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Chapter 397 Jiang Baili's Analysis

The three of them agreed to bring the Soviet commander to the Soviet port, and Uncle Lin immediately sent an invitation to the Soviet commander in the name of Hu Yunfeng. Hu Yunfeng thought it would be quite difficult to invite the Soviet commander over there. However, after Uncle Lin's invitation was sent, he received a reply the next day, and most of them would set off for the Soviet port in two days.

Before the Soviet commander came, Hu Yunfeng asked Jiang Baili to make a decision based on the information obtained and the Soviet-German war report. Why did Germany fight so badly? Jiang Baili was a strategist, and this kind of analysis was very good. In addition, the complete pre-war information and war reports of the Soviet-German war, Jiang Baili made an analysis report that shocked Hu Yunfeng in just one day.

Seeing Hu Yunfeng's surprised face, Jiang Baili took it and smiled and said to Hu Yunfeng: "Commander-in-Chief, let me explain to you the analysis I made."

Hu Yunfeng nodded, and Jiang Baili immediately said:

1. Germany's internal affairs and diplomacy before the Soviet-German War

Long before Hitler ran for Prime Minister in Congress, Hitler and his Nazi Party tried every means to please the German Army, hoping to get the support of the army in a series of plans and conspiracies in the future. However, the German Army's always professional nature made them unwilling to be interfered by politicians. Therefore, when Hitler became the head of state and dreamed of conquering the entire Europe and even the world, the generals of the army expressed their coldness. They did not have Hitler's ambitions, nor did they want to be led by this "outsider". However, a series of facts that came true later appeared, and the German army was against Austria.

The Czechoslovakian occupation troops were not bloody, and they were easy to win against Poland and Norway. These victories made the generals of the army better towards Hitler and began to support him. Although this support cleared some obstacles for Hitler to lead the army, the fact that Von Braushich was appointed commander-in-chief of the army also showed that the army had lost their previous professionalism, and the Army General Command became an execution tool for Hitler to issue orders. This arbitrary military style will inevitably become a serious hidden danger in future large-scale offensive operations.

In terms of economic and industrial production, Germany is a country with severe resources. What made Hitler even more trouble was that the German offensive mainly relied on the leading assault role of armored forces, but with Germany's industrial capabilities, it could no longer achieve a qualitative breakthrough in tank production. According to the requirements of General Guderian, the father of the blitzkrieg, with the offensive goals that Germany would achieve in the future, the German military factory needed to increase the tank production to 800-1,000 vehicles/month, and the minimum standard could not be lower than 600 vehicles/month. However, under Hitler's strong request, the operation of the military industry was still 100% more effort, and the tank production could only be increased to 230 vehicles/month. An observation group sent by Germany to the Soviet Union before the war was surprised to find that the number of tanks produced by only one tank factory in the Soviet Union in one day was only found.

There were 22 vehicles, which was beyond the reach of Germany. In terms of fuel supply, Germany could no longer buy a large amount of oil through trade means. The easiest solution was to first achieve control of the Balkans and Southern Europe. Germany needed every drop of oil from Bulgaria and Romania to maintain the operation of armored and mechanized forces. Here we should mention the Battle of the Balkans in the spring of 1941, when Italy started a war against Greece without authorization. Although the German "Marita" operation completely eliminated the British forces' power in the Balkans and ensured Germany's resource control and transportation over the region, due to the poor performance of the Italian army, the time for the German attack on the Soviet Union had to be postponed for nearly a month, which indirectly laid the groundwork for the German army's inability to achieve the goal within the scheduled time in the future in the war against the Soviet Union.

Due to the importance of the Balkans and Southern Europe to the German fuel supply, the German army's principle for the region was to support puppets as the main and military occupation as the auxiliary. Another benefit of doing so was that it could obtain war support from the Pucong team who acted as cannon fodder for the German army. Hitler also used some small countries bordering the Soviet Union and used them to become their own allies. A typical example was Finland. Strictly speaking, after the Soviet-German War, Finland's war against the Soviet Union had no necessary connection with fascist invasion.

They truly regained their territory occupied by the Soviet army in 1940. As for the Soviet Union itself, Hitler knew that the most effective way to achieve the ideal conditions for blitzkrieg was to paralyze the will of the Soviet leaders and relax their vigilance. Germany not only signed the "Non-aggression Treaty" with the Soviet Union, which lasted for 10 years, but also strengthened bilateral mutual aid trade with the Soviet Union. These measures made Stalin still believe that Germany's threat was just a frightening bluff.

