worldview to measure China's position in the international order.
Chapter completed!