Han Lie's extraction of the characteristics of the new round of bull market is completely different from the previous analysis logic, but it is also very thought-provoking.

Can having money be regarded as a characteristic of a bull market? Under normal circumstances, it is not possible, because abundant funds are a necessary condition for a bull market and are the underlying foundation for all bull markets. There is no concentrated injection of external funds, it all depends on the market.

How can the stock be so great?

But after Han Lie added those attributes, knowledgeable people thought about it again and finally realized the difference. There is a difference between money and money, there is a difference between more and more, and the current environment...

Hiss~~~ The venue was quiet for a moment, and suddenly there was a subtle hum. The professionals gasped, and the more they thought about it, the more surprised they became, and the more they thought about it, the more shocked they became.

Mr. Xu, who had always kept a low profile, finally couldn't help raising his hand to speak. He frowned and asked with a very serious expression: "Mr. Han, do you think this bull market is a typical capital-driven market bull?" Han Lie

Slightly surprised, Han Lie said, "Hey, you can't sit still, it's interesting." Han Lie was very sure of the chief executive's views on this bull market. It was probably when the stock index was still around 4,000 points, Mr. Xu

At a certain gathering, he made it clear: "The current fundamentals do not support the continued upward trend of the stock market, and it is now in a stage of irrational madness." But the problem still exists, "I don't understand", the sustainability is doubtful, and we don't know what will happen in the end.

end.

It is worth mentioning that Zexi also had a short position up to 5100 points. When the net value of all private equity assets was skyrocketing, he did not participate in it.

This was one of the few times when Xu Xiang fell behind his peers because he was too timid. Until the stock market crash occurred on July 9, 2015, he used more than 10 billion in funds to enter the market to buy the bottom, and he entered the market and gained profits in about half a month.

The profit was close to 80%. That battle became his battle to become a god and his last swan song in the investment world.

To be fair, Lao Xu's sensitivity to the market may be one in a million, but even a big bull like him was a little confused in the mad bull market at that time, and even went short.

Pushing forward one year, on March 22, 2014, the bull market had not yet shown any signs, but Han Lie had already predicted the biggest feature of the entire market in advance. Who could not be shocked by this?

The chief rudder's question did not stop the discussion in the venue, but instead made the noise more chaotic. "Does Mr. Xu disagree?" someone asked.

"Actually, I think it's too outrageous." Mr. Xu replied.

I think there is nothing wrong with Mr. Han’s logic, and it is indeed the case. But it is only March, and who is sure how the overall environment will change next year? Monetary policy must definitely turn, and it is impossible to continue to tighten. Cutting interest rates and lowering RRR is a big deal.

A probability event, but what if the intensity is not as strong as expected?

If there is another money shortage this year, a large part of the real industry will die. Don’t you know what active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy are?

What about real estate loan restrictions? At the meeting at the beginning of this year, purchase restrictions and cooling were emphasized. The question is, if the property market continues to decline, how long can local governments be able to withstand it? I am afraid that not only local governments cannot bear it, but transmission delays also need to be considered.

factor.

Think about the situation that Teacher Han initially summarized, combined with interest rate liberalization and the United States, there is a high probability of ending QE this year.

"We may really have to wait until we turn." The people who support Han Lie and the people who can't believe it are almost evenly divided. No one is convinced by the other. Don't look at the fact that Han Lie just said "a lot of money", which seems to be an understatement.

Yes, in fact, it contains a set of comprehensive judgments based on economic principles, and the judgment target is the future direction of the entire macroeconomic. The knowledge content is so high that it is difficult for non-professionals to imagine. Therefore, it directly fills the sense of participation.

Everyone has their own opinions, don't complain.

In the midst of such commotion, Han Lie spoke softly and responded directly to Mr. Xu. "I think so, and there are three basic logics..." After the words fell, the noisy venue suddenly became quiet, and more than 600 customers listened attentively.

"First, senior management has made it clear that the loan restriction and purchase restriction policies will not change in a short time. After the change, it will take some time to restore market confidence, so we judge that the downturn in the property market is unlikely to be effectively alleviated until the end of the year."

