Chapter Dangers and Opportunities
The crisis is that there is opportunity in danger. Yuxi Timuer's unexpected attempt did cause a lot of trouble for Zhao Bing. He did not want to see the ending of a death-torn battle, so he had to use a stronger net tool. With the troops that Jiangnan was about to be conquered, he was not fully sure, and redeployment took time. It was the most convenient and realistic to draw troops from the army attacking Yangzhou.
Of course, it is not as easy to draw troops from Yangzhou as Zhao Bing said. They are also facing enemies with strong desire to survive. Even if they defeat them, they will annihilate one thousand enemies and lose 800 themselves. If they have to break through with all their strength, they will definitely be able to keep them. In the end, they may be a pot of raw rice.
In addition, the Mongolian Yuan Dynasty has always paid attention to intelligence work. Yuxi Timur must also know what the outcome will be after his failure to transit the south. He will inevitably strengthen the collection of intelligence. If his intention to transfer troops back to aid was discovered by him, not only would the plan to lure the enemy into depth completely failed, but he believed that he would definitely use it and make a quick decision to change the plan and counterattack Yangzhou. After all, the temptation of being able to capture an emperor alive is no less than the temptation of capturing the enemy's capital, and it is more meaningful.
On the contrary, since Yuxi Timur knew the consequences of the failure of the two capitals, Wanhu Mansions, south of the Yellow River, the failure of the southward invasion, who dared to conclude that this was not a trap he laid out. The temptation was too great, and no one wanted to jump down, so Zhao Bing had to be cautious. He could not believe it even if he had crossed the Yangtze River. Faced with such a big pie, even if there was only one-tenth of the chance, he believed that Wang Yinglin could see it, and others would definitely see it. He also did not want to let it go.
Faced with such a "double kill" situation, it depends on who is the best performer and who can trick him into a trap. This is the saying that the decisive victory is outside the battlefield. Therefore, even though Zhao Bing discovered the fighter opportunity, he did not tell the generals and stopped Wang Yinglin from revealing information to the outside world. It is not that he does not believe it, but that the intelligence work is all "you have me and I have you". Once it is leaked, it will be an irreversible ending, so this intention must be controlled within a very small range.
In the current era when there are no satellites and no aircraft, it is relatively easy to mobilize large troops, but it is only relative. Zhao Bing's plan is to form a large network with Changzhou, Wuxi, Pingjiang and Kunshan as support points, and the center of the network is Changshu. Tens of thousands of troops in the besieged city quietly, leaving no traces under the enemy's noses, and set out to the battlefield. It not only concerns the victory or defeat of the ambush Yuxi Timur's army, but also the safety of the remaining troops in the besieged city.
When Zhao Bing was considering how to arrange troops, he had to think about the next plan to recover the two Huai areas, and this lack was as simple as fighting. In fact, occupying a region through combat is only the first step, and occupying and consolidating is only the second part. Long-term possession and effective governance can be considered as taking over this land and population.
Therefore, regaining a new land is not only something that can be accomplished by the army, but also a need to mobilize the strength of the entire country. It not only considers the organizational and execution capabilities of a government, but also tests the size of a country's financial reserves, material dispatch, and population mobilization capabilities. This requires the active cooperation and resolute implementation of various departments of the court.
The first thing to solve is the problem of insufficient troops. Although the Song Dynasty currently has 300,000 main imperial guards and more than 100,000 garrisons stationed in various prefectures, it seems that there are many, but not only do they have to keep troops to defend the capital, but also use troops against Bashu and Yunnan. They also have to station heavy troops along the border towns to prevent the enemy from attacking the border and suppressing rebellion. Under normal circumstances, it is quite difficult to draw 60% of the troops to participate in the war.
If we only fight a battle that aims to destroy the enemy's economic foundation and eliminate living forces and is plundering, Zhao Bing thought that these forces were enough. Because this kind of fast-forward and retreating battle does not require occupying local territory, does not need to consider the issue of post-war reconstruction, and can even carry only a small amount of baggage to plunder the opponent's materials to maintain the war.
However, it is difficult to recover the Lianghuai with more than 200,000 troops. Indeed, Zhao Bing believes that with these troops, which have been rigorously trained, equipped with all firearms, and officers at all levels, can advance rapidly in the Lianghuai area where the troops are empty. However, the purpose of launching this battle is not to harass and destruction, but to recover lost territory and rule for a long time.
