Chapter two hundred and twenty second enumeration method
Regarding Montero's question, Yu Ming replied: "Chairman Meng, I am a humanist, I think there must be problems with things that are illogical." Yu Ming is not interested in physical evidence and so on.
"Actually, Vice Chairman John's case has always been a stain on our investigative people." Montero ignored Chairman Meng's word and said: "After I became an investigative person, I had read the relevant information very seriously, but I didn't find that it was wrong. These are information." Montero turned the computer to Yu Ming.
Yu Ming looked at the information and John was very capable. He immediately determined that the oil paintings were flowing to Germany and contacted the German investigator. The oil paintings were courier to the door of a room in the countryside. The two took turns to monitor for three days, but no one was found to pick up the paintings, so they had to give up investigating the person behind the scenes and get the oil paintings back.
Yu Ming said: "This is illogical."
"how?"
"Since the express delivery arrived, of course, the oil painting was collected as soon as possible. Why didn't there be any movement in three days? I think the only reason was that the person who took the painting found that John and the German investigator were surveillance. Of course, it is also possible that the person who took the painting died in a car accident. The person who sent the painting did not receive the information of the accomplice, wouldn't he come to check it in person? The case was divided into two cases, the first was theft, and then the air transport. The second was the collection of paintings.
John was very capable and used a receipt left by the thief to track down the thief's hotel and found clues from the thief's room. It only took twelve hours from theft to the locking address. Wait... Did the owner call the police?"
"…···" Montero thought for a while and replied: "The owner called the police. John intervened in the investigation one hour after theft. This may have been beyond the owner's expectations... However, if this is a insurance fraud case that hired theft, the oil painting was retrieved, and the owner should take it back."
Yu Ming nodded, Montero and he thought of going together. If John was wronged, the owner was the most likely bad guy. John would not be wary of the owner. After all, he helped the owner find the oil painting. He called to ask if the oil painting was damaged, or brought an expert to identify the oil painting and other excuses. But at that time there was a German investigator in the room. Sleeping pills were detected on the wine glass. Who gave this sleeping pills? The second question was that the owner took the oil painting back and carried out another theft to cheat insurance. Why were he eager to get the oil painting back?
Yu Ming asked: "Nancy, was your mother there that day?"
"She works night shift, she is a doctor." Nancy replied.
Yu Ming said: "I don't understand the evidence. If John is a good person, I can barely reason about the incident."
Bella said, "Is it so funny? You don't know about this case."
"No, I just use the only possibility to coherent the entire case. For example, why did John, who was a special forces soldier, not resist? Why didn't the cup have sleeping pills? Why was the owner anxious? Why......... All whys can be obtained a far-fetched explanation."
This is a commonly used enumeration method for cheating. For example, why does a man who is not good at female sex give a sum of money to a senior prostitute? After listing all the possibilities, the causal relationship before and after contacting, there is one possibility left. This may be far-fetched, but it can explain why. If a cheater wants to attack the goal, he must understand every detail of the target's life. The enumeration method is often used. This example of giving money was once a target when Yan San was young. Yan San was very puzzled at the time, but later he knew that the target had obtained a certain project, so he contacted it. The man gave money to the senior prostitute in order to let the senior prostitute give the money to the project manager. Such a small braid was pulled in his hand. The information was basically complete, and then there was a purposeful blackmail. Yan San could call anonymously: Do you think I don't know if you gave money through dissipation?
The enumeration method is different from the exclusion method. The exclusion method is to list a lot of possibilities and then eliminate the possibility of low probability. The enumeration method is deduction, which is to draw the only conclusion through inconspicuous things and objects. However, the enumeration method has a serious flaw, that is, deduction under the situation of information asymmetry and imperfection.
Montero nodded: "Please say it."
"The statement is based on the insurance fraud of the owner. A thief entered the owner's house and stole the oil painting. The thief mailed the oil painting to his German accomplice. The address was chosen in a house where no one lives in Germany. This was perfect, but John was too fast. At the same time as the express delivery arrived, the first question came out, why was the owner in a hurry to get the painting back? The answer to this question is that the owner was not in a hurry to get the painting back, but wanted to know what John knew. The only possibility was that the accomplice encountered an accident and could not contact the thief. The owner and the thief did not know what happened in Germany. When he heard that the investigator had taken the oil painting back, the owner inquired about the news from John."
It's very far-fetched, but the enumeration method is so far-fetched, because the enumeration method is limited to intelligence resources.
