"This week the US dollar rebounded against both European currencies and commodity currencies, and the euro against the US dollar, the pound against the US dollar, etc. have made technical adjustments from recent relatively highs, with an amplitude of about three percent. The US dollar against the foot basin did not rebound significantly.

Although the US dollar has been slightly stronger overall this week, it is expected to return to weak consolidation after a brief technical rebound..."

"I don't agree with this point of view!"

As the meeting went on, the discussion among the crowd became more and more lively. After all, the foreign exchange market became the focus of the discussion. After all, everyone knows that the boss is currently selling the euro with a heavy position, and everyone wants to perform in this investment to stand out.

In this regard, Arthur was optimistic and encouraged everyone to argue. He smiled and looked at an analyst who had just spoken and said with a smile: "Scott, tell me what you think."

"Okay, boss. I believe everyone has seen the US economic data released today. It has performed well generally, which undoubtedly increased investors' expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates early. The US dollar strengthened sharply on Friday, the 11th. The US dollar index once hit a one-month high, the euro fell below the 1.4600 mark against the US dollar, and once hit a two-month low.

The Bald Eagle Department of Commerce announced on Friday that the monthly retail sales rate in the United States rose by 1.3% in November, while the expected monthly retail sales rate was only 0.7%, while the expected monthly retail sales rate was 1.2%, and the expected monthly retail sales rate was 0.4%.

A report released on Friday showed that US consumer confidence rose in early December and reached its highest point since September. After retail sales data, the US dollar was already on an upward trend. After the consumer confidence data was released, the US dollar rose almost "crazy", and the euro fell below the 1.4600 mark against the US dollar, reaching a low of 1.4586, the lowest since early October."

The analyst named Scott talked freely, and all kinds of data were easily used to prove his point of view. Whether it was the boss Arthur or the others in the conference room, they all listened to his analysis with a focused expression.

"Retail sales data performed strongly, and subsequent consumer confidence data released were also stronger than expected, which further supported the strengthening of the US dollar. The market had been very shorting the US dollar for some time, but as the outlook for the US economy improved, shorting the US dollar became less attractive to investors.

So, I think today's dollar rebound may be the beginning of further improvement in the future US dollar sentiment. As long as there is more US economic data supporting the view that recovery is further established, the dollar will rise further in the short term."

Scott's analysis was very well-established and was recognized by many people present. One of the analysts said in a low voice: "I fully agree with Scott's analysis. Previously, strong US data would improve investors' risk appetite and lead to stronger high-yield currencies such as the euro and the Australian dollar. But the current better US data can better enhance investors' expectations of the Fed's early interest rate hike, which can help the US dollar rise.

Don’t forget that rising U.S. Treasury yields have also helped the dollar rebound, especially against the dollar. The outlook for the dollar is improving."

Arthur nodded in contemplation. He did not tend to xing. To be honest, he felt that these views of his subordinates were very reasonable, because everyone could come up with theories and data to prove their views. Since this is the case, he could not express his opinion easily.

So, he turned his attention to Angela, an investment and financial consultant who has been listening since the meeting and has not expressed any opinions or opinions, and asked with a smile: "Angela, what do you think?"

As Arthur asked, the originally noisy conference room immediately became quiet, and everyone turned their attention to Angela, a key figure who had completely become the right-hand man of the young boss.

Angela was calm about everyone's attention and said calmly: "Boss, the recovery information of the US data, such as the decline in unemployment rate, will indeed strengthen the expectation of the Fed's early interest rate hike, which is also the logic that led to a stage of rebound in the US dollar.

But I think this process is just technical, not very strong, nor will it last for a long time. The market sentiment turmoil caused is normal, after all, the market has risen for 9 months since March.

I have doubts about the stabilization of the US economy. Because at the end of October, nine U.S. banks went bankrupt within a single day and set a new record since the financial crisis, which undoubtedly exposed the loose monetary environment that failed to offset the liquidity pressure of the US banking industry, and the non-performing loan problem is still weakening the lending capacity of the banking industry.

Hidden concerns in fundamentals will restrict the recovery of private demand. The deleveraging of household and financial sectors is not smooth. Although the household savings rate in the United States is rising, the debt ratio has not decreased. Now it seems that the so-called "consumer deleveraging" is a dead end of rebalancing and cannot lead the US economy to balance at all.

More importantly, the weak dollar will overall increase the operating costs of traditional industrial fields. In other words, only when traditional resources and energy are soaked in "water" can a large amount of investments continue to enter the low-carbon economy and fully ensure the safety of these investments.

Only "re-industrialization" can achieve the path of growth in disposable income, and the emergence of new wealth can reduce the debt ratio of households and countries. This is a strategy. Therefore, before the United States completes its new strategic layout, the global economy will be in the "popular ocean" of flow for a long time.

Of course, the above logic must have a premise, the weak dollar and inflation must be controllable. This depends on the ability of Americans and whether market rational expectations will really appear. It seems that this possibility exists now.

This may be a long-term process. I really can't believe that the bubble will burst in 2010, and it may not be possible in 2011, and it is hard to say in the future. Before the new economic factors are established, the global commodity and emerging market asset bubbles will not really burst. Of course, there will be turbulence, and even the stage will be very severe, but overall, assets and commodity prices will become very expensive.

At the same time, stocks will be very turbulent because they are not assets in general and are to some extent emotional reactions to asset prices turbulence.

It depends on whether investors dare to capitalize the improvement in short-term performance indefinitely extrapolated and capitalized, which is the key to the new valuation upward movement.

If the market agrees that this improvement is in stages and there is great uncertainty in the future, this growth will become economically meaningless.

Perhaps the market is short-sighted and irrational, and is willing to deal with uncertainty as certainty, there is nothing we can do, but this money-making model belongs to zero sum, it depends on who is the final receiver.

To sum up, my view is that the US dollar will continue to weaken. This is a strategy formulated by the Bald Eagle. Even if there will be a rebound in the short term, it will not change the general trend. Gold will still be the main safe-haven investment option, assets will become more and more expensive, the European debt crisis will become more and more intense, the euro will continue to depreciate, the bearish outlook for the exchange rate remains unchanged, the target is 1.4480 to 1.4450, and it may even rush to 1.4280."

Angela's series of analysis and conclusions made a brief silence in the conference room, and then there were various discussions. People gathered together in groups of three or three to start discussing some of Angela's views.

Arthur nodded to Angela with his eyes and admired it, saying, "Excellent analysis!"

I have to say that Angela's conclusions are basically the same as the development trend in his memory, which is already very rare in Arthur's opinion. At least in the future, he will not have to worry about Angela's ability or what he believes in is unhuman.

This meeting, which was about the strategy for the coming year, lasted for more than three hours until lunch time was approaching. The meeting also brought many surprises to Arthur, especially when viewed with memory, which made him full of confidence in his team.

The future is promising!
Chapter completed!