Chapter 19 The Big Short (6)
ps: The 800th monthly ticket is updated
On September 9, the Federal Reserve Bureau, which had basically made a judgment, reported to the upward trend, and said something in a lot of ways. In other words, in addition to the consideration of 800 million US dollars of gold, the United Bank's U.S. branch also transferred nearly US$4 billion in positions to the outside world. If United Bank declares bankruptcy on the spot at this time, the United States will have at least US$4 billion in funds that cannot be recovered. Theoretically, the Federal Reserve has the right to sue the loans issued by United Bank in the future, but these companies are scattered in Europe, so it is difficult to collect debts from home.
4 billion US dollars is not a small amount. The accumulated loans the United States has issued to Germany's Doves a few years ago are only 2.78 billion. 4 billion is enough to fully sort out the financial system of a European industrial power. Finance Minister Mellon slapped the table in his office and said furiously: "Nonsense, this is simply nonsense, let them return the money!"
"The other party said that the loan has been issued and cannot be obtained. Anyway, there has been no default. Who stipulates that the loan cannot be issued?"
"I don't believe that these loans have been issued to other European companies. They must be using their own way to evade supervision." Mellon said, "Click on the phone and I'll call President Ziano."
"He attended the New York Investor Summit Forum today. He was not on the scene. He was responsible for United Bank President Francisco..."
"It's useless to find him. He's just a professional manager. The real backstage boss is Ziano. You say hello to him immediately and say I'll visit him tomorrow, but I'll report to the president now."
"Do you want to disclose it or publicly condemn it?"
Mellon shook his head: "No, you can't do this. To be honest, he has not violated the rules of the game now. He has made the most of the rules, so we can't expose this matter yet. We still have to persuade him to get back the funds. He wants money to buy industrial equipment, but he can't use this kind of risk-taking method. This is not what a gentleman does."
Of course Mellon knew that it would not work if it was exposed, which would trigger a crisis in the entire banking industry, so he could only let the Fed give Francisco a death order. In any case, the 800 million gold and the loans currently issued must be recovered as soon as possible. At the same time, the United Group also needs to provide guarantees. Of course, the term can be longer. As long as the promise is made, the Ministry of Finance will not control too tightly, the president still has face.
Mellon immediately went to Hoover to report, but in fact, there have always been differences in ideas between him and Hoover: Mellon, as a typical consortium leader, believed that more space should be given to capital, while Hoover believed that national control should be carried out from the perspective of national leaders.
But Mellon asked for freedom again, and he also gave freedom to the American consortium. He did not intend to give the Italian consortium the same freedom, so he took Contini's eye drop when reporting to Hoover.
Hoover was also shocked after hearing this. After all, he had seen many storms and waves. After a moment of silence, he calmed down and said suspiciously: "This matter does not violate the law strictly, so it cannot be punished for the time being. What I want to figure out the most is why he did this? What is the benefit for him? He needs financing and can do it openly..."
"He has expressed his views many times recently, believing that the Fed's interest rate is too high, suffocating the development of industry and commerce, and at the same time, he feels that the stock market will usher in a profound adjustment." Mellon also calmed down, "He was afraid that he would not get so much money at that time... He had to take action first. He signed a total of 4.2 billion industrial orders and only paid a deposit of 500 million, which was still 3.7 billion! Even if he paid in three years, he would have to pay 1.2 billion a year!"
"I'll call him. This matter needs a proper and decent solution. Try not to cause trouble. The Fed's verification team can come back... Just find out the big problem, don't worry about the details."
"The Fed said that they have not yet captured the evidence of good illegality, they..."
"Idiot! The president scolds them for being stupid and it's really not unfair to them at all!" Hoover pounded the table and said impatiently, "What evidence do they want to find? So what if they find it out? Should they lock Ziano or kill it? So what if there is evidence? The important thing is to get the money back. If there is no evidence, everyone will persuade them, and the president will also have to save face. Everyone will calm down. What does it mean to make a desperate fight? Do you force them to take away all 4 billion? What's the point is that money is not a human..."
"They said Ziano is still in New York, yes...yes..."
"He is a diplomatic envoy and has diplomatic immunity. Who is dizzy to catch him? Even if he is arrested, can you catch him? Rely on the police? Don't joke, those New York police can't even control the gangsters, and can still fight against the president's guards? They are in Algeria who are forced to take over the French foreign army! Rely on the army? How to use the army without the authorization of Congress? Do you want to fight against Italy? Don't the president have nothing to do in the end. We are both dealt with for abuse of power!" Hoover cursed with disdain, "The Fed bankers are usually above the top, and think they are proficient in economy and finance, politically and politically..."
