1378 [Face-to-face teaching opportunity]
After Xia Tian explained the matter, when everyone left, he kept Liang Botao again.
"Mr. Xia, do you have anything else to order?" Liang Botao asked in confusion.
"Botao, what do you think about the future development of the stock market?" Xia Tian smiled slightly.
"The stock market has been very prosperous in the past two years. The Hang Seng Index has risen to 3,900 points, and is about to break through the 4,000 points mark." Liang Botao said jokingly, "Although it is a little overheated, according to my estimate, the stock market should still rise."
The stock market is a barometer of politics and economy. Once political turmoil and economic recession, the stock market will inevitably perform unfavorably.
Three years ago, when the Chinese and British governments negotiated, the Hong Kong stock market was in a slump. Stock investors sold their stocks one after another, and investors who wanted to enter the market were deterred, resulting in the Hang Seng Index at that time only had 874 points and the annual trading volume was only 37 billion Hong Kong dollars.
However, with the announcement of the Sino-British joint statement in 1984, Hong Kong's future was set, citizens' confidence gradually recovered, the economy gradually improved, and at the same time, the stock market began to gradually recover.
By this year (1987), the Hang Seng Index in the Hong Kong stock market has climbed to 3,900 points, with an annual trading volume of up to 3,714 billion Hong Kong dollars, ten times that of three years ago.
Hong Kong has been politically stable in recent years, and its economy has also been developing rapidly. This can be seen from the high housing prices today. Therefore, Liang Botao is optimistic about the development of the stock market and thinks that it should be able to break through the 4,000-point mark.
After listening to Liang Botao's analysis, Xia Tian smiled slightly and refused to comment.
"Why, Mr. Xia, do you have different opinions?" Liang Botao couldn't help asking in confusion when he saw this.
"Botao, I think you missed one." Xia Tian said with a smile.
"No way?! I have considered politics and economy." Liang Botao blinked, not understanding what he hadn't considered.
"Hong Kong is a free trade port, and its stock market fluctuations are greatly affected by the international market. Once the international stock market turmoil occurs, the Hong Kong stock market will also be affected." Xia Tian reminded.
"Ah, by the way, Mr. Xia, you reminded me that I forgot this. I am so ashamed!" Liang Botao said ashamed.
Fortunately, I still claim to be an investment expert and a financial genius, but I actually ignore this common sense issue and rely on the boss to remind me. It's really embarrassing.
"Don't be sad. You are a wise man who has a thousand thoughts, and you will lose one thing; I am a fool who has a thousand thoughts, and you will gain one thing." Xia Tian smiled slightly.
"Don't praise me like that. Compared to you, I am a fool." Liang Botao said awkwardly.
"Then what do you think is the current situation in the international stock market?" Xia Tian asked again.
As far as he knows, the stock market crash in 1987 began with the collapse of the US stock market, and the disaster spread rapidly around the world. Stock markets in London, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Frankfurt, Singapore, Australia and other places plummeted.
Haine's law points out that every serious accident has signs. Therefore, such a large-scale stock market crash will definitely have signs before it breaks out.
So he wanted to ask Liang Botao first if there were any abnormalities in the international stock market recently. If so, it would be better to use this as an excuse to let him take precautions.
"The US stock market has experienced several major fluctuations since August. There is no problem with other stock markets and is thriving." Liang Botao reported, "Why, Mr. Xia, do you think there will be any abnormal movements in the international stock market recently?"
When Xia Tian heard that there was indeed something unusual in the US stock market, he was immediately delighted, and then nodded, "When I went to Japan this time, I met Michelle. She told me that there has been turmoil in the United States recently, and some experts think this is likely to be a precursor to the stock market crash, so I reminded me to pay attention."
Regarding the stock market crash, he couldn't tell Liang Botao directly, saying that he would definitely have a big stock market crash in the near future. In that case, he would become a god and would have to be tied up to slice and study it. So he could only use Michelle's name, but Liang Botao would not go to verify with her anyway.
"Stock stock market crash?!" Liang Botao was startled and frowned, "Mr. Xia, this is a bit alarmist. It's just a few small fluctuations, so how can you talk about the precursor of the stock market crash? I don't think you have to worry too much. The US economy has indeed been sluggish in recent years, but it's too serious when it comes to stock market crashes."
Since the collapse of the US dollar-centered Braisendon system in 1975, it has indeed fallen into trouble. The inflation rate has risen and the unemployment rate has risen. Coupled with the arms race with the Soviet Union, the South Vietnam War, etc., the US fiscal deficit has risen year by year.
With the rise of Europe and Japan after the war, the US manufacturing industry was also seriously impacted, causing its foreign trade deficit to rise year by year.
That's why the United States signed a square agreement with Britain, France, Germany and Japan, requiring the five countries to jointly sell the US dollar in the foreign exchange market, depreciating the US dollar and benefiting US exports. It also forces the Japanese yen and Mark to appreciate significantly, curbing the exports of Germany and Japan. In order to alleviate the US fiscal crisis.
At the same time, relax control over the financial market and take tax cuts on stock investment to stimulate the stock market and boost people's confidence in investment.
With so much good news, Liang Botao really doesn't believe that the US stock market will collapse.
"Whether it's alarmist or worrying about it, we have made a lot of money in the stock market now, so it's better to take risks without any risk. In this way, you can release all the stocks that have appreciated by more than 10%. Wenhe Group's stocks will be sold for another 10%." Xia Tian thought for a while.
He still has 30% of the stocks of Jiuwen and the Group. At the same time, Liang Botao has made a lot of investments in the stock market, bought a lot of blue-chip stocks and potential stocks.
"Mr. Xia, are you overreacting?" Liang Botao said reluctantly when he saw him say this.
The stock market is obviously fine, but in summer, it is a tide. It makes him feel a bit exaggerated.
"Be careful to sail for a thousand years, Botao, be careful not to make any big mistakes. I would rather make less money than lose money." Xia Tian smiled, "Anyway, I have decided, just do it."
"Okay." Liang Botao saw that he said so, so he had to nod, "But Mr. Xia, after all the selling, when will we return to the stock market?"
"You wait for my signal. We are just a strategic retreat this time and will definitely make a comeback in the future." Xia Tian said with a smile, "You collect information on listed companies in the stock market. I hope that once a stock market crash occurs, we can sweep the Hong Kong stock market."
"Uh" Liang Botao couldn't help but feel speechless when he heard him so excitedly.
Chapter completed!