Chapter 637 Conspiracy
Liu Yi found a Chinese computer for Tian Dongliang. He had no place to put it, so he installed it on the railings of the corridor on the second floor, allowing him to type.
The employees in the Pan Asia Fund office were already busy. After a few minutes, they seemed to have forgotten Tian Dongliang and regarded him as an ordinary decoration in the corridor.
And in just a few minutes, the violent fluctuations in oil prices have made countless people feel uneasy.
Some people think that oil prices will plummet, some people think that $15 is seriously deviating from the value of crude oil, and most traders are ready to choose sides.
It is definitely abnormal to drop from $18 to $15 in an instant. Such an opportunity cannot be encountered once every one or two years. Those who are qualified to participate in crude oil futures trading will not escape at this time.
Either bet too much or bet too little, whether it is an independent businessman or a financial institution in the exchange, they will make a choice. Even if the investment is not much, they may gain rich returns through this bet. Except for some institutions that specialize in hedging, most people are ready to move.
Listening to the people's "huffing" sounds, Tian Dongliang seemed to be a tractor full of power, and in a short time, he typed thousands of words.
The scene in front of you is fascinating to anyone in the financial industry.
Perhaps, even people in the financial industry will be fascinated by the flowing Jinhe.
Apart from crude oil futures exchanges, except for this special time, it is rare to see such a turbulent Jinhe River.
Tian Dongliang only felt that what he breathed in his nose, what he heard in his ears, and what he saw in his eyes were thick black edges, and bright yellow.
"$15.12." In the office behind him, there was a man in Mandarin and shouting loudly.
"Xiao Liu, go and notify Mr. Su and everyone else will continue." Qi Xiao also came out of the inner room.
Tian Dongliang stroked the keyboard, saved the document, looked up at the electronic screen, and it turned out that the crude oil contract in October had fallen to $15.12 first. And there was a downward trend.
"It fell so quickly, so strange." Tian Dongliang muttered, and then saw Su Cheng climbing upstairs.
"Dong Su." Tian Dongliang immediately got up and said hello. He had too many questions to ask.
Su Cheng glanced at the computer curiously, nodded and said, "It's just right, it's time for counterattack, you can come in and listen."
"Counterattack?" Tian Dongliang was stunned.
"I've been in a stalemate for so long at $16. Of course it's a counterattack." Su Cheng patted Tian Dongliang on the shoulder and let him enter the office in front.
Tian Dongliang was amused and crying. He had seen too many people in the financial industry, most of whom were confident, but those with the model of Sucheng were still extremely rare.
Perhaps, it’s just because he is not an insider in the financial industry.
Tian Dongliang saw Qi Xiao's alert gaze and Su Cheng's indifferent expression, and suddenly had a kind of understanding.
From beginning to end, Sucheng seemed to have not used any advanced financial means.
At most, it means that it has reserved a lot of funds and is more courageous than ordinary people.
The reason why Sucheng can win the current situation depends on his understanding of the oil market itself and his understanding of the oil market.
As a banker, Tian Dongliang cannot be said to like Su Cheng's method of manipulating finance, but he has to admit that after this battle, Dahua Industrial is already qualified to choose its own financial method.
Perhaps, for Sucheng, the stalemate is failure.
Tian Dongliang thought involuntarily.
Opposite him, Qi Xiao quickly explained the situation and said alertly: "$15 should be a high-voltage line. If you lower it, you will probably have many oil spot merchants to support it. If the refinery delivers crude oil at a price of $15, it will have a lot of profit. If this continues, the fuel futures price will also be affected."
Tian Dongliang turned his head to look at Sucheng. The current fuel futures price is still based on US$18. In other words, fuel suppliers are the resistance to the decline of fuel. At this price to collect oil is not under any pressure for fuel suppliers.
Unless crude oil prices can drop for a long time.
"Dr. Su..." Qi Xiao shouted again. He had wanted to retreat long ago. In this round, Pan Asia Fund made too much profit, but only by putting the money in order to celebrate it.
Su Cheng touched his chin, but asked with a smile: "Manager Tian, if you were asked to make a decision, which side would you choose?"
Tian Dongliang was stunned, and then said without hesitation: "I choose many parties, and it is impossible for crude oil to keep falling. The price of $15 is too much."
"It's indeed a bit too much." Su Cheng nodded in agreement.
"Then will we withdraw?" Qi Xiao showed joy.
"We continue to short." Su Cheng's answer was completely opposite, saying: "Why can't crude oil prices fall?"
Qi Xiao didn't understand what Su Cheng meant, and saw that he was serious, he frowned and said, "The price of crude oil is closely related to the operation of the world economy. If you suppress the price of crude oil at once, how could this be something we can do? Americans can't do it either."
"It is impossible to suppress it for a long time. It is no problem for a few days. Super oil fields like Aqijiu are not seen every day." Su Cheng was full of confidence.
Qi Xiao's eyebrows were about to turn into fried eggs and said softly: "The negative news in Aqijiu oil field has been consumed almost all, which can be seen from the confrontation of around $16. Now, the market is digesting OPEC's news. I think that even if the oil price falls below $15, it will rebound soon. It's just a news that does not reduce production and cannot allow a fundamental change in supply."
"What if the supply changes fundamentally?" Su Cheng asked back.
"How could it be?"
"OPEC will not actively reduce production in the short term. The oil fields in Azerbaijan are new oil fields, and Kazakhstan also has new oil fields output. In addition, the expected production capacity of the Azijiu oil field is extremely high. OPEC's current production capacity remains unchanged, which means that crude oil supply increases."
