At 10 a.m., Wang Guanxi received a call from Feng Shaokun.

On the phone, Feng Shaokun congratulated: "Guanxi, Lehman Brothers' company went bankrupt this time, you made a lot of money again."

Previously, Blackshirt Investment Bank asked him to borrow HK$1.5 billion and then short Lehman Brothers. Then today I saw the news of Lehman Brothers going bankrupt.

This is simply amazing.

While Lehman Brothers was negotiating with the buyer, Wang Guanxi boldly bet that Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. Unexpectedly, Lehman Brothers was really bankrupt, which made him admire him very much.

Wang Guanxi smiled faintly and said, "I'm so lucky, haha, Brother Feng, are you all right now?"

Feng Shaokun said, "It's okay, I don't care about American stocks and bonds at all, but my family's bank has suffered a lot of losses."

Wang Guanxi said: "This small loss is nothing. Hurry up and tighten the loans. This time the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers may lead to the outbreak of the financial crisis."

Feng Shaokun nodded: "The financial crisis broke out? This is terrifying. To be honest, I also think that a financial crisis may break out. Fortunately, our family has a sense of crisis and made some preparations. We have tightened our loans a long time ago to deal with the possible financial crisis."

"I'd like to have dinner together at noon, I want to ask you some questions"

"good"

So, at noon, the two of them came to a Western restaurant called Chidishi in Mong Kok.

The main food here is French. Decades have passed. Although competition among restaurants is becoming increasingly fierce, Jidizi is still regarded as a food landmark and its style remains the same as that of that time.

The restaurant has a nightly accompaniment of the resident band, where you can listen to the old-fashioned music played by the band, enjoy authentic French food or dance with light singing. Jidiz is one of the few restaurants that can truly make people feel like they are in the past.

Wang Guanxi smiled and said, "This place is suitable for lunch, it is quite romantic."

Feng Shaokun smiled and said, "I used to be one of the owners of this restaurant."

Wang Guanxi asked curiously: "Why isn't it now?"

Feng Shaokun said with some remembrance: "I used to date a French girl. This restaurant was bought for her. After she left, I sold the restaurant's shares."

"Then you still have a story," Wang Guanxi smiled and said, "Tell me, look."

"I won't say it anymore. People are all moms, so why are they here?" Feng Shaokun smiled.

Then the two ordered pan-fried foie gras with apples, light lobster curry, golden apples, white truffle pasta, beef and oyster tartare.

Feng Shaokun suddenly stopped eating the white truffle pasta and asked, "Guan Xi, do you have a girlfriend now?"

Wang Guanxi was stunned and said, "I haven't officially confirmed my girlfriend yet."

Feng Shaokun thought about it and said solemnly: "If you meet someone you like, remember to let her have a baby with you, otherwise she will give birth to someone else's baby."

Wang Guanxi: "·····"

Then the two started talking about the financial trend.

Feng Shaokun said: "This time Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac will have a debt of 200 billion yuan due at the end of the month. I think the repayment problem will stump the US government."

"Yes, the $200 billion debt will expire, but it will have to be paid back," Wang Guanxi said with a smile.

In September, the US subprime mortgage crisis drama has been staged for more than a year.

On September 7, US Treasury Secretary Paulson announced that the administration would take over the two largest mortgage lenders in the United States - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae.

At this point, the fate of the two heavyweight actors, "Two Beauties" in the subprime mortgage crisis drama, seems to be basically clear.

Common and special stocks of the two major mortgage institutions fell sharply, while bonds showed their biggest single-day gains in history.

Some investors breathed a sigh of relief, some were stunned by resentment, and some even made a lot of money and smiled...

At this point, people can't help but ask, what role did the two US play in the subprime mortgage crisis? Why did the US government rescue two private institutions?

In this game, who won? Who lost?

Let’s review the United States’ mortgage loan!

It can be said that it is from a savior in the property market to a time bomb!

At the beginning of this year, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae were also saviors of the property market in the eyes of the US government. The government had hoped that the two mortgage giants would buy more mortgages to withstand further recession in the housing market.

So what kind of institution is the "two beauties"?

Why does the US government give such high expectations and requirements to the "two Americans"?

In the 1930s, the United States faced a more severe economic depression than today, with the unemployment rate reaching 25%.

In order to stimulate domestic demand, the US government established the federal National Mortgage Association fanniemae (Fanli Mae).

Out of the US government's admiration for private enterprises, Fannie Mae became a private joint-stock company in 1968. In order to break the monopoly, the US Congress established the federal housing loan mortgage company freddiemac in 1970.

The "two Americans" work in the US mortgage market is similar to "debtors".

The government requires that for mortgage loans that meet certain conditions, the "Two Americans" have an obligation to buy them from banks, thereby providing liquidity to banks to issue more mortgage loans.

The "Two Mei" then packaged the purchased mortgage loans in batches to generate housing mortgage bonds (mbs) and sold them at a higher price.

In the 1980s, the share of the "Two Americans" in the mortgage financing market expanded rapidly and successfully listed.

In 2006, any mortgage loan of less than US$370,000 must be purchased as long as a very low condition is met.

The crisis that originated from subprime mortgages last year spread rapidly. Without Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae's promise to buy a mortgage loan, banks would not lend money even when facing high-quality customers.

As a result, the market position of the two companies became increasingly important. With the high expectations of the government, in January this year alone, the two companies purchased 80% of the mortgage loans of the month.

