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Chapter 133 Civilization should not be a bet

"Lu Lu, I got up and brushed my teeth and had breakfast. I cooked porridge and cut two eggs!"

At eight o'clock the next morning, Lu Yi, who was still sleeping in bed, was pulled up by Professor Lin and urged him to brush his teeth and have breakfast.

"Just sending a message from the laboratory, saying that Wei Hong built the test engine and prepared to conduct the test, and asked when we would go back."

"What engine? Orion's thermal expansion?" Lu Yi walked into the bathroom and squeezed some toothpaste on the toothbrush, and asked vaguely while brushing his teeth.

"I don't know, I just said that the test model has been created, and I will conduct a low-energy test to collect data first."

In December, the weather cooled further today. Professor Lin took out Lu Yi's down jacket in the closet and prepared to go out to wear it later.

"Well, I just read the message and asked us to discuss the issue of thermal pollution and earth's heat dissipation. After the talk, we will go back in the afternoon."

After having the breakfast made by Professor Lin himself, Lu Yi and the others put on thick down and took their laptop out.

“There’s been action.”

Sitting in the car, Lu Yi was not idle. He sent a plan he had roughly conceived last night to the Nuclear Industry Group, and then used professional tools to search the latest global current news.

After sorting out the content of these news titles and the country to which the news belongs, Lu Yi frowned.

"What's wrong?" Professor Lin looked at him worriedly.

"It's okay, I mean because of the heat crisis, we must protect the environment, improve energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions."

Lu Yi closed the notebook, reached out and grabbed Professor Lin's soft little hand and gently squeezed it, but the guess in his heart did not express it.

After just searching the latest global current news, he found a change, that is, the proportion of environmental protection news has increased significantly. This situation will not usually occur except for the approaching National Environmental Protection Day and Elleno Exhaust Period.

If there is any abnormality, there must be strength to intervene. At the same time, judging from the news, Western Europe also realized that their big brother Lao Mi was about to sell them, and it was still a way to mix oil in Mili to cooperate with Lao Mi's public opinion guidance.

After all, he confirmed the data on the hot crisis the afternoon before yesterday, and held a video conference of 3 countries yesterday afternoon. From the beginning to now, the time is very short. There are only a few people who know the situation, so the news is still within the control range.

This is good news.

Lu Yi became more happy when he figured out this.

......

"Professor Lu, several academicians have arrived, but the leader is still resting, so everyone has to wait a moment."

As soon as he arrived at the conference room, Minister Hu, who had been waiting for a long time, walked over and said, seeing Lu Yi and the others.

"Yesterday's video conference lasted until very late?" Lu Yi looked at the time. It was already past nine:30, and something suddenly came to his mind.

"At around 3 o'clock in the morning, the three countries have agreed on the general direction on this matter, and there are still some details left to add to it."

Minister Hu said softly, he knew that Lu Yi was the first to confirm the situation of the thermal crisis and that yesterday's video conference could also enter, and the progress of this matter did not need to be concealed from Lu Yi.

"It's almost three o'clock in the morning..." Lu Yi nodded silently when he remembered the age of the leader.

At 10 o'clock in the morning, people often saw the leader coming to this conference room on the news broadcast with great energy, but you can still see a trace of fatigue in your eyes when you look carefully.

"Everyone sit there."

Lu Yi and his men sat down and said to the leader: "This time I just want to use you experts to determine their views on the thermal pollution and the thermal pollution crisis, and to determine whether there are technical means to solve it."

After the leader finished speaking, the academicians present looked at Lu Yi. In addition to Academician Chen and Academician Chen yesterday, there were two academicians who Lu Yi did not know.

"Then I'll say something."

Lu Yi connected the high-definition projector to his notebook, opened a data and said: "Now Yangcheng nuclear fusion reactor adopts a pressurized water reactor solution, with an energy efficiency of 0.416, which is about the same as the energy efficiency of ordinary thermal power plants.

The next step for nuclear fusion reactors will adopt a power generation scheme dominated by magnetofluids and auxiliary water reactors. The energy efficiency can reach between 0.69 and 0.70. Compared with thermal power plants, controlled nuclear fusion will also reduce environmental problems such as carbon emissions and smoke emissions.

Judging from these data, it is positive that we will eliminate thermal power plants and use controlled nuclear fusion to the environment. If the total energy consumption of human society remains at the current level and does not increase, the heat energy emissions of human activities to the environment will enter a negative growth state, and the environment will only get better and better."

"What if the total energy consumption of human society increases?"

The leader saw the key to the problem at a glance. The controllable nuclear fusion has made a breakthrough. Who would be willing to limit the use and who would not think about exploding its power.

"Depending on how to improve the energy, we used to have only 40 portions of 100 portions of energy that were effective, and the remaining 60 portions could not be used and directly discharged into the environment.

Now the energy efficiency is improved. We can use 70 portions of 100 portions, and only 30 portions are not used to discharge into the environment.

The significance of controlling nuclear fusion is that the total energy consumption of human society increases by 75%, and the total amount of heat we emit into the environment does not change.

Because thermal pollution does not matter whether you use it or not. Energy is released from matter. Unless the energy is returned and stuffed back into matter, the final destination of these energy is the environment.

This is the same as a forest fire. A large amount of energy is released during the burning process of forests. Even if this energy is not used by us, it will all belong to the environment.

