Chapter 1140 Crisis and Speculation

Domestic people enjoy the long holiday of Labor Day Golden Week, enterprises, institutions and units are on holidays, and Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets are closed and trading is stopped. The securities market across the Pacific is still booming, attracting the attention of most investors around the world - Americans have to wait until the first Monday in September to enjoy the Labor Day public holiday.

After three days of avalanche-like decline, the Nasdaq index began to oscillate in a tug-of-war form on the third day of May after a brief pause on weekends; although there are signs of rebound, it will eventually not be a big deal. The Nasdaq's three-day avalanche-like decline made ordinary investors understand how fragile the new economic prosperity wave advocated by Wall Street investors.

During the domestic gold circumference, the Nasdaq index has been falling continuously and has not rebounded decently. Zhang Ke and many people believe that a considerable number of investors who have escaped earlier will turn around and join the short-selling camp, increasing the pressure on the index to move downward.

In early May, the night of Jinshan was as cool as water. Tang Jing stepped on the floor with barefoot barefoot. She wore a thin printed pajama with slightly translucent light. She hugged Zhang Ke from behind, kowtowed his chin on the top of his head. Her soft and tender chin made him itchy short hair. She stared at the emails displayed on the notebook screen and asked: "Does Nick Lison send such a long report every day?"

The Labor Day of the University of Hong Kong only has one day off. In addition to the weekend, Tang Jing can only go back to the mainland for three days. She spent the first night in Jianye, and naturally went back to Jinshan to accompany her parents on the second night. Zhang Ke had limited time with Tang Jing, so he naturally had to accompany her to Jinshan to play for one more day. Fortunately, Tang Xueqian and Gu Jianping had already recognized him as his prospective son-in-law, and after arriving in Jinshan, he did not need to sleep in a fake room with Tang Jing.

Tang Xueqian had business activities to participate in at night. After Zhang Ke and his friends had a simple dinner, they went back to their room to take a shower and rest. While Tang Jing was taking a bath in the bathroom, Zhang Ke sat at the desk in his pajamas and took the time to finish reading the email. This was Nick Lisen sent him an email every day for a week.

"How can you have it every day? Just a few days more. If you have it every day, I will kill him with all my heart!" Zhang Ke grabbed Tang Jing's little hand with his back, hugged her in his arms, and let her sit on his lap.

Tang Jing sat on Zhang Ke's thigh, twisting her body restlessly, pressing the mouse to drag the email down, staring at the lengthy and boring report for a while, and couldn't help but yawn, and turned around and hugged Zhang Ke's neck, "Since you can tell that the Nasdaq has been in a downward channel for a long time, why not adjust more funds to short..."

"The Nasdaq index is fluctuating violently. Even if it can be judged that the situation will continue to deteriorate, the whole process is more complicated and sinister than ordinary people imagine..." Zhang Ke explained patiently to Tang Jing, "Misi and Samsung and other Japanese and Korean consortiums have secretly controlled hedge funds of varying numbers and sizes, but the speculation of hedge funds has never been the main business of these consortiums. Once industrial capital is labeled as speculators, it will inevitably reduce the market and consumers' trust in industrial capital... There will be no additional mobilization of funds, and the funds under hedge funds will not be concentrated in one market for profit. In addition to diversifying risks, they must also distract the attention of other forces."

During the Asian financial crisis, Kumho secretly established hedge funds overseas invested in currencies such as Thai baht, Korean won, Indonesian rupiah and other currencies in the international foreign exchange market, and made a lot of money. After that, almost 300 million US dollars of profits were included in Kumho Commercial's account in the name of corporate debt.

As the core of Kumho's industrial capital operation, Kumho Commercial Business has a debt scale of up to US$2.5 billion.

The $300 million profit from shorting Southeast Asian currencies was transferred to Kumho Commercial's account, but it did not actually play a big role. Perhaps it could only give Kumho senior management a little psychological comfort: the actual debt scale of Kumho Commercial is not the $2.5 billion on the books, but $2.2 billion. But what's the difference? With Kumho Commercial's financing ability, it can control the debt scale by about $2.5 billion. Even if the $300 million transferred from the hedge fund at the beginning, Kumho Commercial can still obtain this fund from other financial investment institutions.

After the transfer of 300 million US dollars of funds, Zhang Ke, Ye Jianbin, Sun Shangyi, Ge Mingde and others still retained nearly 100 million US dollars in the hedge fund account managed by Nick Lison in their private name. This part of the funds in the hedge fund account has achieved a lot in the overseas investment market in the past two years, with capital gains of about 60 million US dollars. This is already a pretty good achievement, but compared with the development of the industries under Kumho, it is a bit inconvenient - it is true that Kumho lacks sufficient interest in speculative behavior in the financial market.