Therefore, the floor

The city's reservoir function is currently restricted, which will result in a large amount of funds being unable to enter the real estate market. At the same time, affected by the international and domestic environment, the central bank's monetary policy will show a clear trend, from caution to stability to stability and flexibility.

Curve.

In addition, the market-oriented reform of interest rates is also in progress, which will further promote the development of monetary easing policies in an irreversible direction. Although due to time constraints, I cannot continue to delve into this part of the content, but I suggest that you can go back and sense the general environment on your own.

Changes, and refer to teacher Chu Hongfang’s policy interpretation.

The third factor is the explosive growth of the Internet financial industry and the combination of traditional private lending, which has led to the accumulation effect of a large amount of small capital. Whether it is the emerging P2P industry, the emerging online consumer finance, or the restrictions on commercial banks

There is a strong desire to enter the market due to loan pressure, and a large amount of funds that once did not have the urge to enter the market are ready to move.

To sum up, these three factors are exerting pressure together, indicating that the momentum of this year's bull market will develop violently.

In the early stage, the stock market will show a form that is no different from previous bull markets. When the money-making effect spreads to a wider class, the influence of massive idle funds will become apparent in a very short period of time. Therefore, the current market trend

The explosive power will be significantly greater than that of 2007, and it is not a structured market but a general rising market. However, due to the continuous expansion of the market, the current total market value far exceeds the final top point of the year, and it is difficult to surpass the bull market of 2007.

Here, I would like to provide you with a purely intuitive speculation without any data basis - the high point of this bull market may not exceed 5,200 points. Please remember my prediction numbers and verify them yourself when the time comes.

.Of course, this number does not guide my operating strategy. I will constantly adjust my operating ideas based on actual market trends.

At the same time, I also want to answer the third question: How long will this bull market last?

The answer is self-evident.

Since explosiveness implies a relatively short duration, this bull market is unlikely to be a slow or long bull. I expect its duration to be roughly equivalent to my Supernova 1 closure period, which is around a year and a half

.

The above are all my judgments and reasons for this bull market. Mr. Xu, are you satisfied with my answer? "

Xu Xiang's expression was serious, but he didn't say much. Instead, he handed over the microphone and quietly held his head in thought. He obviously benefited a lot from my answer and got a lot of inspiration. Many professionals also began to fall into deep thought, and the venue gradually became quiet.

Come down.

However, Han Lie didn't care at all how much time they needed to understand, and suddenly accelerated the pace. Then, based on the judgment of general rise, my second set of fixed investment plans achieved a balance between income and safety. The investment target is

Several large-market indexes such as Shanghai 50ETF and CSI 300ETF.

If you believe in my judgment and agree that the bull market is coming, but you do not have enough stock picking knowledge or time to pay attention to the stock market, you can consider making fixed investments. In view of the fact that many of the VIPs present may not have professional knowledge and long-term investment experience,

I will not use professional terminology, but introduce to you the real industry rate of return.

As of today, there are more than 1,600 private equity funds, multiple public offerings and trust products in the industry. However, less than 8% of managers can outperform the market in the long term. What does this mean?

If you bought an index fund in 2000 and held it until the end of this year, you would have earned more than 92% of the returns achieved by various institutions. This may be unbelievable to some people, but it is the reality. Because it outperforms the market

It is a very difficult thing in itself. In addition, various private equity, public equity and other investment products will also charge subscription fees, management fees, handling fees and profit dividends.

These investment institutions are often affected by non-market factors when conducting market operations. In fact, only a very small number of investment institutions and products can truly achieve a compound annual return rate of more than 10%. Among them, Zexi, where Xu Xiang works,

The first in the industry is represented, but who can name the name and products of the third company in the private equity industry? You don’t have to be overly superstitious about the so-called professionals. They are indeed more professional than ordinary investors, but now I have disclosed the specific

Investment point, the gap between you

Where exactly is it?

In this bull market, even investment institutions may not be able to do a good job of adjusting positions and exchanging stocks, so they may not be able to outperform the market. However, ETF index funds can steadily outperform the market, and the cost is low, and there is no need to pay extra

cost.