The German army had a chance to win, but the problem was that Hitler and the army had different choices for strategic goals. Hitler knew the importance of strategic resources to the country and the army, so he did not advocate concentrating his forces in the direction of the Central Army, but concentrated on the southern line, occupying Ukraine's grain-producing areas, the coal-producing areas and industrial bases in Donbas, and then entering the Caucasus and occupying the oil fields of Grossini and Baku. The army paid more attention to Moscow's strategic position, hoping to fight the Soviet army under the city of Moscow. The honor of occupying Moscow is one aspect, and more importantly, Moscow is the transportation hub of the Soviet Union. Occupy Moscow is equivalent to dividing the Soviet army into two parts that cannot produce strategic coordination.

Both goals were completed, and the Soviet Union would be paralyzed as a whole. It is very likely that Stalin would be forced to negotiate with Germany, if it were not surrender. The strategic differences between the problematic army and Hitler gave the Soviet Union a chance to survive. In the summer of 1941, if Guderi installed the A-level army to take Moscow directly, with the momentum of the German offensive at that time, believed that the Soviet capital was just a piece of the bag, and the occupation of Moscow would be fatal to the Soviet Union. However, Hitler ordered Guderian to rotate southward, return to the establishment of the South Army Group, cooperated with the South Army Group to carry out the Foundation Battle, annihilated 600,000 Soviet troops. Since Hitler had already placed his strategic goal in Southern Russia, Guderian should continue to stay in the South Army Group, swept the Donbass Basin, and directly took Rostov, and then occupied the southern foothills of the Caucasus.

The ability of the German army is not a problem. Then the realization of this strategic goal is also fatal to the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, Hitler succumbed to the pressure of the army and ordered Guderi to install the A-level army to return the Central Army group and attack again in the direction of Moscow. However, precious time has been lost, the continuous autumn rain and the terrible winter have arrived, and the German army's attack has become the end of its strength. In the central direction, although 600,000 Soviet troops were wiped out in Viazima, the offensive had to be terminated under the city of Moscow. The German army on the southern front only reached Rostov and was unable to advance. Objectively speaking, it cannot be said that Hitler's thinking was wrong, nor can it be said that Guderian and Braushich were wrong. The mistake was that no strategic action was firm, and hesitating in two strategic directions was a taboo!

2. German weapons and their military operations before the Soviet-German War

According to General Guderian's idea, the German army will have two different uses in future wars, one is the main battle tank equipped with anti-tank guns, and the other is the infantry support tank equipped with close-range and medium-range howitzers. This idea eventually formed the Panzeel iii and Panzeel iv tanks. However, due to the limitations of the Versailles Contract, Germany did not allow the equipment of armored vehicles, which made Germany still underdeveloped in the tank design. Putting aside radio technology, in terms of the three basic performances of the tank - firepower, protection and mobility, German tanks, especially before 1941, were much worse than French and Soviet tanks. Although French tanks did not pay attention to mobility, the main medium-sized tank Soma 35

The speed is above the Mark II type, France also has BB heavy tanks, and Germany's development in heavy tanks is even more blank. The achievements made by the Soviet Union in tank development are even more out of reach by the Germans. Taking the BT series tanks as an example, the maximum speed of the BT-7 tank reached 80 kilometers per hour, and the 45mm guns equipped with the German No. 3 tanks before the Soviet-German War can compete with the 50mm L-42 guns equipped by the German No. 3 tanks before the Soviet-German War. Although the BT series tanks are thinner and are easily destroyed, relatively speaking, at the same distance, the BT series tanks can also destroy German No. 3 tanks. Of course, the Germans did not know that the Soviet Union had equipped more advanced KV series tanks and T-34 tanks in 1940.

The limited industrial capacity and the overload requirements in tank production have made German tanks not only slow production speed, but also often new technical problems. Although the German army firmly grasped air supremacy in the entire combat operations against Western Europe, the weaknesses of the German tanks themselves were clearly exposed, namely: insufficient armor protection and poor artillery power. After the Battle of France, Hitler decided to strengthen the Panzeel III tank and converted the original 37mm gun into a 50mm L-60 rapid-fire gun. If the German army installed such guns before the War of the Soviet Union, the outcome of the Soviet-German War might have undergone some subtle changes.

In terms of other weapons, Germany could only invest 2,400 combat aircraft in the war against the Soviet Union and could not increase it anymore. In the Battle of France, the German Air Force invested 4,000 combat aircraft. Even so, the damage of German tanks reached 50%. It is not difficult to imagine that with a little more than half of the number of fighter aircraft invested in the Battle of France, if we want to complete all ground support tasks when dealing with the Soviet Union with a territory of 22 million square kilometers, we will be able to complete all ground support tasks.

How difficult and unrealistic it is. In terms of anti-tank weapons, the German army learned from the lessons of the French Battle and designed the more powerful Parker 38 anti-tank gun. This gun can penetrate 80mm armor plates at an ideal angle within a distance of 500 meters. Of course, it is far worse than its big brother's 88mm air defense gun, because it is equipped with a powerful 88mm air defense gun, which theoretically ensures that any Soviet tank can be destroyed.

