550 The Crisis of Capitalism II
"No, we have to continue to reduce our holdings of official stocks!" Chang Ruiqing looked at the two old men who had made foreign wealth and were flirting with gritted teeth and shouted: "Not only do we need to sell official stocks, but also the commons in Shanghai should be sold faster! We will cash out another 5 billion before the Spring Festival next year!"
"Yaoru, why do you always have to deal with the stock market and the real estate market? The economy has its own rules, and government intervention cannot solve the problem." Old Man Pan was not worried about his investment at all because of Chang Ruiqing's intervention, and even shook his head and talked about the economic laws.
"Mr. Pan, don't look at the overflow of money now. Maybe when the crisis comes, the financial market collapses, the money will immediately evaporate without a trace!" Chang Ruiqing said this, but he had no idea.
To be honest, China's financial supervision is now the strictest in the world (excluding several Soviet countries). Not only are the funds of banks and insurance companies prohibited from entering the stock market, securities companies' customer margins are handed over to bank custody and prohibited from misappropriation, and even stock mortgage loans were stopped at the end of September. All public and government-controlled enterprises have also been strictly ordered to prohibit investment in the stock market. The government and the Iron Blood Comrade Association have continued to work together to reduce their holdings and suppress the market. The speed of new stock issuance and refinancing of listed companies has also increased significantly. From January 1929 to the present, the total amount of funds raised through public and non-public offerings completed through Shanghai joint transactions has exceeded the 5 billion yuan mark.
But the stock market still goes on its own and keeps rising... There was even a miracle that the government insisted on public stocks once, and the stock market rose sharply! It surprised Chang Ruiqing, a person who came through his previous life.
"Yaoru, why do you always talk about crisis?" Pan Yucheng laughed and said, "Now Americans, British, and French people are not worried about any crisis, and even Trotsky doesn't say any capitalist crisis. You are the only one who is worrying about nothing. Do you know? US President Hoover has said that 'peace and prosperity will become the symbol of this era', and this prosperity will last for a long time."
It would be strange if it lasts for a long time! Chang Ruiqing sneered in his heart. In late November 1929, the US Wall Street stock market collapsed for more than a month! I don’t know what happened in this time and space, but I still survived until now, but I don’t think it will continue to support it. Maybe it will collapse next month! I just don’t know who is speculating on the Chinese stock market? Whose money is losing in the end?
While the father-in-law and son-in-law were talking about stocks, another customer came to the Prime Minister's residence. The people came were Zhang Gongquan, general manager of the Bank of China, and Kong Xiangxi, minister of the Ministry of Heavy Industry. The two came together. Today, a large fertilizer manufacturer under the Ministry of Heavy Industry was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Kong Xiangxi went to beat the gong. After beat the gong, he invited Zhang Gongquan from Shanghai to Chang Ruiqing to take care of financial issues.
"You two are here just in time. Please sit down, please sit down."
When the two of them sat down, Chang Ruiqing raised his doubts. Where did Shanghai’s money come from? Why did it seem like it was endless?
Zhang Gongquan seemed to have been prepared for a long time. He opened a briefcase he carried with him, took out a stack of documents and handed it to Chang Ruiqing: "This is a statistical table of funds remittances in Shanghai Free City since May."
Since May, funds have flowed from Europe, America, Southeast Asia and mainland China to Shanghai. However, the biggest source is Europe and the United States, with at least 2 billion US dollars in just half a year! No wonder I have reduced my holdings of 5 billion yuan in stocks, and the funds in the market are still so abundant. The 2 billion US dollars alone can be exchanged for 8 billion Chinese yuan!
Chang Ruiqing suddenly asked: "There is US$2 billion inflow, why didn't it react so much in foreign exchange reserves?"
Zhang Gongquan said: "The system of Shanghai's free market has always been different from the mainland. It allows private foreign exchange to be held and freely traded foreign exchange. The exchange rate is also floating. In the past, foreign exchange flowing into Shanghai's free market was also bought by major banks and held by themselves. If the central bank wants to buy foreign exchange from the free market, it can only buy and sell through the market.
