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Volume 12 The Iron Curtain of the Cold War Chapter 12 Germany's Weaknesses

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A fatal weakness is that the fruits still need to be carried out with the outside world. The current German economy is divided into two parts: "foreign trade" and "world trade" and strictly distinguished. "Foreign trade" refers to trade between ethnic groups and regions within the scope of the "continental economy". Germany will absorb most of the necessary raw materials from each neighboring states, and Germany will allow neighboring states to have a "reasonable industrialization", but if these countries actually develop their industries in order to participate in the world market, it will be "stubborn".

Production for the world market is the task of German industry - German industry will obtain supply for European countries. The one who determines Europe's "foreign trade" is the "supply needs" and "security needs" of the Great Germany and its vassals; this "foreign trade" will be strictly stipulated by trade agreements and liquidation agreements.

"World trade" refers to trade between continents, or rather to trade between the European economy and the rest of the world. Inevitably, the nature and form of this trade depends not only on what the needs of the Greater Germany, but also on how other countries - the United States, Latin America and the Far East - organize their economic and trade relations. Most German economists acknowledge that world trade will also have to a certain extent adherence to the principles of international division of labor and regional specialization in the future, but they firmly argue that this general principle must have some important limits and conditions.

The old-style liberal principles of international trade were in line with the interests of the British Empire and were not suitable for Germany, because the liberal principles of international trade separated Germany from the source of materials. From the German point of view, the most important thing for the Great German will is the sum of all its relationships with the external world (economic, political, and cultural). The political and cultural relationships of these economies constitute the so-called "external economy". The "world market" is only part of this "external economy" and is not often the most important part of it.

According to the opinions of German economists, for the interests of Germany, a number of items, such as gasoline, rubber, etc., even if the cost of domestic production is greater than that of foreign production, it must be produced domestically. Therefore, Germany must increase the export of "typical commodities" made in Germany, such as machinery and optical instruments, and obtain more profits to subsidize the production costs of those "related to the country's fundamentals".

The purpose of Germany's four-year plan is to create a "suitable" state of self-sufficiency, not to want Germany to withdraw from the world economy. Germany's "external economy" is certainly revised because of the four-year plan several times, but it still exists and will continue in the future. Germany hopes to establish large-scale "barter" agreements with countries that implement government-controlled foreign trade (such as Japan); Germany hopes to enter into liquidation agreements and foreign exchange agreements with Latin American countries; they hope to enter into special agreements with countries whose foreign trade is generally private enterprises (such as the United States), and in these occasions, Germany will try to lure those countries to concentrate their trade with Germany under the large trading companies under the government's supervision.

As a hard currency in international settlement, Germany has no land. Whether gold or silver, Germany lacks it. Germany does not use gold as the basis of Germany's monetary system, and plans to use gold as the basis for the "new European order" in the future. The question is whether their "world trade" in the future can also be used without gold. People usually believe that gold has four functions in the international economy: First of all, gold can ensure the stability of the exchange rate of currency of each country, because the currency of different countries each represents a certain amount of gold and is exchanged for each other according to their respective gold content.

For example, before 1914, 1 US dollar represents pure gold of 23.22 grains (1.5093 grams), and 1 brigade equals pure gold of 113.0016 grains, then the value of 1 brigade is equal to 4.6665 yuan. Secondly, adjust the price and income levels of different countries. This process is generally like this: when prices fall in a certain country, it is cheaper to purchase goods from that country. Employment and wages of workers in various export industries in China will increase, which in turn can stimulate other employment and wages in the country and increase it.

When its export trade volume increases, foreign gold will flow into the country to repay its export commodities. The country's bank reserves will increase, credit will increase, the currency circulating on the market (including deposits) will increase, and industrial activities and profits will also increase. However, this development has its limit. After exceeding a certain point, this increased industrial activity and increased money supply will cause prices to rise. Therefore, purchasing goods from this country will be more expensive, its export trade will decrease, and the imported goods will increase, and the development process will be reversed

As the funds flow abroad, banks' reserves gradually decrease, banks will recover their payments, the currency circulating on the market will decrease, employment will also decrease, and wages and profits will decrease.

