Chapter 32 The Big Short (19)
After expressing his views on Fisher and speculators, Contini deliberately raised his voice and increased his tone: "I repeatedly emphasized one sentence: No country can prosper by speculating in stocks, and real estate speculation will flourish. Even if it can occasionally succeed for a while, it will eventually be liquidated by history. The most tragic thing is that the victims of the liquidation moment are also victims of the hype - this is what makes me most sad."
"I am Thomas, a reporter from Wall Street Journal. Will United Group continue to reduce its holdings?"
"We have actually published a statement about the reduction of stocks, but we didn't pay attention to it at the beginning. Now it's down. We found that United Group is reducing its holdings, and we are actually victims. If there is no pressure to run, what should I raise funds for reducing my holdings?" Contini said coldly, "What should I do in the future? We will deal with it according to actual market needs. In short, United Group will exhaust the last $1 to defend United Bank!"
Everyone could not accuse the United Group of United. This was indeed their power, but when they thought of the sword of Damocles that could fall by more than 1 billion stocks above the stock market, everyone felt that the future market risk was indeed very high.
On September 18, the stock market did not fall sharply this time, but began to consolidate and rest. However, bonds with few declines in the past two days showed signs of large-scale selling. Not only did United Group's long-term bonds be sold, but other large consortiums also were selling. Contini knew that the effect of his voice to the market had emerged. Many institutions were reducing their holdings of bonds to offset the stock margin and reduce leverage. The reason why they were unwilling to reduce leverage through reducing their holdings was because they still had a sense of luck in their hearts, thinking that this time was just a fake fall similar to the previous two times, and it would still get up in the end. If they got off the car now, it would be hard to get on the car again.
So Livermore's operation became a small harvest, climbing over 390 points and closing at less than 380 points, and using repeated back and forth oscillations to squeeze oil - now is the best personal performance time for traders, and the big drop and big rise cannot tell the traders' skills. This technique tests the traders' practical ability.
"Long live!" The 12 traders couldn't help but cheer.
Selling big orders and receiving big orders is boring. Only by placing orders can they see their level by flexibly operating. They flew their fingers, drew arrows on the telex paper, and then passed the data to the trading seats. Through repeated harvesting, they also got more than 50 million US dollars in a day, and then they all took over the United Group long-term bonds sold by the outside world. With the large purchase of United Trust, the United Group long-term bonds are currently less than 50 million US dollars. These positions will not emerge until they are extremely panic.
United Bank's withdrawals continue, but now there are significantly fewer new withdrawals, and institutional withdrawals are starting to increase - although investors are very annoyed that United Group takes the lead in reducing their holdings, depositors think that the president is good and is a responsible person. Only by reducing holdings can we have money to deal with the run. Now everyone is more confident that United Group can hold on for a few more days. In society, there is also a support for Contini, while the other party retorts.
Late at night, Francisco went out for a walk, visited the crowd who were still queuing for withdrawals, chatted with them about family matters, and sent them a call to the security guard to go home and rest. They could come back tomorrow morning with the call, and queued up without any effort - many depositors were paying attention to Contini's speech, and they heard that the president advised everyone to reduce their holdings, and everyone was in a complicated mood.
Someone asked, "Mr. Francisco, will the stock really fall?"
Francisco smiled: "The president said it will fall several times. The difference is when it will fall and how much it will fall. You asked me to specifically talk about which day it will fall and which day it will fall sharply. I can't tell you the exact answer, but it is undoubtedly not optimistic about the future market. There is no need to hide it."
"Don't Wall Street tycoons come forward to save them?"
"How to save it? Money is so nervous now. Are you here to queue up for fear of not withdrawing money? If everyone can promise not to withdraw money, there will be a run crisis? Similarly, if everyone can agree not to sell stocks, will the stock market fall?" Francesco said helplessly, "No one can do it, so we can only do our best..."
On September 19, the stock market was dominated by consolidation again, and even closed a cross star - it seemed to be at the equilibrium point. So various remarks appeared in the market again, and many people promoted: "Don't be afraid, this is a technical adjustment and will rise!"