In any case, the scale of hedge funds managed by Nick Lison is more than US$300 million. The global new economy bubble burst and the financial storm is surging again. It is precisely the time when they come out to make trouble. Nick Lison has to communicate with Zhang Ke almost every day during this period.

The bursting of the new economic wave bubble is not an accident. Even if it is not the Microsoft antitrust case that becomes the fuse, other things will become the last straw to promote the bursting of the bubble; the financial storm caused by the bursting of the bubble is destined to affect the real industry. There may be twists and turns, but the long-term development of the situation is clear at a glance. Even if Zhang Ke has memories of the past, his judgment of the situation may not be more keen than that of the people standing at the top of the Wall Street pyramid; his judgment of the timing of short selling or rebound of the Nasdaq may not be more accurate than that of Nick Leson.

In his email, Nick Lison mentioned that the U.S. Supreme Court's appeal ruling on Microsoft's antitrust case in mid-June is likely to become the next critical time node.

If Microsoft's appeal is rejected by the Supreme Court, the fate of Microsoft's spin-off will not be changed; however, the Microsoft antitrust case directly caused the Nasdaq and the global new economy capital market to oscillate like a financial tsunami. Its influence is far-reaching and far worse than ordinary people's expectations. Microsoft's spin-off possibility will be greatly reduced. In mid-June, the US federal court is very likely to make an appeal ruling that is beneficial to Microsoft, and it is very likely to induce a strong rebound of the Nasdaq index.

If speculators on Wall Street have similar views, the decline before and subsequent rebounds in the US Supreme Court's appeal ruling on Microsoft's antitrust case will likely be far beyond ordinary expectations.

Zhang Ke could only agree with Nick Lison's judgment. His achievements over the years have also confirmed that Nick Lison is an extremely excellent and keen investor, especially his keen sense of opportunities hidden in the financial crisis.

In fact, although Zhang Ke still has a deep influence on the fund, hedge funds are no longer directly controlled. Hedge funds have become private equity funds led by Nick Lison. Zhang Ke and Sun Shangyi also participate in investment purely as private investors. If funds are mobilized from the accounts of Kumho member companies, the relationship that has finally been sorted out will be complicated.

Tang Jing stayed in Jinshan for one night, and the next morning he flew directly from Jinshan to Hong Kong. Zhang Ke sent Tang Jing on the plane and then left the airport to go to the construction site of Zhongjing Microchip Kingsoft Factory. Tang Xueqian was busy with official business and had no time to take the plane. He also made an appointment to meet with Zhang Ke at the construction site.

It was only more than two months after the construction of the Jinshan Factory started, and a large area of ​​ground was surrounded by a brown iron fence, with a Metasequoia forest in the distance. Zhang Ke and Tang Xueqian parked their car outside the Metasequoia forest and walked into the Metasequoia forest. On the other side of the Metasequoia forest, there was a clear river, seventeen or eighteen meters wide, with weeds on the river beach. You know that this was a water river that was not usually noticed. Zhang Ke did not expect that there would be such clear flowing water within the Jincheng New City.

"How deeply does the financial tsunami caused by the bursting of the new economic bubble involve entities?" Tang Xueqian is still a question related to the development of enterprises.

"It's hard to say," Zhang Ke couldn't directly say that the Nasdaq index is likely to fall to about a quarter of the highest point. He didn't want to pretend to be a prophet. He still used the reports submitted by Kumho Economic Research Center and Nick Lison to explain to Tang Xueqian, "Diffusion to entities is an inevitable trend... The stock market fell so deeply, which will inevitably drag the entire new economy down the abyss. Even if the securities capital market and venture capital funds do not close the door to network companies, the door front left behind should be extremely limited. Most small and medium-sized network companies without risk capital support will find it difficult to survive - the large number of bankruptcies of network companies, in addition to the large reduction in market demand for communication basic equipment industries such as optical fiber will reduce, and the demand for electronic components such as storage chips and software will also drop significantly..."

Tang Xueqian looked at the construction site opposite the forest through the straight metasequoia forest and said, "The wafer manufacturing industry in Asia has not improved much in the past two years. Is it going to be affected again this time?"

"Well," Zhang Ke nodded and said, "If the demand for the wafer market will shrink significantly as I judge, the global wafer industry, especially the foundry field, except for a few wafer companies that can make profits, most wafer companies will fall into the quagmire of losses..."

The continued loss of China NEC is a result that can be predicted long ago. Zhang Ke also saw that Samsung may delay the construction plan of Hongxin Electronics - co-investing wafer factories with Samsung Electronics was a hot topic of speculation in the Haisu Technology market. Samsung delaying the construction of Hongxin Electronics should be considered a lot of blow to Haisu Technology, but it is not clear when it will happen.
Chapter completed!