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Chapter 24 Shorting Germany (4)

At 4:05, all the delayed data was cleared and the exchange rate was fixed above 5305. But everyone knows that this is by no means the final result, it is just the end of the German trading time. The Chicago Exchange in the United States will continue to trade. Even if Mark is not a key product in the United States, it still has a lot of reference value - the US closing price will determine the German opening price the next day.

Telegrams from the United States confirmed their speculation: the US market dropped sharply, directly hitting the price to 5,500, to 4:25 points, the transaction price was below 5,700, and there were very few buying...

William tried his best to squeeze out his body from a bunch of envious, jealous and manic colleagues, and wanted to report the situation with Contini, but found that the two were gone. Taking advantage of the turmoil on the exchange just now, Contini and Antonio hurriedly left, leaving only a note and a check of 10,000 US dollars for William.

"Mr. William: Thank you for your perfect work today. My impulse and immaturity have caused you trouble. Please help me close my position equivalent to US$4 million at a price of more than 6,000 on the next trading day. This is what I hold more impulsively. The check is a reward for your work. I wish you good luck and hope to continue to cooperate happily in the future!"

William took a deep breath, and his hand holding the check couldn't help but tremble - it was equivalent to an ordinary engineer's 20-year post-tax salary in one day. He was such a generous customer!

He knew how much money Contini made may be a height that he would never reach in his life, but he was not jealous because the customer took huge risks - as long as the price continued to rise by 5 percentage points, the customer's margin would evaporate completely. Only those who can take risks can have profits, and the greater the risk, the higher the profits. This is an irrefutable concept in the speculation world.

[Some students said they didn't understand the money-making routine. Let me give you a brief example: The essential meaning of short selling is that you borrow 4,000 marks from unspecified counterparts who are optimistic about the appreciation of the mark and then exchange it for 1 US dollar.

Now you have 1 dollar in your account. When the mark exchange rate becomes 8000:1, you can close the position. Just sell 0.5 US dollars and get 4000 marks and return it to the opponent. The other 0.5 US dollars is your net profit. Of course, this is just a theoretical income. In actual transactions, there are also spreads, handling fees, overnight positions, etc. that need to be deducted. The actual net income of this operation will be less than US$0.5, but it will not be much less, at least 0.45 or more.]

Contini's position price is basically close to 3925, with a position of about 16 million US dollars. If settled at a price of around 6000, it would be equivalent to making more than 5 million US dollars in a day! And William has reason to believe that 6000 will never be the end of Mark's depreciation. It is possible that it may fall below the 10,000 mark, but why should customers close their 4 million positions urgently? Does he think things are still repeated?

Since the customer clearly entrusts, he can only do it. Of course, he is determined to find a good price to sell without going against the customer's wishes and seeking the best interests of the customer - this is a reflection of the ability of an excellent broker.

"Uncle Antonio, I made a mistake today, a big mistake..." In the hotel where I stayed, Contini lowered his head and reviewed, "I shouldn't be too confident and impulsive. Things will always change unexpectedly, and I can't estimate it too much."

Antonio nodded. Of course he knew what Contini was wrong. The two had negotiated to hold a position of $10-12 million, but in extreme cases it could not exceed $14 million - this was because Contini took out an additional $50,000 as margin. However, Contini not only broke the position through the $12 million mark early, but even 14 million passed to the 16 million position. During this period, Antonio had tactfully reminded him twice, but Contini did not listen and firmly believed that the news would come.

Of course the news came, but it came too late and was about to close. This is a very dangerous move. Although Contini held a margin of nearly 800,000 US dollars, with a maximum margin of $20 million, under the action of 25 times leverage, as long as the Mark exchange rate rebounds by 4%, the margin will be completely wiped out. Antonio has even made up his mind that if the situation is not good, he will order William to force his position to reduce his position in the last 5 minutes.

Fortunately, God did not let the young master down in the end, and the news that should come came still - this also made people sweat and their hearts were in their throats. In the last few minutes, he was so nervous.

Now that the situation has turned around and the news is conclusive, and Contini's attitude of admitting his mistake is very sincere, he cannot hold on to it - after all, he is just a housekeeper rather than a boss.

He whispered: "Young Master, don't blame me for being too talkative. I can't make enough money, but I can lose all my losses. In this turbulent market, although you have good trump cards and enough confidence, you must prevent one trick from losing everything. I think you should learn from the master and the leader - entering Rome is actually quite sure, but the leader himself stays in the back where you can attack and retreat and defend. These are all lessons learned after suffering a big loss. Although young people suffer losses and are inevitably incurred, I still don't want you to encounter too many or too big setbacks!"

"You're right, I'm so excited, the speculative market can easily make people crazy..."

From the rally speech, persuading Glendini to welcome Mussolini into Rome, to opening newspapers, writing "Oneism, One Party, One Leader", promoting transportation strategies, and starting with Mark's loan, Contini has been taking risks, almost suppressing all his wealth and betting, but he won every time he bets. This caused his self-inflated consciousness and thought he could do everything. Today, this crisis that did not break out finally reminded Contini, who felt good about himself, at a critical moment, that he always walked such a tightrope, and sooner or later he would fall.

Antonio looked at him with relief: "Let's go through this matter. Don't feel too much psychological pressure. After all, you are the winner today, and you should celebrate yourself..."

"It's still early, I won't be at ease if I don't have money."

"Are you afraid that the exchange or bank will not give money?"

"If Mark depreciates violently, Germany will soon limit foreign exchange flows and even forcibly ban the interbank foreign exchange market. At that time, no matter how much money it makes, it only means paper. Getting the money and leaving Germany is serious."

"Okay, I'll arrange it later..." Antonio asked, "Will Mark continue to depreciate significantly?"

"It will definitely be! Because the German government will not pay compensation, the French will not give in, and it is impossible to reach an agreement for the rest of December. After the New Year, if the French do not get money, the French will definitely send troops. Germany is unable to resist..." Contini sighed, "Once the Ruhr area is occupied, the heart of the German economy will stop beating. In the future, not to mention 60 million, even 60,000 marks may not be able to exchange for 1 US dollar!"

Contini knew clearly that when the craziest depreciation of the mark was only 1 trillion mark could be exchanged for one dollar. Buying a bread requires sacks of banknotes, and even the face value of the banknotes is not as good as the price of the printing paper itself. Under this exchange rate and inflation system, the economy has no other end except for collapse, and more than 99% of the German people, who are suffering from disasters, will naturally be disappointed with politicians and bankers.

In other words, although Hitler came to power in 1932, his ruling foundation was already doomed in the economic catastrophe in 1923. In addition, in less than 10 years, the German people suffered two total collapses, like springs, the more severe the pressure, the more severe the explosion!

The initiator was the French government that insisted on occupying the Ruhr area by force in 1923. The policy adopted by France to suppress Germany not only did not suppress its opponents, but instead caused the destruction of the Third French Republic. This is a wonderful, self-realization irony in any case!
Chapter completed!
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