This self-talking cry has also infected many people. Everyone is expressing a cautious and bullish attitude. Even Fisher, who was a little discouraged two days ago, cheered up in an interview with reporters: "I called the president and asked for opinions, but it doesn't mean I gave in... What, you said you should apply for financial aid? I was joking with him. He is a Monopoly, so I can see if I can fight Qiufeng - my assets are enough to withstand a 20% decline on the current basis. Do you believe it will continue to fall by 20%? Anyway, I don't believe it."
However, Livermore saw clearly that the downward force accumulated on the market is getting stronger and stronger. As the saying goes, "It will fall for a long time." It depends on how the stock market will fall - whether it is mainly a negative decline, or consolidation first, and then a painful plunge.
At the press conference in the past two days, everyone asked about the topic of bank runs. United Bank currently seems to have no problem dealing with small and medium-sized depositors, but it seems that the relationship between docking institutions and lending has not been completely straightened out. This is a place that has been widely criticized by the market. As for Contini's judgment on the future market, since there was neither rising nor falling, Contini and the reporters tacitly stopped talking.
Just as the situation gradually evolved, a conspiracy around United Group and United Bank was also in the organization. Six bankers who had initially used stability maintenance funds to stabilize the market structure gathered together to discuss the harvest of United Bank. Mitchell was very positive. He had received a clear notice from the board of directors - they had contacted the Federal Reserve, and the other party said that they would not relax the high pressure on United Bank because of Hoover's pressure and ideas. This was even recognized by Mellon - he and Hoover were obviously not exactly the same.
"Gentlemen, the news will spread soon. It will be better to spread this afternoon, which will be enough for a weekend to brew and ferment. When we join forces to push the stock price of United Bank on Monday, triggering panic selling, and then we will take it at the right time, so that we can gradually increase the shareholding at a low level."
"You Citigroup wants to annex United Bank?"
"No, no, no, we don't have this intention. We just expressed concern about this and hope to carry out some cooperation in other fields." Mitchell did not disclose the content of "cooperation" - the backend boss has said that United Bank is the financial tentacle of United Group and cannot move. If it moves, it will be necessary to turn over the table. However, United Pharmaceutical's Bailangduoxi patent seems to be able to move, and it is best to buy out the drug directly - there is also a profit of tens of millions a year. It is preliminary to judge that Contini will be willing to cut his losses - as long as he still wants to keep other more important industries.
"Will that lead to a sharp decline in the stock market?"
"So we have to short as soon as the market opens. This afternoon, everyone can ambush some short orders. Of course, don't have too many, so as to make the market close smoothly as possible."
The other few looked at each other and agreed to this idea: Everyone worked hard for two days and found that it was too tiring to pull up. It would be better to watch the game below. What? You said that the stability maintenance fund is unanimously optimistic about the future market? Don’t be stupid. The stability maintenance fund is to make money, not to act as a philanthropist. Just like the national teams of some countries cannot lose money, how can the stability maintenance fund formed by Wall Street tycoons not make money?
Friday, September 20.
That morning, a reporter interviewed Fed officials, who revealed that United Bank currently has US$600 million in the Federal Reserve, and 1.4 billion in other banks. Except for the 100 million that has been returned, the rest have not yet been returned; 300 million of those that have expired within one month, 800 million of those that have expired within three months, and the rest have expired within 6-12 months respectively.
Although it is normal to renew the loan when the loan is maturity, the Federal Reserve hinted that given the record of United Bank's large amount of loans to the outside world, even if President Hoover puts pressure on them, they will not extend or renew the loan. As for whether other banks will renew or extend the loan, it is up to the will of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Reserve will not interfere in the specific affairs of other banks.
The reporters in the financial circle have been in the long run, so why don’t they understand the implications of the Federal Reserve? ——You see, I don’t plan to continue to lend, do you still have to lend? Don’t blame me for not reminding me in advance if I don’t pay it back then.