Although I am also doing private equity myself, but you have paid a lot of money to listen to my class, so I have to tell the truth. I am not afraid of offending my colleagues, let alone settling accounts with everyone.

As far as my Supernova No. 1 fund is concerned, although I am confident that I will make high profits in this bull market, my management fee will be 5%, and the terms of profit dividends are also very harsh. In the end, the index may only rise by 2.5

times, and my Supernova No. 1 Fund made a profit of 6 times.

However, after deducting dividends and other expenses, the money you make from buying my fund may not necessarily be more than the money you make from buying ETFs. This is a fact, and my professional ethics requirements must be made clear to everyone.

Therefore, my fund is only suitable for a few types of people, such as entrepreneurs who are busy with their daily work and have no time and energy to pay attention to the stock market; such as novices without any investment foundation;

For example, rich and idle people who don't want to operate by themselves, who don't want to be emotionally affected by market fluctuations every day, and who pay more attention to the quality of life than making money.

For these people, you entrust your spare money to me, and then work and live freely, waiting for the final settlement. This is spending money to buy experience. As for other friends who have the ability to operate it by themselves, I suggest that you are better off making fixed investments on your own.

No matter how much you earn, it's all yours and you don't need to share it with anyone.

Fixed investment is very simple. When the stock index drops to about 2,000 points, choose your favorite ETF index fund to buy, such as SSE 50, CSI 300, etc. If you have 5 million spare money now, you can buy it directly, and then every two months

If you have another 5 million spare money available, you can buy it according to the situation.

You can invest at any time, and you can easily double it by holding it until the end of the bull market. The expected holding time is one and a half years, and you can get about 1.5 times the profit without leverage, and 3 to 5 times the profit with leverage. Since you enter the market

The point is more than 1900 points, and the risk is almost zero.

I would dream to see ICBC fall below 3 yuan, and I would be happy to buy one or two billion. But this is not realistic. Therefore, I expect that my Tianji No. 1 fund will use about twice the leverage.

Buy a considerable portion of ETF index funds as ballast.

I dare to disclose my investment ideas, do you dare? Spending 2 million tickets to hear such in-depth sharing is definitely worth the money. After Han Lie finished speaking, applause sounded again. Many novice investors who just came to join in the fun also

Emotions are aroused and enthusiasm is high. I want to slap my hands in pieces.

"Teacher Han is so awesome!" People who are not familiar with Han Lie expressed heartfelt emotions. "He is so frank, so kind, and so real. He is so touching." Someone said, "This is what we call being capable, moral, and competent."

I’m looking for fund managers who are high-minded and ambitious.”

Brothers, vote for him!

And those private equity colleagues are in trouble! "Damn it, if you don't want to make money, don't drag us to death together!" But in fact, I will sell my two funds and make a lot of money.

Then cut off relations with them. These big guys in the same industry glared at Han Lie and hated him, but they were powerless. The private equity industry is very independent and highly technical. A few so-called big guys can work together to make profits, but they cannot influence

Other peers. In the private equity circle, there is no situation where the big brothers work together to suppress the younger brothers, which is common in other industries.

How to encircle and suppress people? They all crowded into the same check, and they didn’t know who was carrying the sedan chair for whom. Gou Lie sacrificed his colleagues and established his own image and reputation, which was a real gain.

Among the more than 600 people present, only a few were private equity peers. Most of the participants were new and old investors, and their recognition and admiration are my most important wealth. With this wave of emotional fluctuations, I started the most important operation today

.

"Okay, let's stop for a moment and seize the time to introduce all three plans today." I waved my hand with a smile and turned the PPT to the last two pages.

"The first two plans can be operated by you. They pay more attention to safety and are low-risk operations that do not earn excess returns. If you are an enthusiast who insists on high risks and high returns,

Progressive investors then asked me for specific stocks. To be honest, I didn’t have any.

I don’t know how the market will go, which sectors, and which stocks will become the monsters and kings. I’m not a fortune teller, so I can’t talk irresponsibly. I can only do my best to catch the market when it comes out.
To be continued...