Volume III Past tense present tense 438 Judgment of the alum
Two things need to be accumulated and developed slowly, and we also need to seize the progress of the phenolic trumpet and step on a new level. The former is quantitative change, and the latter is qualitative change, and neither is missing.
Jiang Zhihan believes that the successful hosting of the dinner party to entertain the Australian Foreign Minister is a qualitative change in the Fang family's palace restaurant. It will bring its reputation and exhibition opportunities to a new stage. Looking back, the strategy of moving from outside to inside is a correct strategic direction. What needs to be done now is to consolidate the results of the current stage and push the reputation of the palace restaurant upward. The Australian Prime Minister's reception at the beginning of next year has been basically determined. That will be the next major battle.
After returning from the capital, Jiang Zhihan stayed in Qingzhou for a week and went to Ningzhou to meet Ouyang and Alum. At his father's request, Alum continued to pursue a doctorate degree under Professor Jing, not far from graduation.
Jiang Zhihan and Alum Ouyang met with each other about investing in the US stock market. Since the domestic stock market was withdrawn from profits from investing in the domestic stock market, the domestic stock market has continued to be sluggish in the past two years. What is worse than this is that Jiang Zhihan and Alum both believe that there are too many uncertain factors in the domestic stock market, and the credibility of many companies' financial reports also needs to be put into a big question mark. From the perspective of technical analysis, the research history is too short and the signal noise in the short term is too high, which may lead to many technical indicators failure. From the perspective of fundamental analysis, the transparency and credibility of information and the efficiency of regulatory agencies are still very flawed. Since Jiang Zhihan began to draft the stock of a medical company for the Wang brothers, he has a deeper understanding of the domestic stock market and has more corresponding concerns.
Alum's father was a senior official in securities regulatory agencies. Of course, he had a deeper understanding of the inside story. In the investment branch under Jiang Zhihan, Alum is the first decision-maker and executor. He is responsible for the analysis of macroeconomic policies and the basic aspects of listed companies. Alum and Jiang Zhihan have the same judgment on the direction of the domestic stock market from the beginning, so they have the opportunity to come together to open up a career. After the last profit rebate, the two people still agreed on the domestic stock market. This includes several principles: one is to build a big market without concentrating funds to make stocks of a single company, and the other is to try to use internal information on the policy side to make the bottom and chase highs. Avoid excessive use of traditional technical analysis or basic analysis as a reference.
In addition to the domestic stock market, Alum and Jiang Zhihan both took a fancy to the long-term investment prospects of the US stock market. There are several factors here: First, the capital flow of the US stock market is far ahead in the global stock market, and it is the best in terms of liquidity of funds. Second, the transaction cost of the US stock market is relatively low, and with the emergence of low-priced brokers, the transaction cost is further compressed. From the perspective of operating costs, it is a relatively good choice in the global stock market. Third, although the big investors on Wall Street are still behind the manipulation of the stock market, the transparency of information and the reliability of financial reports are relatively much better than that of the domestic stock market.
Of course, this is the most important thing. From the perspective of long-term investment, the Standard & Poor's Persuasion Index, which represents the US stock market, has recently achieved a strong return in the year, while the Dow Jones Force Index, which has a longer history, has reached a near-field jump after World War II. Calculated at compound interest rates, the average annual return can be stable at 6%. This figure does not seem high, but in one aspect, it reflects that the US stock market can provide a stable investment return in the long term.
Of course, the average annual rate of return of 6% is not enough to attract Jiang Zhihan.
What attracted him was the prospect of investing in emerging songs proposed by alum. Unlike the traditional Dow Jones trading platform, Nasdaq uses electronic trading platforms, and most of the listed companies recruited are so-called emerging high-tech companies, such as communications, electronics, computers, medical devices, consulting, and financial services.
After Alum proposed the investment proposal, Jiang Zhihan instructed Ouyang to conduct relevant technical analysis and provide reference opinions from another perspective. In the current investment branch, the decision-making level is basically the three pillars, except Alum. Ouyang is responsible for technical analysis, while Jiang Zhihan is mainly in charge of overall strategic decision-making.
