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Chapter 3 Keeping a low profile(1/2)

No one died indecipherable.

An Wujiu's purpose at this moment is like everyone present, becoming a survivor in the game. In this warm-up match, he needs to do two things.

1. Can't win.

2. Confidently prompted Yang Ming to win.

Losing is actually very simple. If you choose 1 or 100, you will definitely lose, but it is too eye-catching. It is obvious that you give up. What is difficult about this game is that you lose clearly. You have to let Yang Ming and others believe that you are not as strong as the legendary one. In this way, the fear and defense of others towards him can be alleviated.

Thin rainfall fell on the round table, wrapped in the smell of chemical raw materials and soil, which was terrible.

There is not much time left.

The original purpose of playing this game with a positive thinking is to predict the results of others through analysis and prediction, so that the number you choose is closer to the mean of the number you choose.

What about the other way around?

If he wants Yang Ming to be the closest to 1/2 of the average, he needs to predict the numbers of other people and the numbers that Yang Ming may choose, and ultimately decide which number he wants to write.

To achieve the desired result, An Wujiu needs to guess the range of numbers for each candidate as much as possible.

The option is between 1 and 100. Assuming that there are enough rational contestants in this game that can ignore personal orientation, the guessed number will be evenly distributed between 1 and 100, and the average value is around 50. After taking 1/2, the number you can choose will be further reduced, from [1,100] to [1,50], and choosing one above 50 cannot become half of the mean. According to the probability or median, the number that everyone generally guesses is half of the mean value 50, that is, 25.

Select a number above 25 and the chance of winning will be greatly reduced.

Choosing a number that is too large will cause psychological burden and you will be afraid of becoming an average person. In this mentality, choosing a smaller number is the safe card.

But this is just the first layer of logic.

If everyone realizes this and follows this layer of logic, the selected numbers will generally fall below 25. In this way, 1/2 of the final mean will shift downward and become about 12.5. And so on, the next layer will be 6.25...

Players on the first level will guess the average value in their minds is 1/2.

Players on the second level will guess that they think the average value in others' minds is 1/2.

Even what they think is that others think the mean is 1/2 in the minds of others...

As the player's logic level deepens, the number you guessed will eventually become smaller and smaller, until the number is 1, because no player will think that others will choose a number smaller than themselves. This equilibrium state is Nash equilibrium.

So the most difficult thing in this game is not to guess the average, but to guess which level the thinking mode of the eight contestants on the field is currently on.

Therefore, after learning the rules of the game, An Wujiu spent all his energy on observation, which was the only way he could obtain information from strangers in a short period of time. A person's thinking pattern is largely formed by acquired knowledge, depending on his life experience, education, and thinking pattern will in turn affect his dress and behavior.

Liu Chengwei has never been to school and has not received basic education, so he is likely not to know game theory.

An Wujiu glanced at Liu Chengwei and found that he did not write the answer decisively, but scratched his ears and foreheads and thought hard for a while.

But when you get this kind of question, you can always think of choosing a number close to the middle. Liu Chengwei's level, and the probability of choosing the mean is 50 is the greatest.

When looking at others, An Wujiu suddenly realized that when he woke up, the fifth level was displayed on the panel. I don’t know if other players were the same, but at least one thing is OK - no one is a novice. Because no one was too panicked and unfamiliar with the rules, no one collapsed when he saw the foul being shot.

These survivors have experienced the previous rounds and survived, and this round is not a novice match. According to the difficulty of this warm-up game, there may have been similar events before.

Survivors who have lived to this day are not fools.

Wu You, the youngest in the grade... An Wujiu felt very strange. Such a young child could enter this kind of life-and-death game. He looked at it only and did not seem to be someone who could afford the cost of education. But when talking about the patterns on An Wujiu's neck, Wu You immediately mentioned the types of flowers, which at least showed that his family was not ordinary.

The average is 25, and he will definitely be able to imagine it. If he really chooses 25, he may also worry that someone will choose a smaller number and lower the average.

His answer is probably closer to the 12.5 tier.

Ueno and Lao Yu seem to belong to the same type of people, be cautious, afraid of fouls, and think too much. Ueno is wearing glasses and has a thin cocoon left after using the keyboard on his fingertips. It is probably the traces of long-term use of the keyboard, so he should have been educated or even higher education. They should stand at a higher level of logic than Liu Chengwei and Wu You, so it is about 6.25, and you can only choose natural numbers, that is, 6.

An Wujiu fell into deep thought. It is not easy to think about 6 or so, and there will be risks when continuing to move downwards, because everyone's thinking depth is different. Even if you can think of deeper logic, you will be worried that others will not think of it, so you give up choosing a smaller number.

What about Zhong Yirou?

She is very smart. This is An Wujiu's impression of her, she is easy to understand interpersonal relationships and good at observing it. Before others understood the key points of this game, she had already guessed Yang Ming's profession. This kind of intelligence collection ability is definitely not an ordinary person.

In addition, the distribution of her finger calluses was not like the one left by using a computer, and the tiny scars were more like using fine knives.

An Wujiu looked at the tool kit on her body again, the artificial leather on her calf and the modified palms.

It should be related to prosthetic transformation or precision machinery.

But it is precisely because she is smart enough that her analysis of the previous people should be the same as that of her. For her, Yang Ming and herself need to be wary of it.

According to the information about An Wujiu given by Yang Ming, the useful information is nothing more than scheming, insidious and cunning. Such an image will lead Zhong Yirou to believe that An Wujiu will make very unexpected choices, such as very low numbers.]

