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Chapter 52 The Great Crash (8)

Hoover is very clear that US$4.4 billion is not a whole order, but a hundred companies and hundreds of intended orders are combined, with high and low profits. If the crisis does not break out and everything is working normally, the overall net profit after tax should be around US$1 billion. If the 20% discount is required, there is still a little profit, but the space is already very small.

However, due to the economic crisis, all raw materials, including labor costs, are falling rapidly. Not to mention 20% off or 60% off, he can guarantee a capital guarantee. So he proposed a 30% off discount and a minimum of 65% off, so that he can explain to the business community - this is an amazing victory, involving millions of jobs.

But now Contini is bargaining 30% off in one go, and he also needs to include the previous deposit. This is simply to make these large companies lose 1 billion yuan in turn. How can he tolerate this?

He said unhappily: "Calais, I'm here to see you because you hope to have a good deal with you, not just talk nonsense here..."

"Your Excellency, I am also discussing the matter. The public and public relations will discuss cooperation with you. If it is our personal relationship, such as if you have any company that needs special care, I agree without saying a word."

Hoover nodded, his attitude was pretty good, and said, "Okay, we all said calmly, 30% off is really too low..."

"That's because you are looking at the problem based on the current situation and came to the conclusion that 30% off is still low. I am looking at the problem based on the future. My logic is that the main products, raw materials and labor costs in the United States will see a sharp drop next year. I guess it will cut one-third to half of the current basis. Do you believe it?"

Hoover shook his head: "How is that possible?"

"Don't believe it?" Contini smiled, "Look at the data... The delivery price of Libyan standard crude oil in September this year was US$1.46 per barrel, which is very close to the selling price of US$1.5 per barrel. The prices of the latter forward delivery varieties are higher, for example, the delivery in December was US$1.54 per barrel, which shows that the market was very optimistic about the future market at that time. Now, in November, the situation has reversed sharply. Do you know how much the delivery price has fallen? US$1.02 per barrel, and the delivery price in June next year is even lower, only US$0.84 per barrel. The market has changed from bullish to a sharp bearish. And I dare to assert that the price of falling to US$0.75 per barrel is just around the corner, which is equivalent to falling half of the highest point.

Let’s look at silver again. In theory, this commodity has a little currency value in addition to industrial uses, but it still fell sharply. In September, the price of silver in the London market was $0.58/ounce, but now it is only $0.45/ounce. The signs of further decline are obvious - you should know that except for gold, everything else has fallen.

Let’s look at the lira exchange rate, which has a very important indicator for me. The lira was 20 lira at that time: 1 US dollar, and the current market is 30 lira: 1 US dollar, and you can’t even hold on. You can see it at a 30% discount according to the price of the US dollar, and I see it at a 45% discount according to the price of the lira! If you say 30% off, it means that I use the lira to calculate the full price!"

Hoover suddenly realized and finally understood where the perspectives of looking at the problem are very different: if these equipment are placed in the United States, it is too low for 30% off, and the old goods are also 10-2% off... But if it is placed in Italy, the price is indeed not low. Can you say that the lira has nothing to do with American products? The president wants to ship the equipment to Italy for installation, commissioning, production and sales. How could he turn a blind eye to the lira?

He said subconsciously: "Or should we depreciate the US dollar?"

"The US dollar has depreciated. Compared with the price of gold, the US dollar and the pound have depreciated by more than 15%!" Contini shrugged, "The fact is not that the US dollar appreciates, but that the currency depreciation in other countries is even more severe, which has caused the US dollar to appreciate."

“Then should I strengthen my expectations of depreciation in order to drive exports?”

"Your Excellency, it's useless. It's not a problem of competitiveness now, it's a problem of demand. If the United States does not buy Italian goods, why should Italy buy American products?"

"I didn't set restrictions on Italian products?"

"But didn't you say you wanted to raise tariffs to protect American jobs?" Contini spread his hands. "Even if you don't raise tariffs, no one will buy Italian goods, because Italian goods are all middle-class lifestyles, and life is almost impossible to maintain. How can you buy these things? So it's not that tariffs restrict trade, but that poverty restricts trade..."

Hoover sighed: Contini was talking about Italy's problem, and isn't it also about Britain and France? Now that the crisis is coming, Britain and France are trying hard to find ways for their domestic industries, so the trade frictions faced by the United States will become more and more severe. Once it falls into a "tariff war" and a "trade protection war", there is only one premise of reciprocity trade - Britain and the United States trade must be equal, and France and the United States trade will definitely pursue reciprocity, but the problem is that the United States' size is larger than the sum of the three countries of Britain, France and Italy. How can it be equal? ​​This is simply unbalanced!

"So, what you mean is that if the United States wants to continue exporting to Italy, it must sell at this loss price?"

"I didn't force anyone to sell me things. You, you and the business community must adjust your mindset. Now it's the buyer's market. Currency and cash flow are the most important. Commodities and equipment are not that valuable - I can't find old goods alone, and I have to be responsible for myself and the capital, right? Don't buy cheap things to buy expensive ones?" Contini smiled, "Didn't you say that, my subordinates are buying 2 hand cars, with a new car price of more than 1,000 US dollars, and many of them are only driven

After 1-2 years, it has been sold for more than 100 US dollars. Are you losing money? Of course, you can’t survive without selling this family, so you have to do your best to keep your survival. Survival is the capital to make a comeback in the future, and the same goes for the company. How many of these tycoons on Wall Street can survive the crisis? It’s just bankruptcy. At that time, I still said that the price is as much as I want? In this world, don’t argue about losses or profits, now we are discussing how to live!”

"But your price is too low, they won't accept it. I can help you get 60% off at most..."

"That's because they haven't recognized the situation yet. Just like the stock is still hyping up at 450 points - the market will educate them, don't worry too much, they will recognize the situation one day." Contini smiled, "Actually, I am buying old factories now, and bankrupt assets are completely helping you. I have solved many practical problems for you. If I hadn't purchased them, these equipment would have to be recycled at the price of scrap iron - you should know that even scrap iron has fallen by one-third!"

Hoover knew that this would not be discussed anyway: Contini wanted the floor price - which may come in the future, but it has not yet arrived; Wall Street wanted a guaranteed price - which was a little higher than the current market, and the difference was too big, and Hoover was powerless. Besides, what Contini said made sense. His first clearance of bankrupt assets did reduce a lot of trouble for the government.

"Then I'll do their jobs later..." Hoover stood up and said goodbye, and asked quietly, "Give me a bottom limit, how much can I pay? Don't say something hurtful like a 30% off."

Contini hesitated for a moment and repeated: "30% off!"

Seeing that Hoover was about to get angry, he added in a low voice: "The deposit is not included..."
Chapter completed!
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