Yu Ming said again: "There is no sleeping pill for a wine glass, and there is one wine glass. John is a good person. There is only one possibility. There is sleeping pill in the wine. Afterwards, the thief washed a cup and changed a bottle of wine. Why? Because he had to frame it. In two steps, the first step, the thief wanted to know if John had taken back the oil painting and drugged the wine before the two came back. When John and the German investigators drank, they performed the second step to identify the painting."!
"Thieves usually rely on lights and other references to the house. There are two experienced people in the house, and the thief may not have the courage to enter. At that time, mobile phones were not popular, and calling the landline was the best way, but unexpectedly John did not fall asleep. At this time, the owner proposed to identify the authenticity of the painting, and John did not doubt that he had it, so he agreed. Then he drank sleeping pills and wine, and John was attacked and taken away without any warning. How could he deal with this situation? The owner came up with a plan to kill two birds with one stone, and not only could he get compensation, but also oil paintings. That was to let John take the blame."
Bella grew up and said, "Yu Ming, it's a pity that you don't write a book. There are too many accidental factors in it, right?"
Yu Ming shook his head and said, "No, there is only one accidental factor. A German accomplice had an accident. Let's look at the details. Before the two investigators returned to the UK from Germany, they notified the insurance company and the owner. As the owner, they hoped to know the news as soon as possible, and John would not doubt it."
Montero shook his head: "No, it's too long, and the physical evidence is not there, and it cannot be confirmed at all. And Yu Ming, you are tough inferring the story of the incident under the premise that John is a good person. I think you won't believe it yourself."
Yu Ming said helplessly: "The evidence is really not what I am good at, but at least I explained that there is a possibility that John is a good person."
Bella sighed: "No matter what, it cannot be confirmed now."
"Not necessarily." Montero said suddenly: "According to what Yu Ming said, something will inevitably be left behind."
"What?" the three of them asked.
"Bone." Montero replied.
Yu Ming's enumeration proves one thing: John is a good man and must have died that day. All three of them have a positive attitude towards this statement. If John died that day, it would prove his innocent.
Montero explains in more detail: "The foundation of John being a good man is based on the fact that the owner is a bad man. The owner and the owner are thirty kilometers away from the John's house. From the position, there is no place where the body will not be found. Or I can say that if John was a good man, his body would probably be buried in the owner's house."
Bella shook her head: "It's been ten years, even if she is buried in the owner's home, she has been dealt with by the owner..."
Bella suddenly stopped talking to Nancy. The three of them talked about this without emotion, which had seriously hurt Nancy. Montero said: "Nancy, go to the bar to have some drinks by yourself."
"Yeah." Nancy nodded and left.
Montero said: "It is very likely that there have been countless opportunities to transport the body away and bury it in a wilderness over the past decade."
"Wait." Yu Ming suddenly remembered what Ye Zhan once said to him. At that time, Mandy came to China to find sapphires. Yu Ming needed a person who gave the head to trigger a call. The person who gave the head would be sentenced to several years in prison. Yu Ming asked Ye Zhan if there was a suitable person. Ye Zhan seriously warned Yu Ming that such people would have no integrity to sell themselves for money. After they were released from prison, they would probably use this case as a threat and regard Yu Ming as an ATM. Yu Ming said: "Can you secretly check the buyer's bank transfer records in the past few years? See if he had regularly remittances to designated private accounts."
Yu Ming's guess is unlikely, but there is no better way at present. He can only use the enumeration method to indicate the possibility, and then collect more information to deny the enumeration method. As the saying goes, "It's a good idea to get lucky if you hit it, and you won't lose money if you hit it." This is Yu Ming's motto.
Montero was silent for a while: "Yu Ming, you stand from your personal perspective, no problem. Our investigator organization has undergone three large-scale investigations in the John case. If this is the fourth time, will it be the fifth time?"
Bella disagreed: "Siso, we don't have to disturb the organization. I think I can do this."
"…···" Montero thought for a while and nodded: "Okay, you're responsible for this."
"Yeah..." Bella thought, looking at Yu Ming: I just want me to take responsibility, and deliberately asked me to volunteer?
Yu Ming looked at Bella: No, it is hard to imagine that Montero has such a dark heart with a brave, upright and fair appearance.
It is very simple for professionals to check the account. Bella is a professional. After fifteen minutes, Bella got the transfer record of the owner over the past three years. However, the owner is a businessman, and a large number of transfer records should be checked slowly and carefully. Bella first takes a fixed value: "There is no record of transferring the same amount to an account every month, year or weekly."
Montero looked at his watch: "Miss Nancy, I'll take you home first."
Nancy looked at Yu Ming and Bella and nodded: "Okay.
Yu Ming stood up: "It's time for me to leave, too."
Bella stopped: "You have to help me if you cause trouble."
Chapter completed!