However, the situation this year is a bit special. On the one hand, a large amount of Huayuan funds flowed into Shanghai from the mainland, causing the Huayuan positions of major banks to be quite loose. On the other hand, a large amount of foreign exchange inflows have suppressed the foreign exchange price in the Shanghai market. Now the foreign exchange market price is almost the same as the official price. Therefore, major banks are willing to hold more foreign exchange. They all estimate that once the funds withdraw from Shanghai, the Huayuan exchange rate will definitely fall, and you will make a big profit by holding foreign exchange at that time.
At the same time, a large amount of foreign direct investment inflows in the mainland has caused a surge in the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, so the enthusiasm of the central bank to buy foreign exchange has also plummeted."
Chang Ruiqing scratched his head and showed a wry smile. His financial knowledge was very limited, but he even developed a dual-track exchange system of exchange rates 10 years ago. On the one hand, the floating exchange rates and the free exchange rate of the five free markets; on the other hand, the foreign exchange control and fixed exchange rates except the five free markets. Therefore, in China, there have always been two Chinese yuan exchange rates, usually with low official exchange rates and high free market rates. The difference between the two can often reach more than 20. In order to control foreign exchange more, the central bank often uses market prices.
Buy on the free market forex trading market. This free market plus foreign exchange dual-track system has always had more benefits than disadvantages to the Chinese economy. Not to mention anything else, but the taxes paid by the five major free markets account for more than 30 of the total fiscal revenue of the central government. Moreover, the central government has also obtained a large amount of additional revenue by selling commons and issuing public shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Taking this year as an example, the central government has obtained a huge revenue of more than 4 billion yuan through these two projects, which is almost equal to the total fiscal revenue of the entire federal government in 1929!
However, negative effects are inevitable. For example, there are signs of impact from international hot money! Just floating on the water, Zhang Gongquan and others have found 2 billion US dollars. Including the funds deployed in advance, the total amount of funds may be more than 3 billion US dollars. Considering the current stock market increase, the profits of this hot money may be quite amazing. If they are allowed to return from Shanghai with a full load, I am afraid that the entire Chinese economy will be used as wool cuts!
When Chang Ruiqing said his concerns to Zhang Gongquan, the big banker showed a face as a profiteer. He shook his head and smiled: "Prime Minister, you are really a little worried. How can our wool be so easy to cut? After all, Shanghai is our own territory. If it was 10 years ago, those foreign merchants had the support of the great military forces in Shanghai. Now they have a lot of money and are just merchants. Since ancient times, there have been famous sayings that merchants do not fight with officials. How can they beat the Prime Minister?"
"Really?" Chang Ruiqing was still not very calm and asked: "Mr. Public Power, if you have any tricks, just tell me quickly! I think this economic crisis will probably be a great depression that lasts for many years. If we want to overcome the difficulties, we must find a way to reserve enough foreign exchange funds!"
Chang Ruiqing also knew that although the Shanghai Stock Exchange, a financial casino, is not as good as New York and London, is no longer comparable to the Paris Stock Exchange. It is even larger than the Frankfurt stock market under the bayonet of more than one million Red Army bayonets. It is not an exaggeration to say that it is a treasure pot. If you smash this treasure pot in order not to allow international hot money to make hundreds of millions or billions of dollars in profits, it is indeed not worth the loss.
But is the next era of playing finance and stocks? If history still has a little inertia, the next one will be the Great Depression and the World War! No matter how famous the brand of the Shanghai United Exchange is and how good the reputation is, it will have to be down for more than ten years. If you can win World War II, there will be a chance of prosperity again. Otherwise, you will be waiting to be "liberated" by the Soviet Red Army. 9 Want to trade stocks? All of them are reactionary capitalists!
