Volume 9 Prosperity Volume Chapter 59 Economic Crisis 4
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In short, in the view of the Silver Group, silver is everything, and everything else is secondary. From the perspective of the entire national interests of the United States, curbing China's expansion in Asia is also the most important interest of the United States. Silver tycoons intentionally or unintentionally ignored this important issue and tried their best to say that they were just a businessman. As for silver that dragged down China's economy, this is just a business issue.
So when Professor Rogers made some strong remarks after visiting China in person, he believed that the US silver policy was a policy that "no international responsibility" and believed that "the silver group will soon be considered the most vivid clown in American history." However, this expert intentionally or unintentionally separated the two, resulting in the innocent hypothesis of the US government.
In fact, it is unfair to say that Senator Bidmen has no idea about the United States' policy toward China. In early 1912, he delivered a speech in the Senate that fiercely criticized China's aggression against the United States, seriously endangering the interests of the United States in the West. The intensity of its intensity even made Secretary of State Hull privately declare that Bidmen's fierce criticism of China had nothing to do with the government.
Is it really okay? It's like a neighbor's dog. When the dog is released and yells loudly, can it be said that the neighbor is innocent? Even though the neighbor didn't bark. It is precisely because he did not fulfill his duties that others heard the dog barking!
So, Senator Bidmen did not realize it, and of course no one told him that it was his beloved silver policy that angered the Chinese and ultimately threatened American interests.
The second thing that caught our attention is that the silver issue is an economic issue in the United States, but its international impact is a political issue. Due to the increase in silver prices, many countries mobilized to revolve around China. At that time, it was almost the only major country in the world that used silver as a lending currency. These actions were directly related to the US policy toward China.
Most surprisingly, the US authorities adopted such a cold attitude and impermanent policy on the seriousness of the relationship between silver and international politics. On November 51, 1910, when silver prices soared, State Department economist Herbert Feyn, believed that Roosevelt was "obviously indifferent to the impact his own actions had on other countries." Erister, a writer who specialized in Roosevelt's New Deal and Silver Policy, believed that "the president himself probably has not figured out the significance of raising silver prices to China. It is completely different from raising gold prices to the United States, and the two are completely opposite."
Judging from the later developments, Roosevelt's ambiguous attitude, undecisive policies and natural practices on the issue of the impact of Asian international relations in the United States, proved that Herbert Fey's comments were not unfounded. This could not fail to have a profound impact on the current situation in Asia at that time.
With this delicate indulgence and bold adventure, a great loot began. What China suffered in the 1910s was an unprecedented loot. For the same reason, China could not expect other forces to help. In fact, if these forces did not come and rob China together, then thank God.
As the US government acquires a large amount of silver at home and abroad, the world's silver price has risen sharply. Since September 1910, the US government has acquired an average of 24 million ounces per month | until January 30, 294 million ounces were acquired throughout the fiscal year.
In addition, it also acquired 3,100 ounces mined from the US silver mine and 11,200 ounces nationalized under the silver state order. At this time, speculators and the US government competed with each other to raise the silver price. The world silver price rose steadily from the US to implement the silver state's sometimes 50 cents per ounce, reaching a maximum of 81 cents on 1911427 (the London market reached 36 and a quarter of a penny). Although it fell slightly since then, it has been hovering around.
The rise in world silver prices had a significant impact on China. China was one of the few countries in the world that implemented the silver standard at that time. It was also the largest silver country in the world. From 1909 to 1909, it was 45% of the total shipment from Canada, the United States, and Mexico.
At the end of 1909, the inventory of silver in Shanghai was 439.34 million ounces, accounting for 2.69 times the annual output). Silver is the basis of China's currency, and the bargaining chips in circulation. The rise in the world's silver price naturally prompted the rise of China's silver prices and exchange rates.
However, due to the continuous acquisitions of the United States and the activities of speculators in the international financial market, the world's silver price rose far exceeds that of China. Therefore, the gap between Chinese and foreign bank prices became increasingly wide. By October 1910... :S), the silver price contained in it was more than a quarter higher than that in China. Chinese silver began to flow out in large quantities.