He repeated it twice, couldn't find a suitable word to describe it. Finally, after holding it in for a long time, he finally squeezed out a word: "naive!"
Although Mellon and Hoover had some differences in their ideas, he still agreed with the other party in this matter: President Ziano should focus on coaxing, everyone should discuss it carefully, and never turn against each other. If the turn against each other, there will be a series of troubles waiting for the government's political, economic, financial, and diplomatic problems. He is now hating the Fed and checking other people's accounts at all times. Now he is not going to be able to poke someone's accounts, and it is not going to be able to poke him if he doesn't. It's better to pretend to be deaf and dumb at that time? Maybe the trouble is a little smaller.
This is a intensive explanation that Contini is still attending the investment summit. Before Contini's speech, it was economist Fisher who proposed the Fisher Formula. He advocated that he still continues to be optimistic about the stock market, although the stock market index is already a little high. The statement should be similar to the statements of the 7-8 giants in the previous period, so the response he won was average, and everyone just applauded politely.
Contini made his last speech, and the organizer's intention was very clear, and he wanted to take the president out to the finale. Because the president has always made explosive remarks, everyone was waiting to listen to his new proposals, especially not long ago, more than 170 investors jointly issued a statement saying that Contini had misread it, and the momentum of Dow Jones breaking through 450 points made everyone want to listen to his defense.
Among the characters sitting in the audience was Livermore. Looking at the big guys around him, he couldn't help but sigh: The president not only swears in his mouth, but also has a short position of more than 2 billion yuan. But do he dare to reveal these words? He dares to shake them out and keep them safe tomorrow and will be smacked by a Chicago typewriter.
Contini glanced around, laughed first, and then said something terrifying:
"Thank you very much for your comments on the stock market just now. I am honored to be your opponent. I have cleared all my stock positions..."
There was a whistle and a loud call from the audience, but the more explosive words were still behind.
"Not only that, I have gradually established a short position that matches my personal status and wealth!" Contini said, "I am a very sincere person. I sing in short words and short in my hands. And my attitude is clear. This is why the press likes me very much. I have never said ambiguity and can understand it afterwards. I put my judgment here..."
Everyone held their breath and listened quietly to the president's judgment.
"A big crisis and a sharp decline are waiting for us. They are not far away. Maybe next month or on Christmas eve..." Contini said slowly. "Since the beginning of this year, the agricultural product index has maintained a low level of consolidation, and workers' wages have not grown as much as last year. President Hoover's efforts to develop the economy have been strongly blocked by the Federal Reserve. He has used high interest rates to kill the vitality of the economy. Without economic vitality, he still hopes to have the vitality of the stock market? This cannot be a wise judgment. As far as I realize, the industrial and agricultural index reached its peak in June this year. Now the main commodities are unsold, and the European market has also grown weakly. The only best-selling products are only a few varieties. I would like to ask you, besides United Motorcycle and Bailangduofuji, can you find the third thing that is in short supply?"
Everyone in the audience narrowed their eyes and thought about it, it seemed that there was really nothing.
"Yes! The third thing that is in short supply is called stocks! There are 47 brokerage firms, more than 200 trusts, and more than 1,000 off-market underground black markets in New York. Even the tavern owners are making off-market bets. The only margin is his courage! Countless people were involved. I went to Boston to visit. The driver was asking if American Steel had risen by $5? I went to dinner, and the waiters hid on the side to discuss which stock is better. I went on a stroll on the street, and the shoe shining vendor grabbed me. Sir, should you recommend some stocks to you? United Pharmaceuticals is very good. This company invented a hundred-wave interest rate. Should I introduce you to someone who can buy common stocks there, but there is an extra $5 handling fee per share. Don't think it's expensive, you'll make a profit! This stock will sooner or later exceed $1,000 per share."
The audience burst into laughter and promoted United Pharmaceutical stocks to the president? Who doesn’t know that the president is the largest behind-the-scenes shareholder of United Pharmaceutical.
"The market is so crazy that I, the person who comes into contact with stocks every day, is trembling... The remaining industries of United Group: United Power, United Real Estate, United Shipping, United Airlines, also package and list? There are also United Movies, United Packaging, United Publication, United News Agency, United Refining, United Railway, United Electric Power, United Energy, and United Energy can also be supplied continuously? Oh, forgot, I also have United Education, United Telecommunications, United Construction, United Steel, United Shipyard, United Machinery, United Metallurgy..." Contini waved, "If you want, I can list the entire Italian heavy industry. This is a large asset package of more than 30 billion US dollars. According to the current stock market's three-fold price-to-book ratio, you can issue $90 billion in stocks. Or do you?"
Chapter completed!