However, when this trend develops, the price of exported goods will decrease, so the development process is reversed and repeated. Export prices around the world are kept balanced in this "automatic" way (Note: There is an indispensable condition for the operation of this process, that is, the country's banking and credit system must be based on gold).

Gold has two important functions for international economic relations: all international payment differences are usually settled in gold. If a country's exports exceed imports, the liquidator's way to pay the surplus is to import the gold into the country. If its foreign payment differences are indebted (i.e., trade deficit), the country must send gold to a foreign country to pay off its debts. Another point is that gold can facilitate credit loans and borrowing between countries.

Germany also accepted this view. They believed that adopting multi-faceted liquidation agreements in Europe does not necessarily mean that all countries will abandon the gold standard. Among all parts of the world, liquidation agreements and gold standard are likely to be used at the same time. Under the new system of trade controls and currency controls, the movement of commodity credit and gold between Europe and the rest of the world can continue. For example, suppose Norway held several German mark deposits after the war and wanted to use it to buy gold in the United States.

So, as long as Germany is allowed to export goods to the United States, it will not be difficult for Norway to deposit its mark into US dollars. However, the United States must be willing to import sufficient quantities of German goods, and then the transaction party is possible. Germany stated: Their attitude towards gold will mainly depend on the actions of the United States, the owner of the world gold.

A German expert wrote: "If the only retainer country that has become almost the world's gold today (referring to the United States) provides gold for Europe for use", then Germany will "without hesitation". Gold, it will agree to use gold in a more free manner. If Germany can conquer and control several major gold-producing countries in the world (such as South Africa and the Soviet Union), it will undoubtedly advocate more free use of gold and resolve the international payment gap, thereby expanding Germany's share in world trade.

According to Germany's view, the post-war world economy will also be like the "New European Order", and must be based on the principle of "leader". According to Germany's assumption, if several regional groups in the "world order" can accept the leadership of the largest and most efficient groups in the future, their use will be more successful. As for who is the largest of the economic groups in various continents in the future, Germany will naturally "take charge" and be confident: all countries must accept Germany's hegemony in national economic relations, which is part of the fate of the post-war world. Regarding the method of establishing German economic hegemony, Germany only has empty hints, but no specific expressions. However, if Germany wins, the method they will adopt is not unpredictable, because they only need to implement the methods that have been applied to Europe on world relations. German-type world trade will

It represents a new exclusive "collective negotiation" system. The main opponents of such negotiation are governments. Under this system, the price and trade terms of commodities will be roughly determined by the negotiation forces of the relevant countries and the pressures they can use (fair or unfair). Under the assumption of German victory, Germany will surely hold a great negotiation force in the future. Germany will concentrate the export and import trade of the "European region" under its domination, and thus dominate the world market of many commodities. Germany will be able to command Latin America at will and manipulate other regions. When European industry gradually expands under the command of Germany, when the European market's position in the world economy becomes more and more important, if other groups are unwilling to reduce their foreign trade and their living standards, they will only accept Germany's methods and conditions.

Judging from past experience and from their own statements, it can be said that Germany will definitely use its superior economic power mercilessly according to its needs. In Germany, trade is just a weapon to invade other countries and control its political and cultural life. Germany's economic structure seems to be enough to achieve its purpose of conquering world trade. That is, before 1919, the various trade groups and cartels of the German industrial and commercial regions had repeatedly entered into agreements with foreign employer groups and merchant groups, so it has a lot of experience. Since May 1921, several trade groups have repeatedly annexed steel, textiles and other industries in the occupied areas on behalf of the German government. As long as the time comes, these trade groups seem to be able to expand their business in the world.
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