Then these forces have to undertake the main combat tasks and rebuild the defense line to block the enemy's counterattack. However, they have to shoulder the task of clearing out the remaining enemies and assisting in establishing the regime and maintaining local public security. Especially in the early stages of the war, the result of both sides taking into account is to lose one another. Therefore, after the army recovers the lost territories, someone must take on the task of clearing out the remaining enemies and maintaining public security. This requires expanding the army and mobilizing more troops to participate in the war.
When it comes to rapid expansion of the army, many people may think of the word "all people are soldiers", especially in ancient times. For example, in those classical countries, all men were allowed to start training from a young age and serve in the military. For example, the fighting nation Spartans, and during the Battle of Changping in the Warring States Period, the Qin State recruited males over fifteen years old, etc. But Zhao Bing, who once had this idea, would tell you that things are not that simple, because "all people are soldiers", but it is impossible for all people to join the army.
Let’s talk about Sparta first. According to contemporary research, the Spartans had a population of 8,000 at the highest, with a population of less than 40,000. In addition to the Spartan population, there were also Hilo people who were used as slaves in the country. According to records, the number of Hilo people was far greater than that of the Spartans, about 150,000. In addition, there are other free people engaged in industry and commerce who paid taxes to Sparta.
It is generally believed that the total population of Sparta is about 250,000, while the Spartans account for less than one-eighth, and there are even fewer Spartan professional soldiers who are purely fully proprietor. According to Zhao Bing's calculations, the size of about 10,000 people is already the limit of the Spartan army. It is not difficult to understand that in the Battle of Hot Spring Pass, facing hundreds of thousands of Persian troops, only 300 Spartan warriors participated in the war.
During the Battle of Changping, the only male population of Qin was recruited over 15 years old was Henei County, not the entire Qin State. The price of this extreme mobilization of Qin State was the title of the whole county. Although the Qin people included men over 17 years old as military citizenship, they did not say that they directly joined the army. According to records, "In all three towns, there were thousands of soldiers in one town, seven hundred people in one town, and five hundred people in one town." "In all counties, there were more than five hundred towns, more than three towns, more than ten thousand towns, and more than four towns."
Therefore, the population of the three townships was between 5,000 and 10,000 households. It can be seen that in the Qin Dynasty, where the mobilization rate was extremely high, the population of 5,000 to 10,000 households was only drawn to join the army. The Qin law also stipulated that if one household had two males, it could not serve at the same time to avoid affecting agricultural production and thus reduce the cost of recruitment as much as possible. Moreover, these people were not completely out of production. After one year, they would be demobilized and returned to farmers or recruited for the family and become "garrison soldiers" or "guardians".
It means that the full-time Qin soldiers from the previous or Suwei only accounted for about half of the local soldiers recruited. Based on the previous 5,000 to 10,000 households, there were only about a thousand people who were truly full-time. In the Qin Dynasty, the number of soldiers and civilians was 1 to 25 or 1 to 50. Therefore, although the Qin people were warlike, they did not really go to battle together.
Zhao Bing saw from this that the ancient model of the whole people being soldiers was essentially to ensure that a small number of full-time soldiers and a large number of non-time reserve soldiers were provided. The non-time soldiers were basically trained locally during the slack farming period. This system ensured that a large number of male population had military qualities, that is, "all soldiers". Corresponding to this is a sentence in "The Art of War": "Anyone who set up a 100,000 troops to fight a thousand miles, the people's expenses and the public's service cost a thousand gold a day. Those who are in a state of chaos and are in a lax way and cannot handle affairs will need 700,000 families to go to war." In other words, a 100,000 army requires 700,000 families to go to war. According to the calculation of the five family, the ratio of soldiers and civilians in the Spring and Autumn Period was one to thirty-five.
Let’s talk about the Sui and Tang Dynasties. Emperor Yang of Sui conquered Goguryeo. According to historians, the real force was 700,000, while the number of logistics personnel was doubled, "they were twice as much as the ones were given." At that time, there were 8.9 million households and more than 46 million people. This thousand-mile expedition with a ratio of 10 to 20 people directly led to the exhaustion of national strength and the Sui Empire collapsed rapidly.
The Tang Dynasty was one of the prosperous times in Chinese history. The system of government troops was implemented, with a total of 600,000 people, and the proportion of soldiers and civilians was about one to twenty-five. However, most government soldiers were usually mainly engaged in farming, and there were not many front-line soldiers during the slack farming period. After entering the prosperous Tang Dynasty, there were 9.1 million households, including the actual population of hidden households, but the total strength of the Tang Dynasty was only 570,000, and the ratio of soldiers and civilians was maintained at about one to seventy-five.
