The twenty-ninth chapter big short (16)
"We just got the news that Standard and Moody's have lowered the credit rating of United Group's long-term bonds. What do you think about this?"
"This is their right, we have reservations about it. United Group has the confidence, ability and determination to defend its market position." Contini disagreed. "As for the specific measures, it is not convenient to disclose it for the time being. This is the business secret of our group. The Group is in Europe and has made many achievements. The president is considered to have experienced many battles. I have never seen any scenes? You reporters should not hear any wind or rain. At least we don't have these rating adjustments!"
There was a lot of booing and laughter below. Compared to old tycoons such as Rockefeller and Morgan, the president really doesn't know how to be modest at all. However, this is in line with the president's personality, he is still young. He is only 26 years old this year. What were these tycoons doing when they were 26 years old? I'm afraid that even their names are not known? At least the president can be as famous as them now, and even at some point more suitable as a representative of market leaders and public opinion leaders than them. That's enough.
"For the last question, you have expressed a bad attitude towards the stock market, but the vast majority of people hold the opposite view. What do you think about this?"
Contini smiled: "Isn't this normal? Everything always has different opinions, and the stock market is the same. If everyone is optimistic about the price increase of stocks, then who sold the stocks you want to buy to you?"
This sentence has made many people think and controversial. As a reporter, who doesn’t want news? Controversial news is good news!
In the evening, Hoover and Mellon received the content of Contini's speech at the press conference and couldn't help but frown: "What do he mean by these words? United Group wants to reduce its holdings of shares?"
Mellon said: "I don't think it's like, he is just showing his confidence in stabilizing depositors without hesitating to reduce his holdings. In fact, there is no problem with United Bank's liquidity. He insists on saying that there is a problem, it's just a mismatch in terms of term and regional mismatch. But who doesn't have such a thing? It's just that United Bank has invested more in Europe for the development of United Group. I received news that he has also set a lot of industrial equipment in Germany. It's impossible for Germans to lend him money. He has to rely on United Bank to arrange the money, so as long as the run pressure is eliminated, he can close the stall. Of course, he will definitely reduce his holdings of $500 million, after all, there is a very good price."
"But if this threat is to reduce its holdings, it will cause unstable stock market people..."
"Your Excellency, the most important thing now is to let the run pass."
"How to get over it? Let the Fed give up?"
"This is impossible. The Federal Reserve exists for the stability of the United States' financial situation, not for the high-point stock market in the United States..." Mellon shrugged, "Isn't this great today? Let's dive and pull up, wash the market, and provide some risk warnings. According to common sense, the bull market is a slow rise and fall. If you really fall slowly, you must pay attention."
"Okay, I won't talk about the stock market for now. How do you tell me how to let the run pass?"
"1-2 days is not enough. These people must be allowed to line up for three days, and then they find that they can withdraw money, and the pressure of running will naturally decrease." Mellon explained, "The Federal Reserve did issue a risk warning, and the United Group has fully responded, and both sides are correct."
"Who is wrong?"
"It's right! The Fed is worried that United Bank will not be able to withdraw money, but now United Bank reduces its holdings on the one hand, and United Group is the supporter. It doesn't matter whether they can withdraw money. United Group is worried about the loss of credibility. As long as they can cope with runs and domestic capital flows, the credibility will only increase, and the funds will come back." Mellon comforted him, "Just wait and see. Other big banks are discussing to establish stable funds tonight. When United Bank is almost consuming cash, I will ask other banks to lend a helping hand."
This sentence seems impartial on the surface, but in fact other banks have already greeted Mellon: Let the Ministry of Finance not intervene in the United Bank's bailout so quickly. It should put some pressure on the bank first, and then everyone will reach out. Mellon also agreed that he is also a big consortium behind him. The Minister of Finance is only a part-time job. If it weren't for the sake of rights, with his identity and status, he would have come to work for this salary.
Just as United Group's press conference was held, Citibank General Manager Mitchell, Albert Wiggin, President of Chase National Bank, William Porter, President of Guaranteed Trust, Thomas Lamont, Partner of Morgan, George Baker Jr., and Sward Prosay, President of Bankers Trust, were gathering to discuss how to establish a stable fund. These investment companies suffered a lot of direct losses in today's decline. The most typical one is the group of shares that United Group's debt-to-equity conversion has hit the share conversion price many times today. Although it finally barely closed on the share conversion price, it means that the profits over the past year have been wiped out.
