Chapter Thirteen The Second Speculation
"Father, I wonder if you have noticed the current economic and political situation in Germany?"
"Germany?" Old Ziano thought about it carefully, "It seems that the situation is not ideal and very messy, but I can't comment on the rest. I haven't paid much attention to it recently..."
"The reparations crisis in Germany is deepening. In July, Albert's government reluctantly delivered 2 billion Jinmak compensation, and then demanded a reduction in the amount of war compensation and a delay in payment after 1922 on the grounds of inflation and fiscal crisis. The United Kingdom, based on its traditional European balance of power policy and economic interests, was unwilling to weaken Germany excessively, and tried to reduce Germany's compensation obligations, and suggested that Germany reduce the total compensation to 50 billion Jinmak and postpone the repayment of four years. France, Belgium and we oppose the reduction in the total compensation of Germany and only agree to a delay of two years. It also requires that Germany bear the cost of occupying the troops during this period and submit the 'produce collateral', otherwise the Allied State has the right to occupy the Ruhr area."
After being reminded by Contini, Ziano, the old man suddenly realized that there was indeed a discussion topic on the agenda of today's meeting - whether it was consistent with France and Belgium's position on Germany's claims.
"Due to differences and crises, the German Mark exchange rate fell sharply, down 45% in just four months. Now it has reached the price of 4,300 marks to 1 dollar..." Contini's report was very solid, with all the German Mark exchange rate trend charts cut from newspapers and the summary of the German crisis newspapers related to the reports - there are Italian, German and English, which shows that the crisis is indeed deepening. Old Ziano reads it carefully and nods frequently while reading it.
"On the surface, this is due to the problem caused by the German-French reparations dispute. The deep reason is France's deep sense of insecurity and the French-German contradiction. In France's view, it is easy to make a comeback with Germany's industrial foundation, population size and geographical location. Therefore, it is very important to weaken or even dismember Germany, and eliminate Germany's industrial and military capabilities forever; and Britain, based on the traditional balance of power on the mainland, is not willing to weaken Germany too much and allow France to grow bigger in Europe; in addition, the United States is not willing to let Germany collapse, because this will not only cause the European economy to fall into chaos and hinder the sales of American products, but will also trigger a possible chain revolution throughout Europe..."
"So what you mean is that because Britain and the United States will intervene, and their strength is obviously stronger than the French, so this crisis will eventually be resolved peacefully?"
"Your judgment is ultimately correct, but I think there is another episode..." Contini emphasized, "The compensation issue is just an excuse for France. The amount of compensation in Germany cannot solve the problems faced by the French economy. The most important purpose of the Poongalai government (French Prime Minister) is to suppress Germany, so I assert that there will be a major event - for example, France and Belgium jointly sent troops to occupy the Ruhr area and forced Germany to submit! And this clamor has begun to appear in France and the Belgian media, otherwise the Poongalai government would not raise the cost of occupying the army this time."
Old Ziano was shocked: "How can Britain and the United States really sit back and watch this happen?"
"Of course, Britain and the United States will not help France suppress Germany, but they will not help Germany send troops to fight France. The people of Britain and the United States are now extremely disgusted with war, let alone help Germany fight the previous enemy. The German army has been disbanded, and it is impossible to fight against the French army with the 100,000 National Wehrmacht. As long as France wants to occupy it, it will definitely occupy it! But occupation cannot solve the problem. On the contrary, it is the brewing of another revolutionary crisis. Only when Britain and the United States will stand up and clean up the mess, and France can only give in at that time." Contini stood up and explained, "The Ruhr area is the lifeline of Germany's economy and industry. Once occupied by France, the German economy will collapse... Our political turmoil some time ago led to a 25% decline in the exchange rate. If the Ruhr area is occupied, how much do you think Mark will fall?"
"Maybe...at least...50% or more."
"If the crisis lasts for more than 3 months, I dare to expect Mark's decline to exceed 90%!" Contini, who has the experience of traveling through time, knew that the average mark's decline would eventually exceed 99.99999%. At the craziest time, 1 trillion mark can only be exchanged for $1, but he cannot say so sure. It is scary enough to predict that Mark will fall by 90%.
"So you want to do this speculation?" [Readers who have not seen any relevant content after "Iron Cross" 404 can follow the Weixin official account "Yueying Wutong" to obtain the subsequent plot]
"Yes, the main bet is that the Mark exchange rate has fallen. One-third of the positions are planning to directly speculate in foreign exchange, and the other two-thirds of the positions are buying foreign exchange, and then see if there are some other speculations." Contini told his plan, "I know you don't have 20 million lira on hand. I plan to use the family industry as collateral to borrow from the German bank and then complete this work. There is still a German bank in Rome. Your status and the influence of our family should make this loan easier."
If Contini came up and said he wanted 20 million lira to speculate, Old Ziano would definitely think that his son was crazy, but he had the first time to successfully speculate and base it. With the detailed discussion and analysis just now, Old Ziano was already seventy-sixth of the belief. After pondering for a moment, he said: "I can't guarantee whether the family industry can be borrowed from the bank to a Mark equivalent to 20 million lira, but I will try my best to try. In addition, the amount of this money is too large, and I am afraid that you will have risks yourself and need to arrange for others to assist you in managing it."
"Of course, I'm too young, and bankers will despise me. However, I hope I can have enough voice to arrange it."
"Yes, although it is a family industry, it will be yours in the final analysis. If you lose money, the losses will be yours..." Old Ziano smiled slightly and found that there were still 15 minutes left, so he asked casually, "I didn't expect to be the Minister of Transportation at the beginning. I thought the leader would let me serve as the Minister of Home Affairs, which would also be a care for you."
Old Ziano actually felt a little bit confused when he said this. Everyone knows that the Interior Minister has greater power. Unexpectedly, Mussolini took over all the Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, and Interior Minister alone. However, Contini's answer was unexpected: "No, father, I think it is better and more beneficial for you to be the Minister of Transportation than to be the Minister of Interior."
"Why?"
"Although the leader successfully formed a cabinet, it temporarily suppressed the voices of opponents, this resistance and opposition did not really disappear, but would be displayed in other forms. If you serve as the Minister of the Home Affairs Department, you will face endless protests, boycotts, and oppositions in the next few years. The leader's character will definitely require you to suppress..." Contini blinked, "This does not conform to your personality, nor does it conform to our family's social status and principles of life."
Old Ziano was silent. He was a nobleman and had a high social status before. He naturally understood the complexity of politics. Because of this, he was a relatively moderate senior in the Blackshirt Party. His methods were not as cruel as those of the four giants, and he also opposed excessive violence and blood. Otherwise, with his status and influence, how could he fall below the four giants?
He sighed: "The stability and order of the Interior Minister can be immediate, but the Transport Minister is not easy to be a Transport Minister. Italy's transportation system is outdated and broken, and it will cost money if it improves it slightly. Now the government is very short of money... If it cannot achieve results, the leader will not be satisfied."
"I have two ideas, I don't have to invest too much money, but the effect is very good..."
Chapter completed!