In this case, the Ministry of Finance immediately began to take action, and the Chinese government imposed silver export tax in 19101015
10%) and balanced tax (float, the lowest is 1/5 of the difference, and the highest is, but this kind of preventive measure is just a passive preventive measure and will never prevent the rise of silver prices.
By the spring of 1911, the foreign bank price exceeded domestic silver. In 1911, the Bank of Communications, which had strong investment in 1911, pointed out in the circulars of each branch that silver exports could make a profit of 300 to 400 yuan per thousand yuan. The profit was difficult to save, and the largest climax of silver outflow in history appeared in China. The silver outflow at that time was closely related to the complex international politics.
First, in order to stop the outflow of silver, although the Chinese government repeatedly stopped it, banks enjoy financial financing rights and are particularly sensitive to huge profits in silver exports, so they constitute the main channel for the outflow of silver. At the end of 1909, the silver inventories of Shanghai Bank were RMB 275.7 million, accounting for 70 of the total silver inventories in Shanghai at that time.
As the world's silver prices soared, banks' silver inventories fell sharply, and by September 1911, the phenomenon of only 12.+ of Shanghai's total silver inventories was: the price of government bonds was stable (the main object of Huashang Bank's investment), while the real estate prices fell sharply (the main object of bank investment), and the bank's wealth was transformed into silver and flowed overseas as much as possible.
Second, in 1910, Chinese silver appeared first: the 7 seas spread out to Hong Kong. Although the direction of the movement was opposite, the purpose was only one, which was to openly or smuggle silver exports. This was also the result of using financial financing rights. From January to August, a large amount of silver in mainland China concentrated in Shanghai (total of 29.69 million yuan), and then flowed overseas to chase high prices;
But after September, the flow of silver suddenly changed. From September to 12, Hong Kong reached 88.97 million yuan, which was more than the total annual total (81.89 million yuan) flowing to Shanghai in 1909. This is mainly because the Chinese government imposed silver export tax in October, and silver began to flow to Hong Kong. Although Hong Kong returned to China at this time, Zhao Gang once guaranteed that the form of Hong Kong's regime remained unchanged for a hundred years. Now, this gap has led to the collapse of the entire financial system!
Although the Chinese government believes that this rampant silver smuggling situation is "shocking and helpless, because from the current situation, the Chinese government cannot do anything to him; even he is confused about who to deal with and who to rely on.
52, 1911.v|50, although the people and wealth were handed over to the local customs, after the people at that time claimed that they were carrying silver dollars for shopping and presented relevant evidence, the customs had to release the person in embarrassment, and were later sued to court and sentenced that "this kind of thing must not happen again."
At that time, Minister of Railways Gu Mengyu complained to the Executive Yuan that when encountering such incidents, "repaying silver will violate the ministry's order, and deduction may cause disputes." It was a dilemma, and only the large amount of silver was seen outflowing. This situation reflected the extreme lack of legislation in China's financial law at that time.
While China's silver exports were smuggled in large quantities, the silver exports to London and New York increased violently. Based on the net exports of China's silver in 1909 (7,7557,468), the net exports of silver in 1911 increased by 29 times (225,334,664). During the same period, the net exports of silver to the UK in the total amount increased by 29 times, and the exports to the United States increased by 71 times.
This momentum lasted until 1912. In 1909, only 8037,277, and after 1910, the net export volume of silver increased by dozens of times. This is an unusual phenomenon. The US Treasury Secretary Morgan Consortium wrote in its diary on November 8, 1911:
"In the past three or four years, China's annual silver exports were only between six million and nine million ounces. However, in the first nine months of 1911, they exported 60 million ounces. The silver could only be smuggled by China." He believes that the Chinese are speculating between 40 cents per ounce of the Bank of China and 65 cents of the World Bank.
The Morgan Consortium's comments were only half correct. The surge in China's silver exports (1910-) must have been the result of large-scale organized smuggling in China, which is correct. But it would not be complete if the Chinese bank was thinking that this was done solely for speculation and profit.
Obviously, the action of Bank of China has received support from the Americans and is part of the complex international political struggle. Because when smuggling was once strictly investigated, the amount of silver exported by China was still huge. If we only talk about it from an economic perspective, the silver exported by normal is unprofitable at this time, but even so, Bank of China still exports a large amount of silver, which aroused the interest of the Independent Commission Against Corruption.
Chapter completed!