If the total energy consumption of society is further increased, exceeding 75%, then the heat we emit into the environment will increase than now, the greenhouse effect will be strengthened, and the thermal pollution will be aggravated."

Lu Yi opened another data and said: "This is the data analyzed by the mathematical model of thermal crisis. The current solar activity remains unchanged, and we can increase the total energy to 7.6 times the current one.

Of course, in order to avoid the influence of the earth's own fluctuations, we need to reduce this multiple to 6.5. Next, we will plant trees and use tree photosynthesis to convert energy into chemical energy and store it, and finally obtain a value of 6.8 times.

This 6.8 times does not mean that the total energy consumption of our human society has increased by 6.8 times, it refers to 6.8 times of energy production.

In fact, due to the energy efficiency, there will always be some energy that cannot be used by us and is discharged into the environment. This 6.8 times the total power means that our actual production energy consumption can only be increased by 4.76 times.

This is still the data obtained by a higher energy efficiency of controllable nuclear fusion. If it is replaced with thermal power, our actual production energy consumption can only increase to 2.72 times."

"Production energy consumption is 4.76 times..."

The leader was silent for a moment and asked: "Is there any way to improve it? During the video conference yesterday, an expert from the United States said that the sun's activity will be further weakened and enter the Little Ice Age. If this news does happen, what impact will it have on our current situation."

“The impact is great.”

Lu Yi was silent and said, "I asked the relevant scientists who studied the sun, and they estimated that the intensity of solar radiation during the Little Ice Age will be reduced by about 7%.

The power of solar radiation to the earth is about 1.73*10^17W, and the total power of human society was 2.253*10^13W (Note 1). The difference between the two sides is 4 orders of magnitude. If the energy efficiency of controlled nuclear fusion is improved, then if the solar radiation has actually decreased by 7% this time, we can increase the total energy consumption of society by about 900 to 1100 times.

I know that now everyone needs to take advantage of the breakthrough of controlled nuclear fusion to develop rapidly, and the demand for energy use is urgent, but I still recommend ignoring the factor that may weaken the solar radiation intensity, and only plan to prevent thermal pollution crisis from the current situation or based on the highest radiation intensity data in the solar history.

We can prevent possible small ice ages, but we cannot rely on this possible small ice age development.”

"Tell me your reasons." The leader tapped his finger on the table and asked.

"Because of the unknown of the sun, the prediction of the sun cannot be accurately determined and the prevention of human nature."

Lu Yi shook his head and said, "20 years ago, Nasa was shouting that it may enter the small ice river in the early 21st century. 10 years ago, Nasa changed its statement and may enter the small ice river in the middle of the 21st century. In the past two years, Nasa announced that due to the weakening of solar activity, the low temperature has been hit recently.

There are many reasons for deciding to change the statement of Nasa many times. The first may be that they want more funds to allow Lao Mi people to support Nasa's space industry, but the main reason is that we do not understand the sun and cannot make accurate predictions.

Our technology is a bit difficult to monotonously, let alone the sun.

Even if we enter the Little Ice Age, we cannot guarantee how long this Little Ice Age will last.

It may last for more than a decade, or decades, but it may also be within a few years, or even one or two years before we officially enter the starry sky, solar activity begins to resume and strengthen, and solar radiation levels begin to rise.

But at that time, we had already used the low temperatures of the Little Ice Age, and construction exploded with energy far beyond the limits of the earth's tolerance during normal times. In this way, when solar activities begin to recover and strengthen and the radiation level rises, we will not be able to stop the car..."

It is easy to go from frugality to extravagance, but it is difficult to go from extravagance to frugality. This is a very simple human nature problem.

You are struggling to get excited with the help of the crazy explosion energy of the Little Ice Age, but you cannot accurately predict solar activity. You cannot guarantee whether the activity will increase rapidly in one or two years.

If such a thing really happens, and you are used to the explosive energy and energy, how should you adapt to the days when you suddenly limit your energy use?

If there is no restriction, a large number of ongoing plans in the country will be interrupted and all people will not be willing. What should I do?

Then you can only fight and suppress all weak countries, and simply kill them back to the Stone Age and hardly use energy... But this may not be enough, because by then, the energy of a big country may exceed the standard. So what can you do? A comprehensive nuclear war is coming.

Don’t say that the top leaders are rational and cannot fight the war, but don’t forget that the people are blind.

When the whole nation is unwilling to limit the reduction of energy, when the whole nation is in a state of excitement and the public is truly victorious, you will fight this war without fighting.

You can't know what the sun's temper is like in the next moment. It's accurate to predict the sun's activity, which is beyond the scope of human technology.

You can only analyze it from the existing data at a high probability, and there is only a 70 to 80% probability that solar activity will continue to weaken, but there are still 20%?

The probability of using the entire civilization to bet on 80% is that it is a gambler and businessman. It should not be the thinking of strategic scientists whose words and actions will affect the direction of civilization, nor should it be the personality that civilized people in power should have.

When it comes to the safety of the entire civilization, as long as the incident is not 100% sure, even if there is only 1% probability of happening, you must prevent this 1% of the 1% of the mind. This is the thinking that a strategic scientist, including a civilized person in power, should have.

Instead of throwing the safety of the entire civilization at a 80% chance for faster development, betting that 20% will not happen.
Chapter completed!
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