Qi Xiao's brows did not dissipate, and he lowered his voice: "Dong Su. The supply of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil increases every day, and the market can easily consume it."
"how long?"
"What?"
"How many days will the market take to balance the supply of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil?"
"About... how many days?"
"It will take at least three or four days." Sucheng itself has oil refineries and chemical plants. If the Haicang base under Dahua has sufficient crude oil supply and overtime work, it will increase production by 20% in just a few days. In other words, in areas where the market competition is not particularly sufficient, refineries, chemical plants and thermal power plants with surplus will once the decision to increase production is made, it will only take a few days to balance the newly supplied crude oil.
However, for industrial production, it is only a few days, but for financial companies, the feeling is completely different.
Here, living a day is like a year is not an adjective, but a real word.
Qi Xiao said carefully: "But we can't short and achieve market balance. If we don't leave now, we may be suppressed by others at that time."
"What if there is a new supply in the market then?"
"New supply..." Qi Xiao dared not ask. This information had already made him feel the strong smell of conspiracy.
The crude oil market is a market with very little elasticity. Generally speaking, a 3% fluctuation in production capacity will cause fundamental changes in supply, which is completely different from other commodities.
On the one hand, it is because of the difficulty of storage of crude oil. A 3% production capacity means 2 million barrels of crude oil per day, which is almost equivalent to the full storage capacity of a local branch of PetroChina. Under normal operation, even a country cannot store crude oil for a few days. Even in a country like the United States, which spends money like soil, it dares not imagine using crude oil reserves to solve the energy crisis.
On the other hand, the supply and demand of the global crude oil market are actually relatively rigid, which is very similar to electricity. How much crude oil you produce, you have to sell as much crude oil, and you cannot be more or less. The sudden reduction in crude oil supply will naturally cause a headache for crude oil consumption factories, but the sudden increase in crude oil supply is also difficult for crude oil consumption factories to solve.
Therefore, crude oil exchanges always respond to future crude oil supply and demand conditions.
Generally speaking, dozens of cents are a big wave.
Sucheng's successive prophecy negative elements were shuddered by the difficulties that created them and hidden them.
The water here is too deep.
However, from the perspective of Sucheng, it is difficult to make him play with the crude oil futures exchange, but it is not that difficult to increase the supply of crude oil.
Especially the Pan-Asian Fund's composition includes seven large crude oil producers. It would be easier to increase the output of hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil worldwide.
The 1990s was an era of excessive crude oil. The crude oil consumption in developed countries continued steadily. Emerging economies such as the Four Asian Tigers and the BRICS countries have not yet risen. Not to mention the lack of many hungry crude oil mouths, crude oil exploration and mining technology has made considerable progress.
Compared with the 21st century, in the crude oil supply market in 1995, not only did the Caspian Oil Circle, but oil-producing countries such as Iraq and Kuwait that had just experienced wars have not reached their peak production capacity. As long as crude oil producers are willing and plan well, it will be natural to increase production.
If the Pan Asia Fund formed a company, if only the existing oil fields are used for insider transactions, the risk of being sued by governments is extremely high, and the money earned is probably not enough to pay fines. However, with the preparation of the Azijiu oil field and the emergence of OPEC, increasing the production of its own crude oil will not only be more effective, but also look more innocent. In a realistic sense, accusation is still inevitable, but the work of the lawyer team is much easier, so lawyer fees and fines can naturally be saved.
"What if there are sovereign funds from oil-producing countries come forward to support the market?" Qi Xiao did not ask about the details, but changed his perspective and tried to persuade Sucheng to adopt a safer approach.
Su Cheng smiled: "OPEC is holding a summit. Which oil-producing country is so bold that it dares to let its sovereign fund come out to interfere with oil prices."
Qi Xiao was speechless. He asked the oil price to return to normal. Even if it interfered with the oil price, what would we think? However, thinking so, he knew in his heart that this was really interfering with the oil price. After all, the normal oil price cannot be viewed from a historical perspective.
"Take a table for me according to the time of the new financial institutions entering the market." Su Cheng saw that Qi Xiao was fine, so he issued an order.
When Qi Xiao left, Su Cheng turned to ask Tian Dongliang and said, "How is it? What are you getting?"
"It's too complicated." Tian Dongliang sighed heavily.
"It's a bit complicated, so please write your report concisely so that people without financial foundation can understand it."
Tian Dongliang said alertly: "I want to complete this report independently."
"Of course, it's your business, I've said this a long time ago." Su Cheng paused, looked at the watch, and smiled, "Actually, even if I want to interfere, I can't interfere."
"Um?"
"I have booked you a flight in the early morning to fly directly to Beijing. I hope you can complete this report on the plane. Don't worry, I asked them to choose the first class cabin of a large plane for easy writing. It should be enough for a whole night."
"You asked me to report tomorrow?"
"Of course. The news runs faster than people. Tomorrow, many leaders will probably be interested in your report. If you want your name to be remembered by the leaders of the State Council, tomorrow is the best time."
Tian Dongliang swallowed back what he said.
He knew that Su Cheng's purpose was to use his pen to pass on information to domestic senior management, but he also gained a lot of benefits in this matter. Although it was so insignificant compared to what Su Cheng got, Tian Dongliang did not want to give up this good opportunity to become famous.
"This guy, I've also calculated it." Tian Dongliang lowered his head, his mood fluctuations were comparable to the oil price on the electronic screen.
Chapter completed!