However, these principles cannot be told to Pan Yucheng, Kong Xiangxi, Zhang Gongquan and others. If they say it, they will not believe it. They should just act like a dictator. Thinking of this, Chang Ruiqing's face was already gloomy and said coldly: "I have decided to reduce my holdings of official stocks and offer commons from tomorrow. I will cash out another 5 billion before the Spring Festival next year. If the temperature of the stock market and real estate cannot drop, after the Spring Festival, the free market will also implement foreign exchange controls!" He paused and looked at Zhang Gongquan and said: "Public Quan, Comrade Tiexue and I personally hold all the company stocks that will be polished this year!"
"Prime Minister..." Zhang Gongquan knew that once Chang Ruiqing made up his mind, he had no way to persuade him to come back. He sighed and nodded and said, "I understand. The only stocks entrusted by the Tiexue Comrades Association in Bank of China are now only China Heavy Industry, China Petroleum and Bank of China. The market price is about one billion. Prime Minister. The stocks you entrusted by the Bank of China are all 80 constituent stocks, with a market value of more than 30 million. There are also wife, second wife and several wife Ru..."
Chang Ruiqing waved his hand and said, "It's just throw away the land of Comrades and me in Shanghai. Then he left the Changjia Garden in one place, and then exchanged all the money for US dollars and deposited it into the Bank of China account. Oh, notify the second master of this news."
"I know." Zhang Gongquan calculated silently in his mind that after this round of big selling, the central government, the Iron Blood Comrades Association and the Chang family would cash out at least 6 billion yuan! In addition, the big investors who received the news and reduced their holdings were expected to be at least 10 billion yuan in the year. It would be a damn thing if the stock market and real estate market did not cool down again! Maybe those foreign investment markets would also sell together, and there would be no way to escape the adjustment. But that would be fine, so that Chang Ruiqing would not deprive the freedom of the free market. That would be to kill five hens that could lay golden eggs in one breath.
...
December 26, 1929.
"Mr. Morgan, there seems to be some problems in Shanghai. The Chinese government and the Iron Blood Comrades are desperately selling, and together with the four major consortiums in China (Jiangxi, Nanyang, Beiyang, and He tribes) all followed suit and sold... God. In December alone, they had reduced their holdings of more than 6 billion yuan in stocks. It seems that it is difficult for us to make a fortune in our investment in China."
At 23 Wall Street in New York, the base camp of the Morgan Consortium, three of the richest and most powerful men in the United States are gathered in an office decorated with various exquisite works of art. They are John Pierpont Morgan Jr., John Davidson Rockefeller Jr., and U.S. Treasury Secretary Andrew Mellon.
The person who spoke was John Davidson Rockefeller, the only son and heir of John Rockefeller, the founder of Rockefeller Consortium, and the father of the five Rockefeller brothers who were later famous. He is 55 years old this year. Although his father is still alive, the old man is not very interested in business now. He is currently working hard to realize one of his two ideals in life - living to 100 years old. So Rockefeller took over the family's business and became the head of the Rockefeller Consortium. Like several other large consortiums in the United States, of course, the Rockefeller Consortium
This is the driving force behind this round of bull markets in the US and world stock markets, including the current surge in the Chinese stock market, which is actually caused by the huge amount of funds from the large banks they control. In this era, countries around the world generally lax the supervision of large companies and financial industries. In the United States, banks, insurance, securities, trust and other industries are all mixed operations, and there is no "firewall" within it. As long as the heads of these consortiums who manipulate large banks are willing, they can use the continuous funds in the bank to speculate on stocks, futures, real estate or anything they want to speculate on.
Of course, like any speculation on financial assets in the past and the future, these big speculators follow the basic principle of buying low prices to lock chips and expend high prices to recover funds. Whether in New York, London, Paris, Frankfurt or Shanghai, the same operation method is the same. However, with strong capital and clever operating methods, you still cannot play such a transaction.
Just as Zhang Gongquan told Chang Ruiqing, businessmen do not fight with officials. No matter how powerful international capital is, they are still merchants. The real reason why they can make trouble in this era and later generations is not that they have enough money and how clever the way to play financial games is, but because they have the highest power of the US government, the capitalist world!
Chapter completed!