3. German military deployment and combat thoughts before the Soviet War

As soon as the Balkans ended, the German armored troops began to march to the east and joined forces that were already in place on the Soviet-German border. The start of the Soviet war was re-scheduled on June 22. In the second large-scale operation, the German army invested 75% of the total army's total force in the Eastern Front, with a total of 3.05 million people. However, the German general mobilization has not yet begun. One reason is that Hitler and the Army Baseball estimated the forces that the Soviet Union could invest too low. They believed that the Soviet Union deployed 200 divisions within the territory, while in fact, the Soviet army deployed more than 360 divisions within the territory. However, in France

In the Battle of Lanci, Hitler also reserved 45 divisions of troops as the general reserve team. On the eve of the Soviet War, Hitler only reserved 15 divisions of troops, which shows that Hitler's ideological preparation for the Soviet war was far from enough, resulting in serious shortage of reserve troops and certain special supplies, including his refusal to prepare winter supplies for the German army, which posed two hidden dangers. If the German army could not achieve the predetermined target within the remittance time due to insufficient troops in the Soviet War, there would be no sufficient troops to mobilize; if the German army could not complete the decisive victory in the Soviet war before the arrival of winter.

Before the Soviet War, the war in North Africa had begun. In order to seize the opportunity before Germany launched the war against the Soviet Union, Mussolini strongly asked Hitler to help him solve the adverse situation of the Italian army on the battlefield, he strongly asked Hitler to transfer two armored divisions to North Africa to support. Due to the upcoming war against the Soviet Union, Hitler no longer had the extra energy to consider the situation on other battlefields, nor did he support his allies, but this ally still needed some care. Although he was reluctant, Hitler transferred two armored divisions to North Africa to help the Italians. However, his thoughtful concern did not allow Hitler to further consider the importance of the highest commander of the German army in North Africa, or in other words, he did not consider more whether this decision would be correct.

The Soviet-German War will have an impact. As a soldier, Hitler should be clear about the truth that "the strong generals have no weak soldiers under them." At this moment, the Soviet-German War is about to break out. At this moment, an excellent commander will bring victory to his troops and even the entire war. General Erwin Rommel was transferred to the North African battlefield. We cannot evaluate that if this general served on the Soviet-German battlefield, it would have caused some change to the war. However, although the land in North Africa gave him an international reputation in World War II and he himself was promoted to marshal in 1942, in fact, Rommel was wasted his outstanding military talents because he was sent to the area that Hitlermo did not care about, and his outstanding military talents were wasted. His military career would inevitably end in failure.

In order to attack the Soviet Union, the German army was divided into three major army groups in terms of its headquarters deployment. In the northern and central clusters, Hopner, Hott and Guderian were all smart, capable and decisive commanders. Klester, the commander of the 1st armored cluster, was the most thoughtful army officer in the German army. He was born in an infantry and expressed doubts about the ability of armored troops to break through deep into the enemy. During the Battle of France, his conservative orders were often the main reason for the dispute between Klester and Guderian. Hitler asked the general to be the commander of the armored cluster, which greatly reduced the tactical breakthrough ability of the Southern Army Group, which had the most powerful infantry among the three army groups, almost fell into the quagmire of positional war shortly after the war started.

In the entire Barbarossa plan, its main plan is: the Northern Army Group encircles the Baltic Sea coastal areas, and the Central Army Group completes the annihilation of the main Soviet army's defense on the western front by encircling Minsk and Smolensk. After that, the two Army Group will work together to capture Leningrad, and the German army will occupy some important ports to maintain supplies and complete the northern combat plan. The Southern Army Group will further its own forces into Ukraine and advance along the Dnieper River, then attack the Soviet Southwest Front and annihilate it. After that, the Southern Army Group will attack the Caucasus.

, the main purpose was to cut off the main oil transportation of the Soviet Union. That is to say, the German army had to officially launch a general attack on Moscow on the premise of occupying Leningrad and Smolensk and completing the annihilation of the Ukrainian Soviet army by the Southern Army Group. However, in terms of specific details and new situations that may exist in the attack, Hitler did not consider the problem from a front. He just said that "whether Moscow is the main attack direction should be determined according to the situation." This simple idea made it repeatedly and rashly change its active direction in the Soviet-German war and abandon the priority of its strategy. Except for Hitt

In addition to Le's own reasons, the Barbarossa plan itself has many "taken of course" details. For example: Hitler emphasized that the main force of the Soviet army must be annihilated to the west of the Dnieper River and the Dvine River, but the task of the Southern Army Group did not clearly state that it must cross the Dnieper River when advancing southwest. It is obvious that the Soviet army cannot easily let the German army cut off its retreat from the Dnieper River as if it was cut into cakes. Therefore, Kiev, located on the Dnieper River, either attacked half of it and gathered a large number of troops to prevent the Soviet army from carrying out counterattacks on the other side of the river, or crossed.
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