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The office of Civilized Software is divided into about ten small rooms by partitions. The largest one in the innermost part is the office of the boss Ouyang. In addition to being larger, a square table and a Changsha are added outside. There is no difference from the compartment of other employees. According to Ouyang, this is the so-called Zongcang equal, round table style he imitated the layout of the Guo-Gangfeng Technology Company, and created the so-called "Songcang equal, round table style"
Civilized Software's current business has two main directions. One is to create database applications, which are now a bit large and are the main source of the company's revenue. There are more than 20 employees below. They also hire more than 30 part-time college students and graduate students in other universities in Ningda and Ningzhou. The other direction is the research on stock trading platform opening and trading strategies, which is a direction that Jiang Zhihan entrusts Ouyang to specialize in.
Ouyang is indeed a kind of a popular boss of a high-tech enterprise. The drinks for entertaining alum and Jiang Zhihan are the warm water from the water dispenser. The three of them sat on half a circle of sand, holding copywriting in their hands. They are discussing the prospects for investing in Nasdaq.
Alum concluded: "From the perspective of the big economic cycle, after the United States wins a big war, it will always usher in a long bull market. The war is the best catalyst for stock market rise. The main reason why President Bush lost to newcomer Clinton when he won the Gulf War was that Clinton caught the issue of economy. But the recovery of the economy and the stock market has lagged behind, and from this point of view, Clinton took some advantage. Since the beginning of last year, the US stock market has begun to show a steady upward trend. Standard & Poor's persuasion rose by about percentage points last year, and so far this year, there has been a 7 percentage point increase.
Judging from the theoretical judgment of the economic cycle, I thought this was the beginning of a bull market, but there has not yet been a period of additional upward trend. Generally speaking, the bull market started with the fastest addition. But since the S&P helped reach a record high at the beginning of the year before, we can see a steady upward trend, but we cannot see a stage of additional upward trend. My judgment is that, this stage has not yet arrived, "just ahead of us."
After drinking a sip of water, the alum continued: "Of course, any judgment is subjective, and there is a probability of success. But compared to Standard & Poor's, I am more optimistic about the Nasdaq. This judgment is beyond the economic cycle theory. There are other arguments to support it. First, I am optimistic about the so-called emerging high-tech led by computers, the Internet, and biotechnology. From the perspective of the application prospects, I think they can completely change the way we work and live now. To quote a saying that only the sky is its limit. At this stage, such prospects have not been fully demonstrated, and have not yet reached the stage of addition, but I firmly believe that it is only a matter of time. You can roughly imagine that there is that
What a day. All office file processing and most communication exchanges can be paperless, all on a computer-centered platform. With the development of the Internet, Mr. Walcott predicted in a recent article that it will change the entire human lifestyle and completely subvert traditional media, and even our way of thinking about problems. There are two cores of the concepts, one is centerless and the other is completely interactive. From the first point, the Internet is essentially a centerless interconnection, just like King Arthur's roundtable meeting back then, there is no central point, layered but the core is not hierarchical. Every point on the Internet is essentially the same, just like the organizational form of our civilized software
Alum continues to preach, "the so-called interactive. That is to say, every action on the Internet is interacting with users. Unlike TV or newspapers, the audience is unidirectional acceptance. Although it can provide feedback, it is generally a passive and one-way information dissemination. The Internet is different. You can freely choose time, place, and content, which are things that traditional media cannot do. Of course, communication is another advantage. Emails can cross the world in a few seconds. How can ordinary emails do? From a broad background, we can implement all the things that traditional media do on the Internet. Not only that, it can also enter new fields and open up new applications. These are some of my basic views on the vision.
After looking at Ouyang and Jiang Zhihan, Alum said: "The second point is that the Clinton administration spares no effort in supporting emerging high-tech industries. From this point of view, I think what they are doing is indeed better than the Bush administration. The Information Highway Plan proposed by Vice President Gore is a clear signal that the US government will fully fund and support the exhibition of this industry. Although the United States claims to be a market economy, fiscal budget expenditure and national intervention are still the number one in the world. If they are determined to optimize resources to support this industry, it will be of great help to its medium- and long-term development prospects.
Chapter completed!