Some people have proposed to allow United Group to repurchase shares to stabilize the stock price, while others have expressed different views. The former is aimed at maintaining vested interests, while the latter is aimed at finding ways to control part of United Group's industry. Everyone has different purposes, but the words they say are very high-sounding.
Mitchell has received a clear order from the board of directors and has the latter attitude: "United Bank is currently dealing with the run, so United Group cannot use the funds reduced by the reduction for stock repurchase. And you should note the fact that Ziano Xiao said that he reduced his holdings by 500 million shares. In fact, we know that he has leverage. After the reduction, it will be about 100 million yuan, and up to 200 million yuan. I think this amount of funds is only enough for him to deal with the run, and it is impossible to buy back the stock."
"No wonder they are unwilling to participate in the Stock Market Stability Fund."
"That's because Ziano himself is not optimistic." Porter said with a lip voice. "He has to prove that he is right, otherwise there will be endless problems waiting for him when he holds a press conference in the future."
“Do you want to blame the decline on the United Bank’s sell-off?”
"I don't think so. On the one hand, this announcement seems to have a conflict with our United Bank, and on the other hand, it inappropriately strengthens the voice of United Group. They sell the market and fall. Is Ziano the baton of the stock market?"
Lamont analyzed: "This is just a fuse, in fact, the United Bank stocks have been in the selling plan we expected. They have sold out until now. President Ziano's subsequent views on the stock market determine what position they will take. I don't think United Bank will participate in the rescue of the market and they also need treatment!"
"It's no big deal without United Bank participation, and it doesn't matter if Bank of America doesn't participate." George Baker Jr. shrugged, "It's enough for us to rely on a few companies."
Prosay added: "But I think Ziano's words make sense. Currently, the 10% margin is too low. A slight turbulence will cause forced balance. Today we have forced balanced more than 20 customers. The headache is not that the market rebounds after the forced balance and causes customer disputes. The headache is how to protect the position not to be penetrated in the violent market fluctuations. Today, two positions have actually penetrated when the decline is the largest, and fortunately it was pulled up again later."
"Then let's increase by 2 percentage points, one this week, and another next week."
"agree!"
"I agree too!"
Before the opening of the market on September 17, these six companies jointly released a brief press conference, announcing... The heads of several of our financial institutions studied the fluctuations in the stock market yesterday and the trend of selling low prices. We believe that the overall situation is fine. It is the technical situation that caused the adjustments on the day. The overall risks of the stock market are controllable and the fundamentals are good. Of course, in order to further calm down the fluctuations and reduce losses, we have formulated some measures:
First, each member invested US$40 million, totaling US$240 million to form a stability maintenance fund;
Second, increase the margin level, increase from 10% to 11% this week, and increase by 1 percentage point next week;
Third, strengthen communication with market stakeholders to avoid unnecessary misunderstandings.
The reporter interviewed several tycoons. Their answers were much more boring than Contini. Most of them were slick and could understand them no matter how they understood them. Only Mitchell said a few words: "It is normal for everyone to have different views on the future market. Just as the president swears that United Bank has no problem, but the Fed still issued a risk warning, and the people still went to withdraw money. For the same thing, all interest classes have different opinions, and only time can prove everything..."
Time to prove everything is coming soon. With the expectation, the stock market officially started and everyone held their breath to watch today's market performance.
Due to Contini's steady statement and the statements of 6 banks, the stock market opened high at 413 points and quickly launched a rush to 420 points. However, Livermore saw clearly that although the stock index was slowly rising, the selling began to gradually increase, rather than triggering more follow-ups as the stock index climbed like before. He knew that after this decline yesterday, everyone's psychological expectations had completely changed. The United Stocks have had a lot of boosts, but due to the downward reduction in the long-term bond rating, the bond price has fallen steadily and has fallen below the $90 mark.
He tried to make the trader absorb more than 3 million US dollars, and then threw it aside. This place is not the main battlefield at present. Only after the panic is vented will the bonds go crazy.
At 10 o'clock, the stock index launched its third attack against 425 o'clock: stand up, fall down, stand up again, fall down again. There is no 3 minutes to stabilize at 425 o'clock. At this time, Livermore thought the time was ripe and shouted: "Continue attack!"
ps: Please give me a ticket for the next month. If you pass 1400 today, I will send you another ticket tonight...
Chapter completed!