For her, the final result might be around 6. Once someone chooses a very small number and balances it with Liu Chengwei and others before, they may end up being her position.

Everyone's ideas can only be speculated at the moment. An Wujiu is very clear. He is just guessing that the final result may not be a hit.

But despite this, it is easy to guess and difficult to guess. The most difficult thing for him is to be careful.

This person is the only person on the field who has no flaws at the moment.

He wore a mask on his face, he couldn't see his appearance, and he had no unique features in his clothes. He had not even made a comment so far. While thinking, An Wujiu couldn't help but raise his head and look in the direction opposite him. However, he found that the other party was actually looking at him.

The two of them looked at each other again, and An Wujiu narrowed his eyes.

The other party was observing him.

For everyone on the field, An Wujiu, who was described as a madman, was undoubtedly a dangerous time bomb. Chen Ti was also very curious.

In the eyes of two people, each other is the biggest uncertainty factor and the other's fault tolerance point. It's just that one person has no flaws, and one person is completely exposed.

No. An Wujiu looked down at the paper.

No flaw is the biggest flaw.

Chen Ti's choice is not exposed at all, which shows that he understands the fundamentals of this game. Then the choices of those people before can be predicted for him. At least two people will choose numbers higher than 6. Therefore, Chen Ti would not choose numbers that are too low if he wants to win.

But An Wujiu can only bet on which number is between 6 and 12.5.

Currently, there is a number that may appear near 25, a number that may appear near 12.5, and three numbers that may appear near 6. Not to mention the fact that Yang Ming and himself, the average number is about 11, so 1/2 of the average number will appear on 5 or 6.

Logically speaking, if the remaining three people are good at deep thinking, the number they will choose should be low, or even reach the third level. But because of this, they understand the rules of the operation of this game and will really do not guess deeper, but get closer to other people's answers.

An Wujiu felt something with his full armed arms, and his intuition made him believe that the other party would choose a lower number.

Since he could feel it, Yang Ming would definitely be able to do it too.

The final number will not be higher than 6.

What would Yang Ming choose?

No, how would Yang Ming guess himself?

An Wujiu looked at Yang Ming, and the other party stared at the display screen without looking up, frowned, as if he was in the middle of thinking.

"The calculation time has come. Now announce the results of the first round of the game "The Doctrine of the Mean"."

The handwriting screen in front of each of them projected new projections in sequence in the air.

“Wu You: 13, Yu Guang: 6, Zhong Yirou: 6, Ueno Dacheng: 7, Liu Chengwei: 25.

Yang Ming: 5, Chen Ti: 6, An Wujiu: 8."

"The final average is 1/2 of 4.75, and the closest thing to it is Yang Ming's result. Yang Ming won."

Seeing the expected pride and rare relaxation on Yang Ming's face, An Wujiu's heart calmed down.

His predictions were not wrong.

Yang Ming's level is the same as he imagined, and he can estimate the range of averages on the field, but for him, estimation is useless because there is a person he is afraid of.

After the previous conversation, An Wujiu already knew how dangerous he was in Yang Ming's heart. He was very scheming and good at disguising. He did not play according to common sense and looked down on anyone else.

Therefore, steady action is not in line with his expectations.

The character of Bai Qihei was given to him by Yang Ming'an, so An Wujiu had to use it.

He calculated Yang Ming's calculation of him, and finally wrote a result on paper that should meet the other party's expectations.8, and one was obviously underestimating the level of other people.

Although this cannot be regarded as an open and upright plan, An Wujiu had no other way, he just wanted to protect himself.

The final result was quite similar as expected, but he was surprised that Chen Tizhengzheng had chosen a 6 well, so he would not guess that the result could not be evenly distributed.

Like intentional.

"It's really worthy of being Brother Yang." Zhong Yirou changed her mouth, plucked her hair hanging from her shoulders, and smiled sweetly, "It's so amazing."

"Luck, luck." Yang Ming's smile on his face could not be hidden. It was often so easy to build up self-confidence. He only needed a powerful opponent who had avoided him and lost to him in full view of everyone.

"I thought some people were so powerful," Liu Chengwei sneered, "It's no different from people like us. In the end, I lost even the warm-up game."

This was An Wujiu's expectation. When Liu Chengwei said it, he even felt a little relieved to achieve his goal.

What is dramatic is that the person who speaks for An Wujiu is Yang Ming, who regards him as a thorn in his eyes.

"It's just an occasional stutter." He raised his eyebrows, "After all, I haven't done it for so many years."

An Wujiu sat quietly, staring at his fingers that were still shaking slightly.

Due to the victory, a gift box popped up in front of Yang Ming and landed on his hands with blue light.

"Congratulations. Before announcing the advantages you have gained in this round, we will first initialize the game."

As soon as the words were finished, everyone on the round table floated up, dizzy as if the illusion arises after taking in excess hallucinogen. The world surrounded by light pollution and air dust began to rotate and collapse, and eventually turned into a small dot, a white particle.

Then, the particles exploded and expanded into a completely new world at an uncapturable speed.

Shengyin began to introduce the world view of the new round of games: "This round of games is called the Killing of Red and Black. Terrorists attacked Miami with poison gas. The density of this poison gas is lower than that of the air, and there are heavy casualties and injuries above the surface. At the moment of life and death, you eight of you came to the safety bunker under the office building by accident through the civil defense passage."
To be continued...
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