Therefore, in the agricultural society, the kind of "all people are soldiers" that people generally think is impossible to achieve. The slack training in the classical military era, the general conscription system for the recruitment of service, and the proportion of the number of temporary first-line soldiers who are temporarily out of stock accounts for the population, and it is difficult to exceed one to twenty-five under extreme circumstances. As for the fully out of stock, according to modern society, the proportion of soldiers and civilians is the limit, and the country has a heavy burden, and it is even difficult to persist for a long time.
As for this dynasty, which is famous for its professional army system and redundant soldiers, the total number of troops exceeded one million, and scholars generally believe that it is about one million. It is quite difficult for this million people to raise one million full-time soldiers. Nearly one million full-time troops account for more than half of the fiscal expenditure and 70% of the fiscal revenue, but few people are truly combat-effective. Many soldiers are treated extremely poorly, resulting in the success of fleeing and the serious salary of officers. This is also the reason why Zhao Bing tried his best to make money but did not dare to blindly expand the army, and was afraid of repeating the same mistakes.
Correspondingly, the enemies of the Northern Song Dynasty, such as the Western Xia population, had a population of more than 3 million. Among the 500,000 troops, the majority of people who usually herd sheep and farmed were usually the most. The real fully armed soldiers were at best 30,000 to 40,000, and the proportion was 1 to 35. This was also the reason why they could not support the war for a long time. Once they were forced, they demanded and surrendered.
As for the military household system implemented by the Mongolian Yuan, because history has been changed, Zhao Bing cannot compare it with the numbers from later generations. However, the Ming Dynasty later basically copied the military household system of the Mongolian Yuan. In the early Ming Dynasty, based on the population of about 60 million, the total military volume reached 2 million. According to the edict in February of the 25th year of Hongwu: "Ship the soldiers of the guards in the world will be ordered to plant seven out of ten and three out of ten cities from now on, and to do their best to cultivate and provide enough military food." It shows that among the two million troops, there are 600,000 full-time soldiers, and the proportion of soldiers and civilians is actually one to one hundred.
Zhao Bing estimated that although the population of the Mongolian Yuan has decreased significantly after he controlled Jiangnan, the proportion should be reduced compared with that. Not only did they have to support the army, but they also had to pay taxes to the country, which made the burden heavier. This was also the reason for the Mongolian Yuan army to have to draw more people to participate in the settlement. The consequence was a significant decline in combat effectiveness and a sluggish morale.
The collapse of the Ming Dynasty military households system, which inherited its system, was also caused by the overwhelming military households and frequent escapes, which forced the generals to maintain combat effectiveness by raising a few personal soldiers. In fact, in ancient times, when productivity was low, it was difficult to support a million troops at a ratio of one to one hundred. Under normal circumstances, the proportion should be increased.
After the migration of the south, the population of the Song Dynasty was later inferred that the highest peak was nearly 60 million. In the long-term war state, the population loss was also very serious. After southern Mongolia occupied Jiangnan, the population loss was not large due to policy changes. However, a large number of surrendered troops were transferred from Jiangnan and ordered all the craftsmen in Jiangnan. Since then, the population has been repeatedly recruited to migrate northward. In addition, the earlier massacres by the Mongolian Yuan in the Sichuan and Shu area, the population decline was still very serious.
After Zhao Bing recovered Jiangnan, he conducted statistics on the population. With the assistance of modern social scientific and technological means, he could not accurately count the population, let alone in ancient times, the fugitives in the war, the unsubmissive tribes and wealthy families who were not obeying the laws of the king, and the hidden population of the wealthy families could not be calculated. The registered population was more than 30 million based on the fish scale list reported from various places, which is also the base of population that can be paid taxes to the court and can be collected.
However, in ancient times, there was also an uneven population distribution. Most of the population was concentrated in fertile land along the river and lakeside areas and the southeastern areas with developed trade. Among them, the largest population in Jiangdong, with nearly 20 million people, which was also a key area for regaining the rural soldiers and husband service in Lianghuai. This base seems to be very large, but more than half of the elderly, weak women and children, and nearly half of the elderly, not only have to undertake agricultural production, but also serve military service, corvee service and handicraft production.
Zhao Bing was not good at these, so he sent Wang Yinglin back to Beijing to discuss with the important officials and took out an accurate available number so as to calculate how many Ding Zhuang would not affect domestic production. He could not lose his fundamentals because he was happy for a while...
Chapter completed!