The job of "defeater" is not a one-time job, and any investment always has risks.

When the borrower corresponding to a certain mbs cannot repay the loan in time, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae must repurchase these debts, which will directly lead to the asset reduction of the two companies.

Since the subprime mortgage crisis began, the default rate of housing mortgage loans in the United States has risen sharply.

US Treasury Secretary Paulson said helplessly at the mortgage forum on July 9: In 2007, there were 1.5 million cases of losing the right to houses, and some forecasts believe that it will increase to 2.5 million this year.

The Canadian Treasury Secretary also said: The two US-US companies can maintain lower capital reserves than ordinary financial institutions, and it is difficult to raise capital turnover in today's financial tightening environment.

The huge debt that needs to be paid for has formed a gap between the company's own funds, so people are increasingly worried about the safety of the "two beauties".

If the two U.S. funds fail to settle their debts, all banks that issue U.S. housing mortgage loans will be in danger.

By then, the only option for these banks is to raise tens of billions of dollars.

At the same time, this will stimulate further declines in housing prices and further sell-offs, which will exacerbate the decline in housing sales and the rise in default rates.

The issues between Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae are related to whether thousands of Americans can continue to own their homes.

It is not only the American people who are paying attention to the crisis of the "Two U.S.", but also foreign investors who purchase "Two U.S. bonds.

Concerns about the bankruptcy of the "two US" have caused the interest rate spreads of "two US" bonds and loan-backed bonds that meet the "two US" standards to rise rapidly.

As of last Friday, foreign central banks have reduced their holdings of institutional bonds under the Federal Reserve for seven consecutive weeks.

The takeover plan announced by US Treasury Secretary Paulson on September 7 includes: the US Treasury Department will purchase preferred shares with a cap of US$100 billion to ensure the net asset value of the two companies is positive.

In addition, the Ministry of Finance will provide short-term financing for the two mortgage institutions and 12 other banks. At the same time, the Federal Housing and Finance Bureau (FHFA), a regulator of the "two Americans", will take over the management of the two companies.

After the "two US" are taken over by the government, its shares will continue to trade, but will suspend dividends to shareholders.

As soon as the news came out, the market value of the "Two Americans" almost completely evaporated on Monday, with Fannie Mae's stock price falling 90% to close at 73 cents, the lowest since 1982. Freddie Mae also fell 83% to 88 cents.

The interest rate spread between the "two US" bonds and US Treasury bonds showed the largest decline in history. The relevant interest bodies were winning or losing.

Gross, the owner of Pacific Investment Management, once urged the Treasury Department to take action as soon as possible on TV.

He bet that the federal government would take the rescue of US bonds, and his investment in them once accounted for 61% of the total fund investment. After the news was announced, Gross's single-day income reached $1.7 billion.

At the same time, central banks and institutional investors from various countries who are under pressure from domestic public opinion are also breathing a sigh of relief.

According to public market information, the total amount of U.S. housing mortgages held and secured by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae are around $5.2 trillion, accounting for more than half of the total U.S. housing mortgage loans.

Of the various mortgage bonds issued by the two companies, about 3 trillion are in the hands of US financial institutions, and the rest are scattered among overseas investment institutions.

According to data released by the U.S. Treasury Department on June 30 this year, the top five foreign creditors in the two U.S. bonds are Huaxia, Niben, Cayman Islands, Luxembourg and Belgium.

The stock price of "Two Americans" plummeted, and many hedge funds that have been shorting their stocks enjoyed their profits.

The shareholders of the "Two Americans" were undoubtedly the biggest losses. Not only did they suspend dividends, but the shareholders' previous holdings of the "Two Americans" were diluted after the Ministry of Finance purchased preferred shares.

The stock price was more than 70 yuan last year, but now it is 1 yuan.

Like Morgan Bank Group, which bought $30 billion in preferred stock, basically lost all its losses!

$30 billion, it's gone!

Speaking of this, Wang Guanxi couldn't help but sigh: "This Morgan Bank Group's $30 billion was wasted. Lehman Brothers had acquired Morgan Bank before, which was simply impossible."

Feng Shaokun also said: "This time I thought Bank of America or Barec Bank of England acquired Lehman Brothers, but I didn't expect the talks to break down, hehe."

Wang Guanxi smiled and said: "The crisis is still over now. Lehman Brothers has gone bankrupt, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mae are still in the future!"

The US Treasury Department has chosen to go with the two US parties, but the other side of this rescue operation is still far away.

Then Wang Guanxi said: "Based on the rental-to-sale ratio, the housing prices in the United States will have to drop by about 15% before they can fall to a reasonable price. After the rescue, it will help that housing prices will not be oversold."

"Although the two Americans were taken over and temporarily injected some confidence into the market, I think the financial risks are far from being eliminated.

Subprime mortgage interest rate reset will reach a peak in the first quarter of next year, and mortgage defaults are still continuing. Whether it will affect credit card loan defaults will be wait and see."

"And as of August this year, both US and US can repay debts normally, but what is more concerned is whether the US government will repay the debt for the "Two US" bonds on the bonds that are about to mature this quarter, and this determines the future fate of the "Two US" bond holders." Feng Shaokun sighed: "Yes, by the end of September, the amount of Fannie Mae's upcoming bonds will be about US$120 billion, while the amount of Freddie Mae's upcoming bonds is US$103 billion!"

Wang Guanxi smiled and said: "This debt of more than $200 billion will expire, and it will be another bomb!"
To be continued...