Here you can see the operation of the entire Wall Street capital circle: with Mellon as the link, Wall Street tycoons are ready to use the Fed to exert pressure to gain benefits from United Banks - who would rather reduce their holdings than come to us to ask for "aid" funds of 25% interest, you "break the rules." Since Contini refused to speak, he could only toast and not eat the fine wine: actively release the regulatory atmosphere, let the market suppress United Banks, and at the same time no longer lend or renewal, oppressing United Group to give up the benefits.
Although the tycoons are usually polite to Contini, "Calais long and Calais short" is the key moment, and no one except green bills will recognize anything! Isn't Contini the same?
More and more reporters are getting the news. Just as they were about to ask about the details at the United Group press conference on Friday night, they suddenly received a notice from the News Office of the General Office of the United Group: the press conference originally scheduled to be held on Friday should be postponed to Sunday evening due to major matters.
What exactly is a major matter? The reporters couldn't help asking, and finally they asked for it. There was only a vague news: United Group was closing its doors for a meeting, and the topic might be how to deal with the Federal Reserve's hints. This explanation quickly convinced everyone, so they were particularly looking forward to what Contini would say at the press conference on Sunday night.
Some people are worried that the stock market will continue to fall, but some people think that United Bank is currently a time bomb and don’t know when it will explode. It is better to take the initiative to clear mines like this.
Hoover, who had been a little turbulent before, was not ready to call Contini at this time, because the Fed had made up his mind and was unable to shake his urgency. Calling would only attract Contini's questioning and criticism. Mellon didn't care - this was originally a unanimous decision by Wall Street. Although Contini was just an Italian second generation, and United Group was just an outsider? Who would you eat if you don't eat it?
"Calais, I heard the news that the Fed is ready to cooperate with the consortium to suppress us." Francisco frowned, "Either Mellon was making trouble behind, or Morgan was making trouble behind. In short, someone must have a problem..."
Contini nodded: "I understand, but don't be afraid. I can't ask for anything. I have prepared nuclear weapons for them!"
"Nuclear weapon? What is this?"
Contini found himself letting go in a hurry, and concealed: "It's nothing, a powerful weapon, enough to change the pattern of the whole world!"
Many years later, Francisco wrote in his personal diary: Before the crisis broke out in 1929, the president said he wanted to use nuclear weapons to detonate - I didn't understand at the time, but now I finally understand. What I wonder is why the president knew this thing at that time as if he was helpless? I secretly inquired once. The president laughed and jokingly used the results of the cutting-edge research on nuclear physics at that time to excuse me, but I found that there were many secrets in him, and even I couldn't see clearly. Could it be that he was God's illegitimate son? Thank God, such a person was born in Italy! He actually had a relationship with our family... Vivian really had vision. As a father, I am inferior to myself! As a father, I feel inferior to myself!
He expressed his amazement with three consecutive "sadness" and later Vivian packed up his belongings and found this page of diary after he passed away - she thought about it for a long time and burned it down. Some things, knowing too much is not a good thing, and women should learn to pretend to be confused.
"Please invite Mr. Livermore here first." Contini changed the subject at the right time. After Livermore arrived, he asked the other party directly: "How many short positions have you reached?"
"According to your requirements, it has reached 5 billion. If it is not enough, you can add another 200 million to 300 million this afternoon. If it is more, it may cause market changes."
Contini shook his head: "It doesn't matter, the news has spread. You can go and get 5.5 billion."
Livermore nodded with a serious expression: He also knew what the news was. He was worried about the future of United Bank - so many old guys who eat people and don't spit bones were staring at each other, which was really a bit uncomfortable.
"What? Are you scared? Do you know why I had to get the press conference to Sunday night?"
Livermore shook his head.
"I have a big surprise gift package for them!" Contini slowly stood up and walked to the huge floor-to-ceiling window, looked at the streets of Manhattan, and uttered a word that Livermore would never forget, "It's not that I look down on them, in my eyes, these so-called investors and speculators are all garbage! Only you and I are worthy of this era!"
"President, you are the only one, I am just a housekeeper..." Livermore said respectfully.
Contini laughed: "Jesse, you are humble again. Listen to me, enjoy it after making money by shorting, don't rush to buy the bottom in the future..."
"OK……"
Chapter completed!